It’s Week 18, and for fantasy football leagues that are still playing, it means you’re playing for the championship title. You either win, or you don’t — it’s as simple as that.
There are always plenty of questions about who to start and who to sit in your lineups. Below, we’ve provided analysis for every fantasy-relevant quarterback in every game this weekend.
If you’re looking for all positions, head to our Week 18 Fantasy Football Start-Sit Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Aaron Rodgers, QB | NYJ (vs. MIA)
Aaron Rodgers has had more downs than ups this season, but he has completed 17 of 21 play-action passes over the past two weeks (81%), and with the Dolphins giving up more yards per carry after contact than any other defense, it’s easy to envision a scenario where the play fake is weaponized this weekend.
Rodgers looked good in the first game against the ‘Fins (Week 14: 339 passing yards and a touchdown), and all signs seem to point to him finishing the season. This is a weird ranking week for the QB position, as I’ve prioritized Russell Wilson (vs. CIN) and Michael Penix Jr. while weighing team motivation in a significant way toward the bottom of my QB1 rankings.
That drops Rodgers outside of my top 12, even in a reasonable spot. The Jets looked like a mess last week, and there is no overlooking that potential for this week. The future Hall of Famer has just two finishes better than QB10 this season, and while it’s possible that he adds to that total if he continues to weigh down Davante Adams with targets, I’m not ranking it that way, opting for better matchups in big team spots.
Aidan O’Connell, QB | LV (vs. LAC)
Aidan O’Connell turned 12 third-down pass attempts into 131 yards and his first third-down score of the season on Sunday. We’ve seen him weasel his way into the top 15 fantasy performers at the position twice this season, but I still think we are looking at a player that is a ways from mattering for fantasy managers consistently.
Over his last 14 appearances (12 starts), O’Connell has completed 69.4% of his non-pressured passes with nine touchdowns and two interceptions. I think he’s proven himself to be the best option in Vegas — that might be damning with faint praise. But if they can stabilize the run game and/or add another pass catcher, there’s a world in which O’Connell is a matchup-based streamer in very specific windows next season as he navigates a last-place schedule.
Anthony Richardson, QB | IND (vs. JAX)
Updated at 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, January 5
Richardson is inactive for today's game.
Anthony Richardson (back/foot) did not practice at all last week and ultimately sat out against the Giants. It’s since been reported that he is dealing with “very serious” back spasms, and that all but ensures that his second season is over.
Just as concerning as the 50.6% career completion percentage and sub-1.0 TD/INT rates is his inability to stay on the field (16 games played across two seasons, and that includes a few early exits).
Richardson’s profile is fantasy-friendly, and I think he has enough in terms of team support to make this an above-average offense, but without growth as a passer, the expectation that he’ll be a consistent option in our game is unrealistic.
That said, the second that switch flips, we are talking about a top-five option that could prove to be a league winner the way Jayden Daniels has been this season. It’ll be a price-sensitive decision come drafts this summer, but I can see myself going back to this well, understanding that there is still plenty of depth at the position to insulate this risky investment.
Baker Mayfield, QB | TB (vs. NO)
I encourage you to run through the ranking process this week and tell me on Twitter how many QBs you slot in ahead of Baker Mayfield.
Spoiler alert, it’s a short list.
It’s so short that I’m not even sure it’s technically a “list.” Mayfield has 12 top-10s this season, and half of those finishes have been top-fives. He threw for 325 yards and four scores along with three interceptions in a Week 6 trip to New Orleans.
Chris Godwin was heavily featured in that contest while Mike Evans was held in check, something that obviously can’t happen this week, but with Jalen McMillan emerging (one target in that first game, six Buccaneers were more involved) and Marshon Lattimore now a Commander, I can’t think of any reason to bench Mayfield.
That’s a lie. The two reasons are Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels as they are the only two QBs I have ranked ahead of him this weekend.
Bo Nix, QB | DEN (vs. KC)
Bo Nix held his own in a Week 10 showdown with these Chiefs; now, the script flips. Instead of being a road underdog against a defense as talented as any, he’s a home favorite against a unit that will likely manage the reps of its starters.
