One could make an argument that no player who scored 20+ touchdowns in a season has ever experienced such widespread skepticism regarding their fantasy football outlook entering the next NFL season as Raheem Mostert.
Can Mostert duplicate his excellent breakout season in this high-powered Miami Dolphins offense while competing with other dynamic playmakers on the roster in 2024?
Raheem Mostert’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Total Fantasy Points: 209.1
- Rushing Yards: 864.9
- Rushing TDs: 8.4
- Receptions: 32.7
- Receiving Yards: 220.2
- Receiving TDs: 2.9
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 15. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Mostert This Year?
Mostert’s 21 total touchdowns last season are tied for the 13th-highest mark by any running back in NFL history. His 1,012 rushing yards and 25 receptions for 175 yards in addition to his outstanding touchdown production helped him produce an RB5 overall finish in full-PPR formats at the age of 31.
MORE: Fantasy Team Names | Fantasy League Names
This career year coming at such a late age by NFL standards feels like a clear outlier in comparison to his previous eight years in the league. Before 2023, Mostert never rushed for 1,000 yards and had just one season of double-digit touchdown production back in 2019. Needless to say, Mostert drastically outperformed expectations across the board.
To give you an idea of just how much Mostert exceeded expectations last year, he ranked second at the RB position with more than 100 carries by producing 130.4% of his expected fantasy points. Oddly enough, the only back to finish ahead of him in this metric was his teammate, De’Von Achane, who posted a mark of 154.2% in his rookie year.
Speaking of efficiency, this is the real problem for fantasy managers who want to bank on an encore performance from Mostert in 2024.
Dolphins Rushing Production in 2023
- Mostert: 209 carries for 1,012 yards (4.84 YPC average) and 18 rushing TDs
- Achane: 103 carries for 800 yards (7.77 YPC average) and eight rushing TDs
By any metric, Achane was clearly the more explosive and efficient option last year. Yet, this does not mean Mostert’s explosive production should be overlooked whatsoever.
Mostert finished fourth in the league with 30 rushing plays that went for 10+ yards while posting a healthy elusiveness rating of 40.7% — which ranked fifth at the position among players who saw north of 100 carries in 2023.
One thing fantasy managers should be realizing at this point is two dynamic backs can both be reliable starting fantasy options in high-scoring offenses. The Detroit Lions have produced a pair of top 24 fantasy RBs in two consecutive seasons, with Miami accomplishing that feat as well last year.
Does the presence of a dynamic and efficient back who is likely to see an expanded role this season potentially threaten the weekly workload of an aging veteran back? Yes, absolutely. Father Time tapping Mostert on the shoulder this year is certainly within the range of outcomes.
Yet, assuming a player will completely fall off of a cliff physically when they just proved last year they can be a very effective option in a high-powered offense feels like repeating the same line of thinking that caused many to miss out on Mostert last season.
KEEP READING: Bye Week Schedule
Mostert’s ADP at No. 86 overall (going off the board in the eighth round as the RB28) certainly feels like a major bargain for a player who produced a top-five fantasy season at the position last year. Mostert is currently being drafted after Jonathon Brooks and Nick Chubb — who are both recovering from ACL injuries sustained last season.
At his price point as an RB3, Mostert is a great draft value for your fantasy team.
