The Los Angeles Rams will face the New York Jets in Week 16. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Rams and Jets skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 16 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Aaron Rodgers, QB
Oh, buddy.
I get a hard time for my, let’s say, lack of word efficiency. If I were creating a résumé based on how I write, I’d flip that weakness into a strength and label it as an “unbridled work ethic that will stop at nothing to provide the most detailed and well-thought-out analysis.” But I get it, and you’re right.
More is more in my head when it comes to writing. Ask any boss I’ve worked for, ask my wife, ask my hot water-heater guy that I’m bouncing this Aaron Rodgers profile off of right now.
I’m wordy. Sue me.
For Rodgers, it’s deserving. My hunch is that you’ve seen the clips of him throwing Davante Adams open, racking up 600+ yards over a two-week Florida spin, and generally playing with a smile on his face. That’s all great and maybe you took a flier on him at the beginning of the month and are benefiting in a major way.
Great. Love that for you.
Aaron Rodgers over the last 2 weeks:
💥 628 yards
💥 4 TDs
💥 0 INTsDavante Adams over the last 2 weeks:
💥 18 receptions
💥 307 yards
💥 3 TDsWe're seeing this duo at the level we always hoped to see 🥹#Jets pic.twitter.com/LJhyT1UBG2
— Harrison Glaser (@NYJetsTFMedia) December 16, 2024
But does any of that production get you a win in Week 16? Not in my leagues, so let’s evaluate this week as its own entity.
This season, 39.1% of Rodgers’ touchdown passes have come from outside the red zone, an unsustainably high rate. The league average trends around 70%, and while Rodgers doesn’t have to apologize for the chunk plays resulting in touchdowns, it’s not the easiest thing to continue doing at any point, let alone as the weather flips.
Counting on those scores becomes even more difficult against a Rams defense. Los Angeles hasn’t allowed a touchdown pass from outside the red zone in four of its past six games and in seven of 11 after a slow start. They also happen to grade out as the sixth-best red-zone defense in the NFL, so banking on red-zone touchdown pass regression for Rodgers isn’t exactly a safe bet, either.
There’s more.
In Aaron Donald’s last Defensive Player of the Year season (2020), the Rams created pressure on 44.2% of blitzes. That’s a strong mark that ranked sixth that season, with the Chiefs leading the way at 49.8%.
The Rams currently sit at 50%. Now we are onto something. Since the beginning of 2022, Rodgers has thrown a touchdown on 3.4% of such (pressured while blitzed) attempts. I assume you need context on that rate, and I’m nothing if not a man of the people.
- NFL average: 4.8%
Need more? Fine, needy reader. The almighty quartet of Aidan O’Connell, Gardner Minshew II, Mac Jones, and Daniel Jones have a 3.5% pass touchdown rate over that stretch.
Not pretty.
Rodgers has been absurdly productive over the past two weeks in play-action situations (19.9 yards per completion and 11.6 yards per attempt), but why fake the run if it’s not being stopped?
Through 15 weeks, against running backs, the Rams rank 22nd in rushing TD rate inside the five-yard line, 25th in EPA, and 26th in third-down conversion rate.
With freezing temperatures expected at MetLife with some wind to consider, looking for a 41-year-old to sustain the excellence he showed in sunny Florida recently is optimistic.
So, yeah, the fact that Rodgers has thrown for more yards in consecutive second halves than he did in any of his three full games prior is a fun and accurate stat. I want to see discount double-check celebrations at the end of a lost season as much as anyone, but there’s not a chance I’m putting the fate of my fantasy season in Rodgers’ hands in this ultra-specific spot.
Matthew Stafford, QB
Matthew Stafford has 17 touchdown passes against just two interceptions this season when not pressured (two touchdowns and two picks when feeling the heat). Why do I mention that?
Jets blitz rates, 2024:
- Weeks 3-7: 31.6%
- Weeks 8-15: 26.5%
Stafford is checking all of the boxes I need from a pocket-locked passer. Over his last two games, he’s completed 78.9% of passes in enemy territory with a 134.2 passer rating. He’s making the most of those opportunities and against a downward-trending defense, and that’s enough for me to consider him as a low-end QB1.
Braelon Allen, RB
The hope was that we would get a Bucky Irving-type late-season spurt from Braelon Allen, but that narrative was halted in a hurry. For some reason, the team opted to play Breece Hall last week, and that relegated Allen to a bench role.
The talented rookie was on the field for just 18.5% of offensive snaps, his third-lowest rate of the season and a role that resulted in just two opportunities. Allen may fill a role as a top-five handcuff next season, and that’ll be roster-worthy, but you can move on for a player with a more immediate role upside for right now.
Blake Corum, RB
Blake Corum gets his drive or two a game, and that’s cute. It’s also infuriating for those holding Kyren Williams’ bags, but that’s all it is. It’s just a wrinkle, not a feature.
The rookie has posted a sub-20% snap share in consecutive games and for the bulk of the season, outside of an outlier Week 13 win against the Saints, in which he was on the field for 32.7% of the Rams’ plays.