Bo Nix has been clutch when it matters most. He's 15-of-19 this season in the final two minutes of fourth quarters this season (78.9%, best in the league). 🎯 pic.twitter.com/IC2fW64KSV
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) December 29, 2024
The skill set is fun and the upside is obvious, but how about the usage?
- Cam Newton (2011)
That is your full list of rookie QBs since 2000 with more games than Nix with at least 20 rushing yards and 30 passing attempts. Nix has done it in each of his past three games and has clearly earned Sean Payton’s trust when it comes to this team’s fate.
The rookie has been producing all season long, and we could see him post a big fantasy number with Denver’s season on the line.
Brock Purdy, QB | SF (at ARI)
Updated at 2:55 ET on Sunday, January 5
Purdy is inactive for today's game.
In Weeks 1-16, we didn’t have a single game where a QB threw for 350 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for a score — Joe Burrow and Purdy both did it in Week 17.
Last week was fun — until it wasn’t. A late elbow injury resulted in Purdy missing sometime late in the loss to the Lions, and he will not play in Week 18. Instead, Joshua Dobbs will get the start under center.
This year, Purdy did just fine for himself, given the circumstances. With his top skill-position teammates falling like flies, he posted nine top-12 finishes.
I like his combination of athleticism and YAC teammates, which could land him on many of my wait-on-a-quarterback rosters next season.
Bryce Young, QB | CAR (at ATL)
Bryce Young has multiple touchdown passes without an interception in consecutive games – he had one such game previously on his NFL résumé. There is enough to like in Young’s profile for the Panthers to move forward with him labeled as ”the guy” for this rebuild, and I continue to like the upside of the pieces he has at his disposal.
… for next season.
… or maybe 2026.
Not Week 18. The Falcons are playing for a playoff berth, and their pass defense has looked better lately (even in a loss last week, they held Jayden Daniels to 6.3 yards per attempt).
Andy Dalton threw for 221 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions for Carolina against Atlanta in Week 6, a stat line that I think is on the high end of optimistic for Young this weekend. That’s not going to be enough to pay off starting him in most single-QB formats.
Caleb Williams, QB | CHI (at GB)
Maybe we set the bar a bit high for Caleb Williams. We saw the pedigree and the situation and assumed that there would be an instant translation to fantasy relevance, something that pretty clearly hasn’t happened, especially when you juxtapose it to other members of this rookie class.
We’ve seen some flashes from Williams this season, despite the disappointing overall production, and that includes moments against these Packers. In Week 11, he funneled 64.5% of his targets to his trio of receivers on his way to completing 23 of 31 passes for 231 yards. He also added 70 yards on the ground, giving us a glimpse of what the future may hold. I’m not betting on him doing similar things in January at Lambeau, but I’m certainly not throwing in the towel on him as a prospect as we begin to turn our attention toward next season.
Video game numbers are great, but when I’m evaluating a rookie QB, I want to see poise. These high-end prospects usually end up in rebuilding situations, and if they can show composure early on, it paves the way for future growth. Williams isn’t there yet, but I’d very much caution against overreacting to his profile.
Rookie season, under pressure:
- Williams: 44.1% complete, 5.5 yards per attempt, and 5.1% TD rate
- Joe Burrow: 37.3% complete, 4.2 yards per attempt, and 2.9% TD rate
Rookie season, when blitzed:
- Williams: 57.6% complete, 6.7 yards per attempt, and 3.5 TD/INT
- Burrow: 61.0% complete, 6.6 yards per attempt, and 1.3 TD/INT
I’m not suggesting that Williams is Windy City Burrow, but Cincinnati saw their top overall pick make a massive jump in Year 2 (getting Ja’Marr Chase certainly helped, but I’d argue that the Bears spent this season getting Williams acclimated with his weapons). But I’m not ruling that out in a division that is going to require scoring points in bunches for years to come.
