As the NFL season approaches, fantasy football is upon us. We at PFN have been researching more than 350 players, trying to identify which ones are overrated, underrated, and priced right. With that in mind, here are Miami Dolphins RB Raheem Mostert’s fantasy projections for 2023, as well as insights into whether he should be drafted at or before his ADP.
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Raheem Mostert’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
Nine years ago, a running back entering his seventh NFL season finished the year as the overall RB8 on a blistering 5.4 yards per carry. His name was Justin Forsett. A former seventh-round draft pick, he toiled away in relative anonymity until breaking out in his age-29 campaign.
Forsett’s memorable season marked a statistical oddity. And when he regressed sharply in an injury-plagued campaign the following year (2015), it wasn’t that surprising. He was 30 years old, and his career was coming to an expected close.
Also in 2015, Mostert entered the league as an undrafted free agent. Like Forsett, he wasn’t highly touted out of college. He was signed by the Eagles, then the Browns, then the Dolphins, then the Ravens, and then the Jets … and that was just as a rookie. In Year 2, he joined the Bears and was picked up by the 49ers. By the end of that season, he had one NFL carry to his name.
Injuries contributed to Mostert’s misfortune. He landed on injured reserve in November 2017, ending his season. The same thing happened the following November, just as he was proving his worth in a more prominent role. He missed half of the 2020 season with more injuries. And two carries into the 2021 season, he was once again lost for the year.
It’s hard to fully understand the impact all these injuries might have had on other players. But Mostert somehow persevered, and in 2022 — his eighth NFL campaign — he racked up career-highs in rushing yards (891), receptions (31), and receiving yards (202). His sterling 4.9 yards per carry only pales in comparison to his career 5.4 ypc mark.
Most 30-year-old running backs are on steep declines or are out of football altogether. Not Mostert. He had his best season ever.
So when assessing his most realistic production in 2023, we need to throw age out the window. Yes, he’s a huge injury risk, as always. This is the rub with Mostert. His bust potential is huge as a result.
However, he’s an extraordinarily talented and versatile back in a plus offense. That matters on the field, as well as in fantasy.
The biggest wild cards are Jeff Wilson Jr. and rookie Devon Achane. The former went toe to toe with Mostert last year, forming a terrific one-two punch. Achane might pitch in on the ground, and/or he could become a useful tool in the passing game.
The point is, there’s still room for Mostert to hit 200+ touches, which means 750+ rushing yards and 200+ receiving yards are entirely doable — as long as he stays healthy.
Should You Draft Raheem Mostert This Year?
Underdog Fantasy currently lists Mostert with an ADP of RB51. Our PFN Consensus Rankings have him at RB43. It’s a fascinating spot for a guy who could finish in the top 30 and who could also battle injuries for much of the year while finishing outside the top 75.
Raheem Mostert flashing that speed ⚡️@RMos_8Ball
📱: Stream #PHIvsMIA on NFL+ https://t.co/6NpGYjnh74 pic.twitter.com/lEabkzwfTC
— NFL (@NFL) August 27, 2022
Drafting Mostert necessitates adding Wilson and/or Achane. There can’t be any hesitation here, even if it means reaching a round early for his backfield teammates. Because if — whether due to injuries or level of play — a Miami RB emerges as a weekly bell cow, then he could be a league winner by the fantasy playoffs.
It could be Mostert, or it could be Wilson, and there’s a slim chance it could be Achane. At a minimum, having two of the three shouldn’t cost much and should give managers some peace of mind entering Week 1.