Corum has yet to clear eight touches in a game this season. While holding a handcuff was a logical strategy up to this point, you’re in go-for-it mode now. You don’t need to cut ties with Corum, but if you’re trying to maximize the number of Flex options you have in a do-or-die situation, I’d much rather use that roster spot for a home-run-hitting receiver or a secondary RB where there are questions about the starter.
As things stand right now, we have no reason to think that Williams will see anything less than his standard workload this week, which means that Corum doesn’t project as a usable piece.
Isaiah Davis, RB
Isaiah Davis is a fifth-round pick out of South Dakota State who has seen his usage increase lately. His 19 touches over the past two weeks are interesting but not impactful in terms of how I’m approaching Week 16.
At the end of the day, he’s more of a drain on Breece Hall/Braelon Allen than a threat to realistically be ranked as a viable option. This recent Aaron Rodgers heater impacts his two star receivers and leaves a committee backfield feeding on the scraps.
Breece Hall, RB
Breece Hall returned from a knee injury and was essentially the leader of a full-blown committee.
Not ideal.
Four different Jets handled New York’s first four carries last week, and that’s a problem. I still have Hall labeled as the leader in this backfield, and that makes him a Flex option when you consider the matchup (LAR: sixth-worst points per drive defense).
He averaged 4.6 yards per carry for his career with a 75.3% catch rate. He’s certainly not the lead back we were hoping for back in September, but I think you can still get away with playing him this weekend.
Kyren Williams, RB
Who among us doesn’t like a sandwich?
Exactly, no one. It’s compliment sandwich time for Kyren Williams managers who are hoping to ride Los Angeles’ bell cow to the promised land as the Rams chase a divisional title.
The role.
Williams is featured at a level that essentially no one can compete with these days. He enters Week 16 having notched 29 carries and multiple catches in consecutive games, joining Le’Veon Bell as the only players with such a streak since 2012.
If you gave me this role, a scrawny nerd who has been writing about fake sports for nearly two decades, I’d be somewhere on the low end of Flex considerations — we’re talking about a built-in floor that is nothing short of elite.
The bad.
Williams produced at a rate that was 33% under expectation on Thursday night. It was his third-worst showing of the season and the eighth time in 14 games in which his on-paper production has failed to reach what we would have expected from an average NFL back given his exact role.
The rebound.
“It was his third-worst showing of the season.” True. What’s also true is that all three of those games have come on the road against divisional opponents who have more familiarity with the intricacies of this offense than the other 28 teams in the NFL. Guess what? Three road divisional games are all you get for a season!
This season, Williams has produced 10.7% over expectation when not on the road against NFC West teams (39% under expectation in those three games), and that’s the version I think you can bank on seeing this week — a moderately efficient RB with the most advantageous role in the game.
Last week left you wanting more; I don’t think that’s the case here.
Davante Adams, WR
It only took all season, but we FINALLY got the vintage version of Davante Adams that we’ve been starved for. The instances over the past 10 years in which a player had 190 receiving yards and multiple receiving touchdowns in a single half:
- Davante Adams on Sunday vs. the Jaguars
- Ja’Marr Chase in Week 10 vs. the Ravens
- Tyreek Hill in 2020 vs. the Bucs
- Odell Beckham Jr. in 2016 vs. the Ravens
The Week 15 performance was about as perfect as it gets. He even got you a bonus point — he had a touchdown correctly overturned (down at the one-yard line) and followed it up with a score on the next play, getting you two receptions and a score for the price of one!
Adams has seen six end-zone targets over his past five games and has seen at least 11 balls thrown his way in five of six. If you’ve managed to get to this point with Adams on your roster, you’re in a good spot.
You also have support. I have Adams in a dynasty league that is in the semifinals — let’s see if we can piece together a late-season run for the ages!
Cooper Kupp, WR
We see elite-receiver tandems on occasion, but they are rare. There are instances in which, for a period of time, both alpha receivers are functioning at the peak of their powers, and we get something truly special.
But more often than not, one sees their stock rise while the other fades, making it only a matter of time until the narrative flips and the incumbent becomes the second read, the undercard, and the player whose name carries more weight than their production.
- 2003 with Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce
- 2009 with Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin
- 2017 with Davante Adams and Jordy Nelson
There is a changing of the guard that is uncomfortable for the nostalgic and difficult to pinpoint at the moment. It’s much easier to do what I am doing here and find endpoints with 8-21 years of hindsight in my pocket.
Are we there in Los Angeles? Is Cooper Kupp now Robin to Puka Nacua’s Batman?
I’m not far from going there. I’m not making sweeping claims as a reaction off of Kupp’s second catch-less effort of his career. But the recent advanced profile paints a convincing picture and certainly has me believing that these two are ranked in different stratospheres entering 2025.
Before I get into the long-term analysis (hey, I have to provide value to everyone, not just those fortunate enough to still be chasing a 2024 title, right?), here’s why you should still be starting the veteran receiver.
On the whole, without segmenting certain predictive areas, Kupp’s metrics are still on par with last season, if not ahead. His productivity relative to expectations falls within the 5% margin for error, just like it did in 2023, while his PPR points per target (1.75) are eerily similar (1.73).