Year 2 Burrow:
- Pressured: 60.9% complete, 8.6 yards per attempt, and 6.8% TD rate
- Blitzed: 68.8% complete, 10.3 yards per attempt, and 2.5 TD/INT
Carson Wentz, QB | KC (at DEN)
Wentz will start Sunday’s regular-season finale against the Broncos. With the Chiefs having clinched the AFC’s No. 1 playoff seed, head coach Andy Reid noted Wednesday that “it wasn’t a hard decision” to rest starting QB Patrick Mahomes in Week 18.
“I’ve been through it before,” Reid added. “I’m not too worried. It gives the other guys an opportunity to grow.”
In this case, Wentz will get the starting nod, with Chris Oladokun presumably in line to be elevated from the practice squad to serve as Kansas City’s No. 2 QB versus Denver.
Wentz — who has played nine total snaps all season –is headed for his first extended action since Week 18 of 2023, when his former Rams squad faced a similar scenario heading into the regular-season finale and opted to rest normal starter Matthew Stafford.
With the Chiefs holding out and/or restricting the workloads of other top playmakers and linemen, it will limit Wentz’s fantasy appeal for Week 18. To make things more unpredictable, NFL Network’s Peter Schrager suggested that Kansas City may even turn to Oladokun to relieve Wentz at some point in the contest.
C.J. Stroud, QB | HOU (at TEN)
The Texans don’t have any upward mobility this weekend. They are locked into the No. 4 seed, and that means that, if chalk holds, they will draw the Chiefs in the second round. They are going to have a battle on their hands just to get to that point, and they really haven’t looked like a legitimate threat for a while (5-1 start to the season, 4-6 since).
C.J. Stroud was just ordinary in the Week 12 loss to these Titans (he threw for 247 yards with a pair of touchdowns and a pair of interceptions), but it’s difficult to see him playing a full 60 minutes this weekend with the understanding that Houston will be hosting a Wild Card game next week.
When looking forward, be it for DFS purposes this postseason or early 2025 rankings, Stroud’s regression as a field stretcher has to be considered. We’ve seen the Bengals adapt their offense and draw back Ja’Marr Chase’s aDOT in the process — do the Texans try something similar in short order to make their second-year QB more efficient?
Stroud threw 116 deep passes (15+ air yards) as a rookie, averaging 14.5 yards per attempt with nine touchdowns and zero interceptions in the process. This season, on 122 such passes, Stroud is averaging 11.0 yards per pass with five touchdowns and seven interceptions.
Cooper Rush, QB | DAL (vs. WAS)
With CeeDee Lamb sidelined the Cowboys decided to … ramp up the aggression?
Cooper Rush’s aDOT entering Week 17 was 6.7 yards. On Sunday, his rate spiked to 9.4. That’s only a single data point, but it’s an interesting one heading into a matchup against the third-worst deep-ball defense in the league in terms of touchdown rate.
Rush threw for 247 yards and a pair of scores in the first meeting with the Commanders. While that sounds tempting to chase, 41.7% of his completions that afternoon went to Lamb. I thought Washington’s defense was fine for the majority of Week 17 outside of the final drive in regulation. With their seeding on the line, I’m expecting a similar performance this week.
He may have his moments on Sunday, but I’d be surprised if Rush returned top-15 value this week.
Derek Carr, QB | NO (at TB)
Updated at 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, January 5
Carr is inactive for today's game.
Derek Carr had the potential to return this week for the Saints for reasons unknown, but his status shouldn’t be of concern in fantasy circles, given the carnage around him at the skill positions.
Even with talent coming in and out, Carr has failed to throw multiple touchdown passes in the majority of his games this season. That is going to render any pocket-locked signal-caller as close to useless.
I give him credit for trying to return to action and finish the season, but my fantasy bills aren’t paid on credit.
Drake Maye, QB | NE (vs. BUF)
Updated at 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, January 5
Maye is active for today's game.
With 124 passing yards on Sunday, Drake Maye will become the seventh QB in NFL history with 2,400 passing yards and 420 rushing yards in his first season, joining Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams as members of the 2024 class to appear on that list.
