The Miami Dolphins head to Buffalo to face the Bills in Wild Card Weekend, but what does that mean for the fantasy football value of Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. for the upcoming playoffs? In this article, we will examine whether fantasy managers should consider investing in either Mostert or Wilson in the various different NFL playoff fantasy formats.
Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr.’s Fantasy Value
The value for Mostert and Wilson in the NFL playoffs depends on the format you’re looking to play. In full playoff Best Ball formats, such as the one on Underdog Fantasy, they are a difficult pair to trust. As of Tuesday morning, the Dolphins are 10.5-point underdogs, suggesting they are not expected to advance beyond this week.
That makes it tricky to roster either of them as anything more than a late-round selection. FiveThirtyEight gives the Bills an 89% chance of progressing. Their metrics project this to be the most lopsided game of the entire weekend. However, that projection could change depending on the latest health update for QB Tua Tagovailoa.
An additional complicating factor is projecting the usage of the two backs from week to week. In the past two weeks, we’ve seen Wilson lead the backfield, averaging 15.5 rush attempts and 4.5 targets per game. Meanwhile, we’ve seen Mostert average 10 rushing attempts and five targets per game across the last two weeks.
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The last time it looked like Wilson was the backfield leader was when he averaged 15 rushing attempts and four targets per game in Weeks 10 and 12. However, he then had just one rushing attempt the following week. The other thing we haven’t really seen is an extended period of time with Wilson and Mostert playing together healthy.
The whole situation has become tricky to predict. Wilson appears to be leading rushing attempts on a 60-40 ratio, while the pair look to be splitting targets 50-50 of 55-45 in favor of Mostert. That usage pattern means that fantasy managers need the Dolphins to have a soft matchup for either to have a chance to return “starting-level” value on a weekly basis.
Therefore, as opposed to prioritizing Mostert and Wilson in whole playoff Best Ball formats, they’re more intriguing in one-and-done playoff formats and single-week Best Ball and DFS contests.
Fantasy Outlook for Mostert and Wilson in Wild Card Weekend
The matchup for the Dolphins’ RBs is tricky to judge in Wild Card Weekend. The Bills’ defense has been really strong against the run for the majority of the season. If we focus on the second half of the season, between Weeks 11 and 14, Buffalo allowed an average of just 78 yards per game and 3.5 rushing yards per attempt.
However, in Week 15, Miami — led by Mostert — rushed for 188 yards on 25 carries at an average of 7.5 rushing yards per attempt. The New England Patriots also had some success in Week 18, totaling 107 yards on 23 attempts at an average of 4.7 yards per attempt. In between those two games, the Bills held a run-heavy Bears offense to just 80 yards on 29 attempts at 2.8 yards per attempt.
This matchup certainly has potential for the Dolphins’ RBs. With Miami potentially set to be eliminated this week, that opens both Mostert and Wilson up to being one-and-done options this week.
When we look at their potential in DFS, Wilson is the more intriguing option in 50/50 formats at $5,400 on DraftKings. He’s been the safer option in the last three weeks, scoring between 9.4 and 11.0 fantasy points on DraftKings.
Meanwhile, in Week 17, Mostert scored 23.1 fantasy points and 19.6 fantasy points in Week 15. However, he was held to 5.9 and 8.1 fantasy points in Weeks 16 and 18, respectively. Nevertheless, the higher ceiling makes Mostert the more intriguing option in tournament play if he suits up.