It’s Week 17, and for fantasy football leagues, it means you’re playing for the championship title, or if you’re in leagues that go to Week 18, you’re fighting for a chance to play in the championship game. You either win or go home — it’s as simple as that.
There are always plenty of questions about who to start and who to sit in your lineups. Below, we’ve provided analysis for every fantasy-relevant quarterback in every game this weekend.
If you’re looking for all positions, head to our Week 16 Fantasy Football Start-Sit Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Aaron Rodgers | NYJ (at BUF)
Updated at 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, December 29
Rodgers is active for today's game.
I went on a bit of a rant last week about why Aaron Rodgers’ heater was unlikely to extend into Week 16 and it worked out!
The future Hall of Famer wasn’t a top-20 QB after consecutive top-12 finishes at the position. If you’re betting on a rebound this week, I think it’s a bet on this run game, and while I won’t come out as strong as last week, I think that’s dangerous.
Back in Week 6, Rodgers had 294 yards with two touchdowns and one interception against the Bills, a production level you’d likely sign up for this time around if asked. In that performance, he had seven play-action completions totaling 131 yards, plays that were made possible by a successful running attack (21 carries for 121 yards). The question is if they can repeat that level of success on the ground in order to open the passing game up.
Buffalo can be had on the ground if you can remain competitive, so the matchup in that regard isn’t too scary. My concern is the Jets themselves and their trajectory. If you exclude the Week 15 games in Jacksonville, understanding that the Jaguars aren’t exactly the shining example of even an average NFL franchise, here are New York’s recent yards-per-carry numbers.
I’ve got Rodgers ranked in the Patrick Mahomes (at PIT) and C.J. Stroud (vs. BAL) tier — interestingly enough, a spot in which you don’t want to be. I’m looking for any excuse I can find to play someone else, and that includes taking a ride on the Anthony Richardson rollercoaster (at NYG).
Aidan O’Connell | LV (at NO)
The only quarterbacks with 150+ attempts and a lower touchdown rate than Aidan O’Connell this season are Spencer Rattler and Jacoby Brissett.
And yes, if you were wondering if Mac Jones, Daniel Jones, and/or Deshaun Watson have enough attempts to qualify, they do. Interestingly enough, his efficiency across the board improves when facing the blitz; it’s almost as if the less time he has to overthink things, the better.
That’s not the case for everyone, but it also might not matter this week with the ninth-lowest blitz rate coming to town. We need O’Connell to do one thing, and that’s funnel as many targets as humanly possible to Brock Bowers. He’s succeeded in doing that; if he can continue to do so, that’ll work. You’re not trying to invest mental/emotional energy into this team (or this game, for that matter) if you can avoid it.
Anthony Richardson | IND (at NYG)
Updated at 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, December 29
Richardson is inactive for today's game.
At this point, you know exactly what you’re getting from Anthony Richardson. For better or worse, what he is going to try to do is predictable — you just have to decide if you can stomach it.
For those fantasy managers trying to decide whether to do just that, the decision just became a lot easier with the Colts ruling him out for Week 17’s game.
On the surface, the Giants sounded like a good matchup, partly because they are a bad football team that just gave up 34 points to a Falcons team starting a rookie quarterback for the first time and partly because it’s true.
This defense is a bottom-three unit when it comes to defending the deep pass (yards per attempt, touchdown rate, and completion percentage). I’m not trying to sell you that this defense is better than you think. I was, however, more concerned about them in this specific spot, and isn’t that what we are talking about?
They rank fifth in blitz rate through 16 weeks (31.8%; NFL average: 25.2%), which, as you might imagine, would have introduced all sorts of downsides for Richardson. His passer rating is underwhelming across the board, but it does dip by 20.6% when the opponent brings pressure, so I’m not sure those fun deep ball numbers have been accessed.
Also, what would have worked against Indy’s volatile QB was facing a top-10 red-zone defense. He had the designed five-yard score last week and is a tank when in close, but if there’s one spot that this Giants’ defense has put up a fight, it’s after they’ve allowed you to get inside their 20-yard line.
