Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB Rachaad White was one of the best values of the 2023 season, but volume played a big role. Will the Bucs bring in competition for White? How should fantasy football managers handle the talented receiving back in Best Ball drafts?
Rachaad White’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
Easily one of my biggest misses of 2023 was White. Sometimes, misses are random and unpredictable in a manner that shouldn’t lead to a change in process. That’s not the case here.
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The reason I shouldn’t have been as out on White was because his cost was not at all prohibitive. As you might imagine, deciding whether you should select him in 2024 Best Ball drafts will come down to where he goes.
White has been one of the least efficient runners in the league since entering the NFL in 2022. He had a great year last season and was one of the best values of drafts… but it had nothing to do with his rushing ability.
White averaged 15.8 fantasy points per game, finishing as the overall RB10. Yet, he averaged a paltry 3.6 yards per carry and had just six carries all season that went for 15+ yards — a 2.2% rate, 47th in the league.
Where White excelled was in the passing game. He saw a 12.7% target share (13th in the NFL) but caught an impressive 91.4% of his targets.
White is also the rare RB who was his team’s primary pass-catching back and goal-line back. So, he added nine touchdowns while also seeing massive volume overall. White’s 75.3% opportunity share was seventh in the league at the position.
Last year, I failed to properly account for three things. First, the Bucs truly did not have anyone … at all. The running backs behind White were unable to showcase anything to indicate that they were deserving of more opportunity, and White was never losing that job.
Second, White is an elite receiver. Since a target is worth at least 2.5 times more than a carry for fantasy football, it didn’t matter how ineffective White was on the ground. He was second amongst running backs in routes run and third in the percentage of pass plays in which he ran a route.
Third, as I previously alluded to, there was cost. My fade of White began before ADPs were fully set. I assumed he would go in the fourth round. When I saw he was going in the sixth, the fade should’ve been called off.
White is not a bad football player. He’s just not your traditional running back. Fantasy managers don’t want him getting unnecessary carries between the tackles. He’s not going to do anything with them. Get White the ball out in space and watch him work.
Somehow, White led the NFL in carries against a light box, yet managed to average 3.6 yards per carry on the season. This guy who can’t even break off big runs against five-man boxes was able to average 7.8 yards per target.
Should You Draft White in 2024 Best Ball Leagues?
White saw a 77.4% snap share last season, and Tampa Bay’s offense was more prolific with QB Baker Mayfield than it was with Tom Brady.
It would be a surprise if White wasn’t the lead back once again this season. With that said, the Buccaneers are likely going to sign or draft another running back.
Those looking to draft White shouldn’t be upset when they do. The only concern for his fantasy value is if the new RB takes goal-line carries. If he takes even as many as 50 carries away from White on the season, it probably doesn’t matter. At most, that would cost White maybe a fantasy point per game.
KEEP READING: Best Ball Stacking Strategy
The state of the RB position in fantasy football is as bad as it’s been in a long time, possibly ever. A guy like White is going to be a no-doubt top-12 pick by ADP. He doesn’t have game-breaking upside, but White is very infrequently going to wash out.
From Week 7 through the end of the season, White scored at least 13 fantasy points in all but one game. If you start your draft WR-heavy, White is the perfect running back to grab in the late third or early fourth round.