Consistency has been an issue, but that’s common as college kids adjust to the pro game. The fact of the matter is that we’ve seen enough to be optimistic long-term.
Maye jumps up the Week 18 rankings because New England is only worried about developing him, and thus he’s a good bet to play 60 minutes. He looked just fine two weeks ago in this matchup (261 passing yards, two passing scores, and three rushing yards), and that exact line projects as more valuable now than in Week 16.
Maye is a low-end QB1 for me this week in what could be a glimpse into the future. The can’t-teach tools are there — once this roster catches up, a fantasy explosion feels more inevitable than it does wish casting.
Drew Lock, QB | NYG (at PHI)
Andrew Luck … Drew Luck … Drew Lock.
A few minor spelling changes and we’d have a QB with elite pedigree and high expectations. Instead, we have none of those things, so when Lock posts the best Giants QB+ in our database and a top-five overall grade of the season, we take notice in a big way.
The list of players since 2020 with a 300-yard, four-TD, one-rushing-TD game is a short and impressive one:
- Josh Allen (3x)
- Patrick Mahomes (1)
- Tom Brady (1)
- Justin Herbert (1)
- Dak Prescott (1)
- Drew Lock (1)
Last week was a lot of fun, and with a concentrated target tree, maybe I’m underselling his chances to expose what figures to be a backup-laden Eagles secondary, but I’m not at all interested in chasing the points I missed out on last week.
For his career, Lock is a sub-60% passer with nearly as many interceptions (nine) as touchdown passes (10) since 2021. I’ll trust the overall profile instead of an exciting 60 minutes.
Geno Smith, QB | SEA (at LAR)
Updated at 2:55 ET on Sunday, January 5
Smith is active for today's game.
Geno Smith’s average depth of throw on Thursday night was 3.2 yards, the second shortest in a winning effort of his career (minimum 20 attempts). I think that might turn into more the norm with Jaxon Smith-Njigba transitioning to the lead man in Seattle’s receiving game; while there will be poor matchups for a skill set like that, facing a Rams defense that ranks 26th in preventing YAC isn’t a bad spot.
We saw Smith exploit this weakness in the Week 9 meeting, as he averaged 10.4 yards per short completion, his highest mark of the season. Even more promising is the fact that this move to a low-risk offense has required very little in the way of a learning curve – Smith has completed 67 of 81 shot passes (82.7%) over his past four games.
Generally speaking, I’m not sold on Smith as a stable asset week over week, but in this specific spot with so many of the big names at risk of seeing limited work, I think he’s a viable option in most formats.
Jalen Hurts, QB | PHI (vs. NYG)
Last Updated Sunday at 11:30 AM
Hurts is inactive for today's game as the Eagles are resting starters.
Jalen Hurts completed one of his four passes for 11 yards in Week 16 before entering concussion protocol and being ruled out for the remainder of the game. This was obviously a brutal break for fantasy managers, as there was no reason to not play him with the utmost confidence (2023 was his first season without a DNP).
Philadelphia sat him out last week against the Cowboys and is now locked in the two-seed. With Hurts still in protocol, there is no reason to rush him back.
Kenny Pickett will likely draw a second straight start. He looked fine last week against an overmatched Cowboys team (10-of-15 for 143 yards and a touchdown), but that was with DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown dominating down the field.
It would stand to reason that all valuable Philadelphia pieces are players you want to avoid, and that would wipe Pickett off of my DFS player pool, even with a cheap price tag.
Jared Goff, QB | DET (vs. MIN)
Jared Goff stands alone at the top of the NFL in terms of games with at least three touchdown passes and zero interceptions (six; Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow are the only others with more than three). He’d be sitting as the MVP favorite in many seasons, and while he isn’t this year due to Jackson and Josh Allen’s excellence, he is having that sort of elite season.
Goff was phenomenal in the Week 7 game in Minnesota, completing 22 of 25 passes for 280 yards and two scores, numbers that should be surprising given that he ranks inside the top five in both passer rating and yards per attempt against the blitz this season.