If he was playing, I would have told you to do what you want as I can’t project Richardson’s randomness with as much confidence as I can others, and I’m aware that he’s run for five scores in his past five games.
His skill set is certainly more friendly for our game than the one he gets paid to play. I just didn’t love this spot for him as much as you might at first blush.
Baker Mayfield | TB (vs. CAR)
It’s easy to look back and see an underwhelming Baker Mayfield game against these Panthers in a narrow Week 13 victory in overtime (235 passing yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions), but I’m just fine with writing that off.
In the three games since, Mayfield has a 71.2% completion rate and a 9.1% touchdown rate. He continues to add just enough with his legs to make an impact (79 rushing yards in those games).
When you consider that he’s been better at home than on the road this year (17 touchdown passes in front of his home fans with at least 19 fantasy points in four of his past five such games), I think we are looking at a top-10 quarterback this week that I’d be more comfortable in playing than Jared Goff or Jordan Love.
The Panthers are the second most vulnerable defense in terms of deep completion percentage this season (55.2%), and with a pair of vertical threats, I expect Tampa Bay to pick at that scab consistently.
Mayfield’s final line last week was strong (303 passing yards with another 42 on the ground and two scores through the air), and he could have given you another 7.8 points if Jalen McMillan didn’t have a 46-yard touchdown wrestled away from him at the last minute.
Brock Purdy | SF (vs. DET)
Brock Purdy has thrown for 300 yards and multiple scores in two of his past three games, though asking him to do that against the Lions is a bit of a tall request.
We know this Detroit defense is banged up, but they were impressive in shutting down the Bears last week. Of course, this is a different animal, but even if you think they have some decline, there’s not a cliff awaiting.
Purdy’s struggles in the short passing game have been pronounced since Christian McCaffrey was lost for the season. He has a career completion percentage on passes thrown under 10 yards of 71.8%, but over the past two weeks, we are looking at 61.7%.
Purdy’s profile doesn’t come with much upside, and there is a risk, given the matchup. He’s sitting just outside of my top 12 this week — I’d rather go with Tua Tagovailoa in Cleveland or Bo Nix in the premier spot against the Bengals.
Bryce Young | CAR (at TB)
Updated at 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, December 29
Young is active for today's game
Bryce Young is a work in progress. Next season will be a big one for his development, but there is no denying that there have been breadcrumbs laid.
In Weeks 12-16, he has not one, not two, but three top-12 finishes. That’s a fun fact by itself, and it only gains when you consider that Patrick Mahomes, C.J. Stroud, and Kyler Murray have three such finishes over that stretch combined.
He was unimpressive from a rate standpoint in the first meeting this season with the Bucs (6.5 yards per pass and a 2.2% touchdown rate), but he was able to volume his way to a fine stat line thanks to overtime (298 passing yards and a touchdown).
Young comes with a wide weekly range of outcomes and limited consistency. Next season might be interesting, but for now, only two-QB/Superflex leagues are concerned about him in a meaningful way.
Cooper Rush | DAL (at PHI)
Brandon Aubrey has made more 55+ yard field goals this season (six) than the Cowboys have made 55+ yard plays during the regular season since the start of 2023 (five).
Things aren’t great in Dallas these days, but Cooper Rush does have 290 passing yards or multiple touchdown tosses in four of his past five games. Like half a dozen quarterbacks that will be gracing NFL fields this week, his value is not what we are worried about as much as it is his ability to get his top option involved.
Mission accomplished up to this point.
The Eagles’ defense is elite, and Rush isn’t likely to finish the week with top-15 or even top-20 numbers (Week 10 in this spot: 23 passes for 45 yards with zero touchdowns and zero interceptions). But if he can get CeeDee Lamb his required 10 looks, the fantasy community will give Rush a nice firm handshake and nod.
Derek Carr | NO (vs. LV)
Updated at 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, December 29
Carr is inactive for today's game.
Derek Carr has the potential to return this week for the Saints for reasons unknown, but his status shouldn’t be of concern in fantasy circles given the carnage around him at the skill positions.
