Writing off any player after a disappointing rookie season is silly, but Quentin Johnston’s dynasty fantasy football value certainly took a hit with what he put on film in 2023. Naturally, this has created a buying window in the trade market.
Should you roll the dice?
Quentin Johnston’s Dynasty Outlook
The Los Angeles Chargers selected Johnston with the 21st overall pick of the 2023 NFL Draft after he averaged 19.0 yards per catch and scored once every 8.2 catches during his three years as a TCU Horned Frog.
Their goal was to have him develop with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams on the roster, understanding that those two may not be on the roster for the long term, and have him ready to be Justin Herbert’s WR1 in reasonably short order.
#Chargers WR Quentin Johnston just had the easiest 1st #NFL TD you’ll ever see.#BoltUp
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) November 12, 2023
To say that optimism hit a speed bump would be a gross understatement. During his rookie season, Johnston failed to make consistent contributions to the Chargers, let alone fantasy football managers, totaling just 38 catches for 431 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
The play that jumps to mind when discussing his first year was a dropped pass with the game on the line — not ideal.
Johnston ran 25+ routes on 11 occasions, but he managed to earn more than five targets just four times and cleared 52 receiving yards only once. He saw just six more passes thrown his way than third-year man Joshua Palmer despite running 149 more routes (Palmer missed seven games).
On the bright side, Johnston did lead the team in average depth of target (aDOT) at 12.9 yards, a role that you would expect a 6’4” athlete to fill and eventually thrive in. He caused six defensive pass interference penalties, tied for the second most in the league (Calvin Ridley had seven).
That at least gives us a glimmer of hope that those splash plays could be coming. With an overhaul of the coaching staff and personal changes very possible heading into 2024, Johnston may be a buy-low option after just one NFL season.
Johnston’s Dynasty Ranking
Where does Johnston land in the dynasty WR landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Soppe’s latest rankings, featuring where Johnston lands in comparison to other top names at the position.
1) Ja’Marr Chase | CIN
2) Justin Jefferson | MIN
3) Tyreek Hill | MIA
4) CeeDee Lamb | DAL
5) Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET
6) A.J. Brown | PHI
7) Garrett Wilson | NYJ
8) Jaylen Waddle | MIA
9) Chris Olave | NO
10) Tee Higgins | CIN
11) Brandon Aiyuk | SF
12) Puka Nacua | LAR
13) DJ Moore | CHI
14) Nico Collins | HOU
15) Rashee Rice | KC
16) Michael Pittman Jr. | IND
17) Amari Cooper | CLE
18) Cooper Kupp | LAR
19) DeVonta Smith | PHI
20) DK Metcalf | SEA
21) Zay Flowers | BAL
22) Drake London | ATL
23) Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA
24) Davante Adams | LV
25) Mike Evans | TB
26) Tank Dell | HOU
27) Jayden Reed | GB
28) Deebo Samuel | SF
29) Calvin Ridley | JAX
30) Stefon Diggs | BUF
31) Jordan Addison | MIN
32) Keenan Allen | LAC
33) Terry McLaurin | WAS
34) George Pickens | PIT
35) Chris Godwin | TB
36) Josh Downs | IND
37) Gabe Davis | BUF
38) Michael Wilson | ARI
39) Jameson Williams | DET
40) Elijah Moore | CLE
41) Romeo Doubs | GB
42) Jerry Jeudy | DEN
43) Christian Kirk | JAX
44) Diontae Johnson | PIT
45) DeAndre Hopkins | TEN
46) Khalil Shakir | BUF
47) Joshua Palmer | LAC
48) Jahan Dotson | WAS
49) Courtland Sutton | DEN
50) Jakobi Meyers | LV
51) Treylon Burks | TEN
52) Christian Watson | GB
53) Marquise Brown | ARI
54) Mike Williams | LAC
55) Tyler Lockett | SEA
56) Zay Jones | JAX
57) Jonathan Mingo | CAR
58) Quentin Johnston | LAC
59) Jalin Hyatt | NYG
60) Noah Brown | HOU
61) Tutu Atwell | LAR
62) Michael Thomas | NO
63) Marvin Mims Jr. | DEN
64) Kendrick Bourne | NE
65) Adam Thielen | CAR
66) Cedric Tillman | CLE
67) Rashid Shaheed | NO
68) Brandin Cooks | DAL
69) Trey Palmer | TB
70) Darius Slayton | NYG
71) Wan’Dale Robinson | NYG
72) Darnell Mooney | CHI
73) Kadarius Toney | KC
74) Rashod Bateman | BAL
75) John Metchie III | HOU
76) Rondale Moore | ARI
77) Skyy Moore | KC
78) Donovan Peoples-Jones | DET
79) Alec Pierce | IND
80) Mecole Hardman Jr. | KC
81) Allen Lazard | NYJ
82) Tyler Boyd | CIN
83) DJ Chark | CAR
84) Josh Reynolds | DET
85) Odell Beckham Jr. | BAL
86) Michael Gallup | DAL
87) Tyquan Thornton | NE
88) Curtis Samuel | WAS
89) Isaiah Hodgins | NYG
90) Robert Woods | HOU
Should You Trade Johnston in Dynasty?
Are you considering trading Johnston? Our free PFN Trade Analyzer allows you to find the best trade offer to make in seconds!
I’m an optimistic person by nature and, in large, willing to give people a second chance. That carries over to fantasy sports as well, but I’ll admit that I’m worried.
“You know it when you see it.”
Over the past decade, there have been 15 receivers drafted in Round 1 that stood at least 6’1” and saw 50 targets as a rookie — a list that includes Johnston. As a collective, that group of receivers averaged just under 1.7 yards per target, a respectable rate.
Of that group, there were three players who performed at least half of the standard deviation above expectation and four who were at least that much below the mean.
Above
- Justin Jefferson: 2.66 yards per route
- Drake London: 2.07 yards per route
- Mike Evans: 2.06 yards per route
Below
- Rashod Bateman: 1.26 yards per route
- Will Fuller: 1.23 yards per route
- Corey Davis: 1.14 yards per route
- Quentin Johnston: 0.89 yards per route
That doesn’t exactly paint a pretty picture (unless you roster London, then you love this list!).
It’s a small sample size, but the alpha receivers were able to be efficient from the get-go while those destined to disappoint (Fuller didn’t have a single 55-catch season and only reached 700 yards once — and he’s the best case of that tier) have struggled out of the gates.
MORE: Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Value Chart
There is probably someone in your league willing to speculate on Johnston given the pedigree and the moving pieces in Los Angeles. I’d be listening to any offer that can help me win in 2024 if the roster is in a position to do so.
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