Given this offense’s efficiency and the increased reliance on Goff to make plays sans David Montgomery, Detroit’s QB1 is a pretty good bet most weeks, and I especially like him in this specific matchup against an aggressive defense that can be beaten with quick decisions.
Jayden Daniels, QB | WAS (at DAL)
Jayden Daniels posted the fourth regular season game all-time with at least 225 passing and 125 rushing yards, joining …
- 2019 Lamar Jackson
- 2018 Josh Allen
- 2010 Michael Vick
His ability to adjust to the speed of the NFL game on the fly has been remarkable – he’s essentially been unstoppable when at full health. He was intercepted twice against the Cowboys in Week 12, but he threw for 275 yards and two scores while adding 13.4 fantasy points with his legs.
We’ve seen Daniels grow from a signal caller who wanted to rely on his legs to one who was comfortable with a single receiver to a well-rounded asset that no team wants to see in the postseason.
I have him ranked as my QB2 this week, and I worry I might be too low.
Jimmy Garoppolo, QB | LAR (vs. SEA)
We haven’t seen much of Jimmy Garoppolo since his time with the 49ers, but the snapshot that we got last year with the Raiders wasn’t exactly encouraging if you’re hoping to mine value in a spot start.
Through 17 weeks, the Seahawks ranked fourth in pressure rate and 20th in blitz rate. They excel at speeding up opponents without having to allocate additional resources, and that’s enough to have me looking just about anywhere else.
Garoppolo was a mess when feeling the heat in 2023. The NFL average is a 48.8% completion percentage and a 1.5 TD/INT rate when pressured. Last season, Garoppolo was 16-of-41 (39%) with zero touchdowns and five interceptions.
Add in the fact that he’ll be supported by a skeleton crew, and there’s no reason to go this direction with any level of optimism.
Joshua Dobbs QB | SF (at ARI)
Joshua Dobbs will get the spot start, with Brock Purdy dealing with an elbow injury suffered late in Week 17’s loss to the Lions. He completed three of his four passes for 34 yards and added a seven-yard rushing score late against the Lions on Monday night, showcasing the versatility that we’ve had an interest in when he has been pressed into duty in the past.
Personally, I’m in no hurry to start him in a meaningless game, but if you’re going to stream the position, he’s as viable as any, provided that the 49ers elect to play their regulars.
Dobbs averages 5.8 yards per pass for his career and had as many touchdown passes as interceptions with the Vikings last season. There is some rushing upside in his profile, but not so much that you need to move heaven and earth to get access to it.
Joe Flacco, QB | IND (vs. JAX)
Joe Flacco has 56 fewer pass attempts than Anthony Richardson this season – he has three more touchdown tosses and 13 more completions. The future of this franchise is obviously in Richardson’s hands more than Flacco’s, but the present is the veteran’s, and there is fantasy upside to chase given that he has thrown for 3,420 yards over his last 12 games.
There’s no motivation either way in this game, so there is the potential for key members to sit, but at the moment, I have him ranked in the same tier as fellow graybeards Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford, right on the fringe of QB15 status.
Jordan Love, QB | GB (vs. CHI)
Over his past six games, Jordan Love has had five touchdown passes and zero interceptions against the blitz (previously this season: five touchdowns against five interceptions). What we might be seeing is the maturation of a young quarterback, and Packers backers should be thrilled by this development when it comes to their team’s long-term trajectory.
In the short term, this maturity could raise Love’s floor while potentially lowering his ceiling a touch if he proves hesitant to cut loose the risk/reward passes. Green Bay didn’t need much from him in the Week 11 win over Chicago (17 pass attempts), and that’s the only reason to proceed with caution this weekend.
I fully expect the Packers to come out and try to earn the NFC’s sixth seed in this spot (they need a win and a Commanders loss); while I don’t think they ultimately get there, that level of motivation gives me the green light to rank Love as a lineup lock in all formats.
Josh Allen, QB | BUF (at NE)
Last Updated Sunday at 11:30 AM
Allen is active for today's game, but only for the purposes of taking the first snap to keep his consecutive starts streak alive. Mitch Trubisky will be the QB1 today.
