The Miami Dolphins offense is very favorable for running back scoring. Sharing a backfield with De’Von Achane, can Raheem Mostert maintain a strong enough role to be an incredible value in fantasy football drafts for the second consecutive season?
Should You Draft Raheem Mostert in 2024?
Players like Mostert are always difficult to figure out. Simply put, there aren’t many.
Mostert was a UDFA way back in 2015. Given how completely irrelevant he was for the first four years of his career, it’s a miracle he even got a fifth season. Credit to him for sticking around and making his presence felt, establishing a meaningful role on the San Francisco 49ers. But it wasn’t until last year that Mostert truly broke out, in his age-31 season.
Before last year, Mostert never averaged more than 12.5 fantasy points per game. In his first year with the Dolphins, he averaged 17.9 ppg and finished as the overall RB4.
At the ripe young age of 31, he set career highs in just about everything. Despite a mere 53% opportunity share, Mostert totaled 1,187 yards and a league-leading 21 touchdowns.
The touchdowns were the bulk of Mostert’s fantasy value, but it’s unfair to characterize him as a touchdown-only player. He was legitimately a good running back.
Mostert averaged 5.1 yards per touch, 17th in the league. Of his carries, 6.7% went for 15+ yards (sixth in the NFL), and his evaded-tackles-per-touch rate was 24.8% (seventh). In Mike McDaniel’s friendly offensive scheme, he thrived.
I wonder how often a running back who finished inside the top five had an ADP outside the top 24 the following year. Outside of injury-related reasons, there’s a legitimate chance it’s never happened. Yet, that’s exactly where we are with Mostert, whose ADP sits at RB24, No. 74 overall.
Conventional wisdom suggests there’s some sort of catalyst for Mostert being drafted so far below where he finished last season…but there isn’t. His offense situation is the same. Achane now has a year of experience, but that would warrant a mild drop in ADP, not 24 spots.
Mostert is 32 years old, which is certainly a concern. He’s the oldest relevant running back in the NFL by a wide margin.
Being over 30 is not fun physically — I know from experience. But the primary issue with old running backs is the wear and tear. Mostert may be old, but he only has 766 career touches. By way of comparison, Najee Harris entered the league six years after Mostert but has 212 more career touches.
The more I think about it, the more it feels like Mostert’s ADP is assuming some sort of massive role change for him, and I’m not so sure this backfield is going to look much different. Sure, Achane is undoubtedly going to see more work than he did last season, but Mostert doesn’t need to be the RB4 again.
The Dolphins are going to have an explosive offense. They will score a ton of points. At the goal line, why wouldn’t it be Mostert again? He won’t score 21 times. But can he score 10? I don’t see why not.
An 11-touchdown reduction seems significant, and it is. But if Mostert can otherwise do what he did last year, but lose 11 touchdowns, that would still put him at 13.5 points per game. Every fantasy manager in existence would sign up for 13+ ppg from any running back going outside the top 24.
Ironically, I have Mostert ranked quite low. The unfortunate fact is that there are many running backs who look good and have similar values. Even so, I can see myself drafting him as he continues to fall in fantasy drafts. Do not dismiss the Dolphins’ dynamo just because of his age.