Even with talent coming in and out, Carr has failed to throw multiple touchdown passes in the majority of his games this season, and that is going to render any pocket-locked signal-caller as close to useless.
I give him credit for trying to return to action and finish the season, but my fantasy bills aren’t paid on credit.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson | CLE (vs. MIA)
Updated at 2:35 PM ET on Sunday, December 29
Thompson-Robinson is active for today's game.
If you ever need to feel good about your quarterback (be it for your favorite team or your fantasy squad), throw on the game film from Cleveland’s loss in Cincinnati last week, and you’ll be in a better mental spot.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson’s sack count was higher than the yards he averaged per pass, and I’m not sure the box score (20-of-34 for 157 yards, zero touchdowns, and two interceptions) even does it justice.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson on passes thrown 15+ yards this season: 0-11 with 3 interceptions pic.twitter.com/lFzMzsSJHM
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) December 23, 2024
Could we get Jameis Winston back in our lives? DTR suffered a calf injury on Sunday and is being managed thus far. The Dolphins allow the third-highest deep completion percentage, a weakness that holds much more weight if it’s Winston under center.
Drew Lock | NYG (vs. IND)
Updated at 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, December 29
Lock is active and starting today
A heel injury kept Drew Lock out of Week 15’s loss to the Ravens, and there was the thought that it may end his season. Well, it didn’t, but that doesn’t make him a name you have to track in any capacity.
For our purposes, the season is, and has been, over. In his five appearances this season, Lock has completed just 51.1% of his passes, and over the past four seasons, he has more interceptions (24) than touchdown passes (22).
I probably didn’t tell you anything you didn’t know there, so I’ll share with you that Lock is another one of those go-by-my-middle-name guys. So, go ahead and break that out at your family gatherings this week. Impress with your array of random knowledge. Drew Lock’s first name is … Paul.
Jalen Hurts | PHI (vs. DAL)
Updated at 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, December 29
Hurts did not clear concussion protocol and was ruled out on Friday. Kenny Pickett will start.
Hurts completed 1 of 4 passes for 11 yards in Week 16 before entering concussion protocol and being ruled out for the remainder of the game. This was obviously a brutal break for fantasy managers, as there was no reason to not play him with the utmost confidence (2023 was his first season without a DNP).
Process-wise, you did nothing wrong. I understand that prioritizing process over results this time of year is irritating to hear, but you did nothing wrong.
This is pretty clearly a situation to keep tabs on and will require some creativity on your end if you still have meaningful games in front of you. Kenny Pickett isn’t the answer to your issues.
Hurts turned 14 completions into 202 yards and a pair of scores (56 rush yards and two touchdowns) in the Week 10 shellacking of the Cowboys — Pickett isn’t assuming that sort of projection.
Maybe you go to Michael Penix Jr. (at WAS) or lean into the recent struggles of the Bears and take a chance on a sporadic producer in Geno Smith.
Jared Goff | DET (at SF)
Jared Goff isn’t going to win the MVP, but he is certainly playing like one, and it’s finally spilling over into our world with consecutive top-five finishes. This is a potential pace-down spot against the 49ers, but efficiency has been the name of the game all season long for the Lions. That should again be the case against the NFL’s third-worst red-zone defense.
The home/road splits are still a thing for Goff, but he’s posted a passer rating north of 135 on the road three times this season. I’m not worried about that narrative and have him ranked as my QB8.
Jayden Daniels | WAS (vs. ATL)
Jayden Daniels has been a top-seven producer at the position in four straight games and has seemingly found our silly game so easy that he’s now elevating Jamison Crowder to vintage levels.
The rookie has four straight games with at least 30 rushing yards and multiple touchdown tosses — a fifth straight would make him the first in NFL history to accomplish that feat. Currently, he’s in a class with Lamar Jackson, Cam Newton, Randall Cunningham, and Mitch Trubisky as the players to have done it in four straight.
Every fun stat thas an outlier — shoutout to all the Mitch Trubisky fans who are out there!