All reports out of Buffalo are that Josh Allen will start, but every report trails off after that. He’s going to play, and maybe that’s enough given how quickly he puts fantasy points on the board, but consider me skeptical that he plays in the second half.
Heck, I’m not sure the second quarter is a safe bet.
Allen struggled against the Patriots two weeks ago (154 passing yards with a touchdown and an interception), but this isn’t a matchup that scares me in the least. My low ranking of him is simply a bet on a lack of opportunity. Their insistence to play him also rules out getting meaningful production from Mitch Trubisky and makes projecting these pass catchers closer to calculus than arithmetic.
Justin Herbert, QB | LAC (at LV)
On Saturday, Justin Herbert officially became the NFL’s top passer through the first five seasons of a career (he opened the win over the Patriots by completing 17 of his first 21 passes for 162 yards and a pair of scores and a pair of teammate drops).
He also missed Ladd McConkey on what could (should) have been a 23-yard touchdown. Since Week 8, even in a system that can be restrictive at times, Herbert has seven top-12 finishes. I think you can go ahead and adjust that number to eight with the 10th-worst passing defense when it comes to opponent touchdown rate.
I’d love to see the rushing numbers bump up a bit (he cleared 12 yards on the ground just once in December), but with Jim Harbaugh trusting him with more weekly and a career-best yards-per-pass pace, you’re playing Herbert with confidence this week.
Kenny Pickett, QB | PHI (vs. NYG)
Last Updated Sunday at 11:30 AM
Pickett is active for today's game, but Tanner McKee will start.
Kenny Pickett will likely draw a second straight start with Hurts set to sit out Week 18 due to a combination of him being in concussion protocol and the Eagles having the second seed locked up.
Pickett looked fine last week against an overmatched Cowboys team (10-of-15 for 143 yards and a touchdown), but that was with DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown dominating down the field.
It would stand to reason that all valuable Philadelphia pieces are players you want to avoid, and that would wipe Pickett off of my DFS player pool, even with a cheap price tag.
Kyler Murray, QB | ARI (vs. SF)
This season hasn’t gone nearly the way fantasy managers had hoped for Kyler Murray, and Saturday was a pretty good reflection of that.
Despite 52 opportunities (pass + rush attempts) against a reasonably vulnerable Rams defense, Murray managed just 16 fantasy points. For the season as a whole, he has more sub-12-point games (five) than games with 21+ (four), something that I would have told you was close to impossible if you gave me the facts of him completing 68.6% of his passes while averaging a career-high 7.3 yards per carry.
Despite those rate stats, it’s been the “hows” of him getting those numbers that have been the problem, and that is what scares me for 2025. His aDOT this season is a career-low 6.9 yards and, more impactful for our purposes, the rushing volume is in steady decline.
Kyler Murray, completions per rush attempt by season:
- 2020: 2.82
- 2021: 3.77
- 2022: 3.87
- 2023: 4.00
- 2024: 4.63
Murray has at least three more years on his contract, and this is the sort of usage that doesn’t reverse with age. The Marvin Harrison Jr. connection should develop with time, and Trey McBride is a special playmaker, but if we are trending four-ish carries per game as opposed to the 6.7 he averaged through his first season, we need to rethink the upside case significantly.
As for Week 18, Murray relied on his legs to produce in the Week 5 meeting with the 49ers (83 rush yards and a touchdown), something that I’m not sure sticks. The Cardinals have no motivation this week, but without a developmental QB to give snaps to on the roster, I’m projecting a full game from Murray; that’s enough to land him inside my top 10, a ranking I’m not positive he enters next season with.
Mac Jones, QB | JAX (at IND)
If this was a fully functional Jaguars offense that Mac Jones had access to (Christian Kirk and Evan Engram), we’d have to have a serious conversation about his potential to project as a top-12 option this week.
That’s obviously not the case, however, and that is why I can get there with him, even in a matchup against a defense that defends the run better than the pass.