Kupp’s overall yards per route are up 12.8%. Like the examples listed above, the veteran WR1 doesn’t fall off a cliff by traditional standards, he’s just not what he was, and that’s where the deeper dive can shed some predictive light as we begin to think about 2025 values.
- First six games: 32.4% on-field target share and a 29% red-zone target rate
- Last four games: 25.5% on-field target share and an 8.3% red-zone target rate
In the snapshot of 2024, that’s a disturbing trend that is unlikely to reverse course as Nacua’s stock takes off, but it’s not the most damning. Think about the best four WRs in the sport.
Pause.
Do it and jot it down.
I’m going to go out on a limb and say that Nacua, Nico Collins, Justin Jefferson, and Ja’Marr Chase populated the majority of your list, if not all of it. Those also happen to be the top four names on the receiver leaderboard this season when it comes to yards per route run when their quarterback is under pressure.
That tracks, right? When a signal-caller is feeling the heat, he’s going to seek a comfort target, and why would he not go where he is most comfortable?
Kupp’s yards per route when his QB is pressured by season:
- 2021: 2.58 yards
- 2022: 2.05
- 2023: 1.80 (Nacua: 1.64)
- 2024: 0.74 (Nacua: 3.04)
Oh boy. Kupp has been falling down my preliminary 2025 rankings for a month now, and I’m officially worried — for next season. There’s enough meat on the statistical bone to go back to him this week and for as long as your 2024 extends after last Thursday’s airball.
However, write it in the notes section of your phone now: Kupp isn’t likely to be the price of admission next season.
Puka Nacua, WR
Nacua Matata, it means no worries. Puka Nacua entered this season with high expectations after a historic rookie season, and I’ll admit it, I was one of the skeptics. Not that he wasn’t talented, but that he’d have trouble establishing himself as an elite asset alongside of a healthy Cooper Kupp, something that wasn’t the case when he debuted a season ago.
Wrong, wrong, wrong.
As an encore to his massive rookie season, Nacua is averaging 6.1% more PPR points per target this season and has thrown his name in the ring for 1.01 consideration this summer.
Sheesh!
Try this on for size. Over his last five games, Nacua has earned 52 targets on 130 routes. In 2023, he ran 571 routes – if you transposed his recent target per route number over that full season total, we’d be looking at 228.4 targets; if you assign his career catch rate to that figure, a record-breaking 156 receptions.
That’s just a creative way to get to the point you’re already well aware of – this dude is a difference-maker of the highest order. The dead Jets gave up over 20 PPR points to both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle the last time they faced a reliable pocket passer.
To say they don’t have an answer for Nacua would be an understatement. Look for your WR1 to clear 95 receiving yards or score for a seventh straight game and give you every chance imaginable to advance in your playoff bracket.
Demarcus Robinson, WR
We were monitoring a shoulder injury for Demarcus Robinson early last week (DNP on Monday and Tuesday), but he ultimately suited up against the 49ers and filled his traditional role (Week 15: 78.6% snap share, 2024: 81.6%).
Having Robinson at close to full strength is nice, but it doesn’t matter. The Rams have won three straight games, and during that run, the Puka Nacua/Cooper Kupp tandem has vacuumed in 59.5% of the team’s targets; a crazy rate when you consider that there is a Kupp zero-catch effort in that sample.
Robinson had moments as a reasonable WR handcuff of sorts this season. But with both stars ahead of him currently healthy, there’s no reason to hold. This is a receiver who has played for three franchises over the past four years and could well again be on the move this summer.
Barring a featured role, Robinson won’t be a top-50 receiver for me next season.
Garrett Wilson, WR
With Davante Adams breaking out last week, Garrett Wilson posted his first game this season with single-digit expected PPR points (9.7). Even if you think that all is right in New York, that Aaron Rodgers has found himself, and that the vintage connection with Adams is sticky for the short term, you’re still playing Wilson as a fine WR2.
In Adams’ last strong Packer season, Robert Tonyan caught 11 touchdown passes, and I’ve long said “What is Garrett Wilson but a rich man’s Robert Tonyan?”
It’s getting overlooked because of the historic second half from Adams, but Week 15 started with all three of Rodgers’ first-drive passes going in the direction of Wilson (41 yards, TD).
The Rams are a bottom-10 defense when it comes to defending the deep ball in yards per attempt, yards per completion, interception rate, and touchdown percentage — Wilson is in a position to make a single target or two count in a significant way if you’re fearing his overall volume.
I’m not sold on the Jets being a juggernaut, but I’m not benching either of their top receivers.
Tyler Conklin, TE
Tyler Conklin was inactive last week as he and his wife welcomed their first child into the world on Saturday night. There’s no health reason for him to not be with the team this week, but you can safely ignore the status of New York’s TE1.
Aaron Rodgers is looking at two players and two players only. Against the Jags, Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson caught all three of his touchdown passes while accounting for 87.9% of his passing yards. Jeremy Ruckert got the start at tight end and did his best Conklin impression by turning three targets into 12 yards.
You can disagree with my novel on Rodgers, but I’d have to be really wrong for Conklin’s role to spike to that of a usable rate.
