If you’re making Las Vegas Raiders vs. Arizona Cardinals DFS picks for Sunday in Week 2, then you’ve come to the right place.
We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Raiders vs. Cardinals DFS picks
Today we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players. The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data.
[bet-promo id=”149453″ ]Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes. Criteria such as age, durability, shifting personnel, schedule, and other factors help shape these final assessments.
Raiders DFS considerations
How many DFS competitors will place Davante Adams in their Captain or MVP slot? I’m guessing about 50%. And this is the kind of internal conversation we need to have before crafting a lineup. When does it make sense to join the crowd, and when is it better to differentiate?
Last weekend, facing a negative game script for most of the contest, Derek Carr targeted his former college teammate 17 times. For context, he targeted his other receivers (Hunter Renfrow, Darren Waller, and Mack Hollins) only 13 times combined. The strategy worked: Adams went off for 141 yards and a score. But it didn’t work because the Raiders are not the Packers. They need more than a heavy dose of Adams and a scarcely utilized backfield to win games.
I expect Vegas to make adjustments today. Against the Chargers, Waller had only one catch until the fourth quarter. Josh Jacobs ran beautifully on only 10 carries. Assuming a more balanced attack, Adams might not be worth the huge investment. Seven catches for 90 yards? Sure, very doable. But I think we’ll see more heroes today on that side of the ball.
Cardinals DFS considerations
A disastrous Week 1 loss to the Chiefs is made worse by early-season injuries (and DeAndre Hopkins’ suspension). Kyler Murray is enjoying his own reunion with a college teammate, Marquise Brown. Yet, these two didn’t enjoy nearly the same success as the Carr-Adams tandem. That should change today. Unlike with the Raiders, Arizona needs more Brown and less Greg Dortch.
That’s no knock on Dortch. But he led his team last weekend in targets, receptions, and yards. The 5’7″ 24-year-old couldn’t latch on with the Jets, Panthers, Rams, or Falcons earlier in his career. The WR-needy Cardinals are an ideal short-term match. At a basement-level price, he might make sense as a flier. But his relatively low ceiling makes him better suited for 50/50 competitions than tournaments.
As for the backfield, keep a close eye on Eno Benjamin, particularly in light of James Conner’s durability challenges over the years. Arizona might see Benjamin as a Chase Edmonds-lite contributor. The youngster handled 630 touches in his final two seasons at Arizona State. And Conner has rarely been a highly-efficient runner. Benjamin could be a sneaky DFS play if the price is right.
Recommended DFS lineup
Few DFS lineups have given more heartburn than this one. On the one hand, am I really doing this? On the other hand, of course I am. It’s the right thing to do, my wife’s indifference notwithstanding.
I see five players in this game with a higher-than-normal probability of 18+ points. There are a lot of cheaper, low-floor / solid-upside players, but I’m not keen on playing this one safe. We need to go all in on a strategy that will give us five terrific players . . . and then hope the sixth one exceeds expectations.
The first five are the aforementioned Carr ($10,000), Adams ($12,000), Renfrow ($7,000), Murray ($11,200), and Brown ($8,400). Yes, Renfrow is one of my favorite Week 2 bounce-back candidates, and I believe Arizona’s passing attack will operate more effectively after a week of retooling. These five guys easily could combine for 90+ DFS points, and there’s 120-point upside.
Who’s left? Because we still need a Captain. Ah, but we have only $1,400 remaining. Hence, my raging heartburn.
Barring late-breaking news Sunday morning that Ameer Abdullah will be active over Zamir White, I’m recommending White ($400 normally, $600 as Captain) in our Captain slot. He showed well this summer, is arguably a high-upside rookie RB (when healthy), and plays behind a running back (Josh Jacobs) whose grip on the bell cow job has weakened considerably. There is a chance — yes, a chance — that White could get 4-5 touches. Grouped with our “big five,” this unusual lineup could do some damage.
And if you want to hedge, there’s enough cap space to start Abdullah over White. Do one DFS entry for each. I believe at least one will pan out.