Jones hasn’t thrown an interception in consecutive starts and has multiple TD passes in three of his past five. I’m not painting this guy as an ace QB or anything as much as I’m laying the foundation to once again be high on this offensive group for 2025. Despite very, very ordinary metrics across the board, Jones has shown some fantasy promise.
If you’re investing in this offense in DFS this weekend, it’s likely on Brian Thomas Jr. as a stand-alone piece, and I think that’s fine. There’s no reason to take on the risk that comes with Jones for an upside case that isn’t overly enticing.
Mason Rudolph, QB | TEN (vs. HOU)
The on-field target share distribution with Mason Rudolph under center is about as split as it can be, and that’s a pain for fantasy managers:
- Calvin Ridley: 23.6%
- Josh Whyle: 25%
- Chig Okonkwo: 23.4%
- Tyjae Spears: 23.4%
It’s encouraging for Rudolph’s future in the NFL, as a backup signal caller who can spread the ball around and execute a plan is exciting to most franchises, but in terms of holding any meaningful value in our game, this profile is not that.
Matthew Stafford, QB | LAR (vs. SEA)
Updated at 2:55 ET on Sunday, January 5
Stafford is inactive for today's game.
Stafford won’t play as HC Sean McVay is giving him rest (Jimmy Garoppolo is starting in his place), but let’s look at this game as if he were playing.
The Rams hung 44 points on the Bills in a Week 14 upset victory and looked unstoppable in the process. Matthew Stafford averaged 10.7 yards per pass, Kyren Williams scored twice, and the healthy Rams were a force to be reckoned with.
The latter might still be true, but the fantasy numbers wouldn’t reflect it — this offense has scored just 44 points total in the three weeks since that masterpiece. Over that run, just one of Stafford’s 78 passes have resulted in a touchdown, a brutal stretch at the worst possible time for fantasy managers.
Would it have rebounded this week?
Stafford carved up the Patriots in New England in Week 11, but outside of that, his top four games have either come at home or against these Seahawks (Week 9: 298 passing yards with two scores). That performance against Seattle was even more impressive when you recall that he lost Puka Nacua to an early ejection, forcing him into distributing one-third of his targets to either Demarcus Robinson or Tyler Johnson that afternoon.
In theory, all of that sounds good, but I would have worried about this spot. Yes, he overcame this matchup two months ago, though that would have been just a snapshot as to what is most likely to happen. Throughout the 16-game sample of 2024, Stafford has told us that he doesn’t like pressure.
Whether it is that he’s been a tick slow on the fast read, he’s aborting plays a little early — whatever factor you want to blame it on, his rates when feeling the heat are a major concern against a top-five pressure unit in the league.
Matthew Stafford, pressure stats with Rams by season:
- 2021: 75.0 passer rating, 8.0 yards/attempt, and 5.8% TD rate
- 2022: 69.6 passer rating, 5.8 yards/attempt, and 2.7% TD rate
- 2023: 75.7 passer rating, 6.2 yards/attempt, and 5.8% TD rate
- 2024: 51.6 passer rating, 5.6 yards/attempt, and 1.4% TD rate
Stafford would have qualified as a viable play this weekend, but I would have been careful about blindly copy-pasting in his Week 9 numbers. This is a below-average team in pass rate over expectation and might be happy to play in the mud this weekend — it might work for them (I’ll be picking the Rams to win), but the risk would have been significant for those banking on Stafford.
Michael Penix Jr., QB | ATL (vs. CAR)
Michael Penix Jr. has looked the part of a future fantasy asset, but we aren’t there just yet. Despite showing some nice poise and patience through two starts, he finished safely outside of the top 20 at the position in both outings.
Fantasy managers should love his willingness to weigh down his top option with targets, as that is an easy box to check and a way to elevate your fantasy floor. There’s a fantasy skill set in his profile, but we just aren’t there yet.
Mitchell Trubisky, QB | BUF (at NE)
Mitchell Trubisky is a decent fill-in fantasy guy, at least in terms of the wild wackiness of Week 18, but he’s likely to cede a few snaps or a series to Josh Allen on the front end so Allen can keep his NFL active consecutive starts streak going.