Daniels is everything we wanted Robert Griffin III to be, and there’s no reason to think that this train will get knocked off the tracks any time soon.
Joe Flacco | IND (at NYG)
This is a good spot for Joe Flacco, though counting on a pocket-locked quarterback with a peaking run game is a bit dangerous. He’s completed 66.5% of his passes this season, but his best counting number performances have come in passing favorable game scripts, something this does not project as.
I currently have him sitting at QB14 this week behind another pocket QB in Aaron Rodgers, a signal-caller who is more likely to be playing catchup (at BUF) than Flacco (at NYG).
Jordan Love | GB (at MIN)
Jordan Love wasn’t asked to do much in Monday night’s thrashing of the New Orleans Saints (16 completions for 182 yards and a touchdown), something that I don’t think we have to worry about this week.
Or maybe we do?
The Packers rank third in rush rate over expectation this season and appear more content to pound Josh Jacobs now than at any point this season. Not only does this help keep Justin Jefferson off the field, but it also wears down a defense and limits the number of times that Love can put the ball in harm’s way.
Working in Love’s favor is that the blitz-happy Vikings have so much going on around the line of scrimmage that they’re a tough defense when it comes to finishing drives against on the ground, allowing one rushing touchdown for every 48.1 opponent attempts (third-best).
Cheap touchdowns might be needed in this game, which I apparently like less from an offensive output standpoint than the bookmakers (under 49 points!).
Love’s QB+ numbers are actually better on the road than at home this season, but they haven’t translated into big fantasy production, and that’s the name of the game.
Love’s fantasy finishes, road games in 2024:
- Week 1, Eagles: QB11
- Week 5, Rams: QB14
- Week 8, Jaguars: QB35
- Week 11, Bears: QB11
- Week 14, Lions: QB15
- Week 15, Seahawks: QB10
If you’re combing through the box-score data and a 389-yard, four-touchdown first meeting against the Vikings jumps out, don’t forget that three TD passes in the fourth quarter of a one-sided game are fueling that stat line.
All production counts, sure, but are you projecting garbage time in a game where the home team is favored by 1.5 points? I’m not.
I think you can start Love; he’s my QB11. But I don’t think you have to — I have Jared Goff (at SF) and Bo Nix (at CIN) ranked just ahead of him.
Josh Allen | BUF (vs. NYJ)
I think we can give Josh Allen a pass for last week from an analysis standpoint. You, of course, can’t do that if his slow game against the Patriots knocked you out of the playoffs.
Yet, if you’re still playing a meaningful game this week, there should be exactly zero hesitation in going back to the MVP front-runner who was a top-two signal-caller in each of the three weeks prior to Week 16.
The Bills showed us that they knew how to beat the Jets back in Week 6 (Allen had a rushing score, but he also completed 15 of 18 non-pressured passes for 148 yards and a touchdown), and I see no reason to think they can’t have success in a similar fashion this time around.
Jets’ pressure rates, 2024:
- Weeks 1-13: 39.9%
- Weeks 14-16: 24.8%
Don’t overthink this.
Kenny Pickett | PHI (vs. DAL)
Updated at 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, December 29
Pickett is active and will make his first start of the season today
Kenny Pickett has as many touchdown passes as interceptions for his career, and without much rushing equity, he’s not the type of backup quarterback that will walk into even reasonable fantasy value.
The Eagles have little motivation to force the issue this week, thus making Pickett far more risk than any reward as a spot-starting option.
Mac Jones | JAX (vs. TEN)
Mac Jones’ final stat line ended up looking fine against the Raiders last week (247 yards and a touchdown), but if not for a single play (62-yard touchdown to Brian Thomas Jr.), he would have posted an absolute dud in a great spot.
Jones is at obvious risk of being involved in another ugly slugfest this week, and with a 2.4% touchdown rate this season, I have no interest in going this direction under any circumstances. Much like Aidan O’Connell in Vegas, or even his opposing number in this game, Jones has one job, and that is to feed his top receiving option like his life depends on it.
Jones’ life may not, but our fantasy seasons do!
