On Friday, the Las Vegas Raiders hired Pete Carroll as their head coach, reportedly agreeing to terms on a three-year deal with a fourth-year team option.
Tom Brady and Co. met with several coaches and ultimately chose the 73-year-old former Super Bowl champion and NCAA national champion. Let’s examine Carroll’s coaching career and whether the Raiders made the right move.
Why Pete Carroll Was the Right Hire for the Raiders
The hiring of Carroll comes with a very easy data point to reference, and it’s a convincing one: success.
During his peak time in Seattle (2012-20), the Seahawks (68.4%) trailed only the dynastic New England Patriots in win percentage, had four divisional titles, and, of course, went to the Super Bowl in consecutive years (winning it all in 2013). That’s not a bad run for a coach who took over a franchise that won a total of nine games in the two seasons prior to his hire (in his 14 seasons: 9.8 wins per season).
Even at the end of that peak, Carroll was getting a ton out of his players. Despite having a defensive background, he was able to put together an offense around a veteran QB that earned a ‘B’ in our Offense+ grading metric (for reference, that’s a higher mark than the Minnesota Vikings or Kansas City Chiefs produced this season).
Russell Wilson had a career season (68.8% complete and 40 touchdowns) and it showed that a Carroll team could succeed at a high level, even five years removed from that Legion of Boom era that dominated on that side of the ball.
Speaking of that Legion of Boom, the winning equity they brought to the table ranks up there with any defensive unit in the history of this game. During their peak (2012-15), the Seahawks coughed up just 1.33 points per possession, a rate that was 11.9% better than any other defense over that stretch and would have paced the league this season by over 18%.
The secondary generated the highlights and the sound bites, but this unit excelled at everything and the thought of rekindling that potential is enticing for any franchise. Carroll cut his teeth at the collegiate level on the defensive side of the ball and there is where he made his first impact on the NFL, so it stands to reason that a team could sell itself on his ability to build up that side of the ball.
2012-15 Seahawks, Top-3 Defensive Ranking In …
- Touchdown Rate
- Turnover Rate
- Punt Percentage
- Average Starting Field Position
- Average Drive Distance
- Red Zone Efficiency
- Goal-to-Go Efficiency
Carroll’s resume on the offensive end is highlighted by the selecting and developing of Wilson while the defensive peak is stamped by one of the most dominant runs we’ve ever seen. Also, consider this: Since the Raiders moved to Las Vegas in 2020, Carroll has won more games (37) than the Raiders (36) even though he didn’t coach the 2024 season.
Why Pete Carroll Was the Wrong Hire for the Raiders
There are no two ways about it: the production in Seattle fell off a cliff before Carroll and the organization decided, mutually, that he would no longer serve as the team’s head coach.
During his final three seasons as the man in charge of the team (2021-23), Carroll struggled to field a team that was competitive on either side of the ball. Over that stretch, his ‘Hawks were bottom-10 in punt rate (23rd, they punted on 38.9% of drives), red zone efficiency (24th) on the offensive side, along with points per drive (23rd), and turnover percentage on the defensive side (26th).
The offensive rankings can be pinned on the decline and departure of Wilson, though we’ve seen him prove capable of leading the Pittsburgh Steelers to the playoffs this year, calling into question Carroll’s ability to get the most out of his players.
The defensive rankings are even more alarming, as that is believed to be Carroll’s bread-and-butter. During the first 11 seasons of his tenure (2010-20), Seattle ranked as the third-best unit in both of those categories, highlighting just how drastic the production cliff was.
During those final three seasons, “average at best” is the best way to describe the once-feared Seahawks. According to our Offense+ and Defense+ grading metrics, Seattle earned nothing better than a ‘C’ on either side of the ball in any of those three seasons, three times earning a ‘C-.’ For reference, the Jaguars were a ‘C’ offense this season, and the Commanders were a ‘C-’ defense this season.
No coach in their 70s has ever won a Super Bowl (Bruce Arians holds the mark for the oldest operating head coach to do so at 68 years of age), and Carroll will turn 74 in September. Has the game passed him by? The Seahawks were certainly concerned about it, and given his tenure with the team, they had as good a chance as anyone at seeing any signs of aging.