On top of that, the Bills are essentially using this as a preseason game, meaning Trubisky should get a good look from that point, but he may also need to yield a quarter of play or thereabouts to Mike White on the back end of the game.
The Bills have the capability of running up points no matter who is out there, especially when you consider their opponent might not mind getting the No. 1 overall pick in April.
Just know that comparable options such as Joshua Dobbs or Aidan O’Connell might get a full game this week, while Trubisky will be some degree short.
Patrick Mahomes, QB | KC (at DEN)
Updated at 2:55 ET on Sunday, January 5
Mahomes is inactive for today's game.
It’s almost eerie how similar, despite a variety of injuries and moving pieces, Patrick Mahomes’ stat line looks to what he did last regular season (2023 is on top, 2024 is below):
With Xavier Worthy coming on strong late in the season and Hollywood Brown nearing full strength, there’s plenty to like about Mahomes’ prospects in postseason formats. Add in Rashee Rice returning to action, and I’d imagine there will be little hesitation in going back to No. 15 next season when the draft season is here.
As for Week 18, the Chiefs have everything locked up and no reason to overextend a nucleus of skill position players who have essentially all been banged up at one point or another this season.
I won’t have him ranked as a Tier 1 option at the position next season like I did entering this season, but with the best pass-catching core he’s ever had, I’m viewing 4,000 yards through the air and 30 total touchdowns as something of a floor – that’s not something many can claim.
Sam Darnold, QB | MIN (at DET)
I didn’t think we’d be at this point where I’d have Sam Darnold ranked as a top-five quarterback, but here we are.
This season, he has 12 games with multiple touchdown passes, a number that only Joe Burrow (13) has topped. He’s been consistently remarkable, and he’s not just riding the coattails of Justin Jefferson — Jordan Addison is trending in the right direction and Jalen Nailor has seven TDs this season (six more than he previously had on his NFL résumé before 2024).
Darnold completed 81.5% of his passes in Week 7 against a healthy version of this Lions defense, something that is far from the case right now. He’s been a top 10 signal caller in five of his past seven games, and I would genuinely be surprised if he didn’t add to that total in the final game of the 2024 regular season.
Spencer Rattler, QB | NO (at TB)
Spencer Rattler has completed 56% of his passes just once this season and has two more multi-interception games than he has multi-TD games. I’m not sure how much of his struggles we can put directly on him, but fantasy box scores don’t ask questions when it comes to who is to blame.
The Saints simply lack viable playmakers at every offensive level right now, and Rattler isn’t currently the type of elevating talent that can bring a below-average supporting cast into fantasy relevance.
If you’re not considering a single Saint, you’re a happier person as a result.
Tua Tagovailoa, QB | MIA (at NYJ)
Updated at 2:55 ET on Sunday, January 5
Tagovailoa is inactive for today's game.
Tua Tagovailoa’s status is uncertain for this week, but I’m comfortable enough with what he has put on film this year to say that he fits the “if he plays for his team, he plays for your fantasy team” mantra.
Tagovailoa has five top-10 finishes this season, one of which came in Week 14 against the Jets (QB5 with 331 passing yards and a pair of touchdowns). It’s not yet clear whether the Dolphins will have Jaylen Waddle back, but taking on a defense that ranks 18th in terms of limiting YAC is a good spot for this quick-release offense, no matter the status of its WR2.
I have a spot tucked just inside of my top 12 for Tagovailoa should we get news that he is cleared ahead of the week kicking off.
Tyler Huntley, QB | MIA (at NYJ)
Tyler Huntley averaged 8.7 yards per pass and had one touchdown on 26 attempts against the Browns on Sunday — in his first 66 passes this season, he averaged 5.7 yards per pass and had one touchdown.
He posted a strong effort last week, and while the Jets’ defense is taking on water, I’m not ready to label Huntley as a viable asset should he get the call for Tua Tagovailoa (hip) again in the season finale.