Mason Rudolph | TEN (at JAX)
Bar trivia time: Entering Week 17, how many players have an active streak longer than Mason Rudolph in terms of multi-touchdown pass games?
Four.
Rudolph has done it in three straight, a mark that ranks behind only Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Jared Goff, and Jayden Daniels.
I could just leave that note there and let you get in your own head about getting creative with Rudolph in deep leagues or DFS formats, but let’s not do that.
The Jags own the lowest blitz rate in the league, and you might assume that means that Rudolph won’t be forced into bad decisions this week. But as it turns out, he’s plenty capable of making those bad throws all by himself.
It’s almost like the Titans have a type.
Rudolph hasn’t just thrown a pick in each of his five starts; he’s thrown a pick when not blitzed in each of them, including three last week in Indianapolis.
If you want to label Rudolph as this game’s most valuable fantasy QB, you have my blessing. If you want to have exposure to him in any capacity, I have questions.
Michael Penix Jr. | ATL (at WAS)
I thought Michael Penix Jr. showed well for himself in the first start of his career, but we are still a ways away from him being fantasy-viable.
That said, Penix completed two-thirds of his passes against the Giants last week and faces a Commanders defense that is bottom seven in both red-zone efficiency and YAC allowed to receivers.
There are a few rookie QBs we are counting on for fantasy production this season. Penix is not there, but I think he can do enough to keep Atlanta’s primary skill options fed.
Sam Darnold | MIN (vs. GB)
Sam Darnold was great last week in Seattle (246 passing yards with three passing scores), has been great most of the season, and didn’t stumble in Lambeau (275 passing yards with three scores).
He’s thrown multiple touchdown passes in five of his past six games, and nothing in his profile suggests that regression is coming. With T.J. Hockenson proving healthy, Jordan Addison emerging, and Justin Jefferson Justin Jefferson-ing, this Vikings squad is a dangerous one to bet against at this point.
The Packers rank 27th in blitz rate this season (18%), a strategy that has been picked at by Minnesota lately. Since Week 12, Lamar Jackson is the only QB with a higher passing touchdown rate when not blitzed than Darnold — this could be a highly entertaining game that paves the way for another fun NFC North battle next week with the Lions and Vikings.
Spencer Rattler | NO (vs. LV)
There are a few instances this week where our DFS discipline is going to be challenged — “I know [INSERT QB] is struggling and might not be NFL-caliber, but how can I not get exposure to [INSERT DEFENSE]?”
Stay strong, my friends; stay strong.
Spencer Rattler was a disaster against the Packers on Monday night, and it resulted in the Saints being the first team shut out for four quarters this season. I’ll take the over on 0.5 points scored in this spot, but what is it that New Orleans’ backup QB can do that has you the least bit interested?
He’s run for over 25 yards in three starts this season, and that’s something, though his Saints have lost each of those games by at least 23 points while garbage time has factored in. I’m not sure either team is capable of providing such a script this week, so we can rule out the empty stats at the end of the game.
The layup targets are supposed to be where a QB like this thrives, especially in a playbook full of them. Not so much. Over his past three outings, Rattler has completed just 24 of 51 short passes, a rate (47.1%) that falls well short of the NFL average (73.5%)
There’s always 2025, Saints fans.
Tua Tagovailoa | MIA (at CLE)
Updated at 2:35 PM ET on Sunday, December 29
Tagovailoa is inactive for today's game.
Tua Tagovailoa is far from a perfect fantasy quarterback. He doesn’t run (two rushing yards thus far in December), and he doesn’t stretch the field through the air. Instead, he relies fully on his playmakers to do the heavy lifting.
That’s not a profile I make a habit of investing in, especially with one of those pieces (Jaylen Waddle) battling a knee injury, but I think this has the potential to be the week — the week where you cash a nice DFS lineup courtesy of an explosive Dolphins game at low ownership.
Think about it.
Tagovailoa is unlikely to attract ownership for the reasons mentioned above. He’s also not in great form (411 passing yards with more interceptions than touchdowns over the past two weeks), and this game is being played in the Northeast.
But wait.
Is a warm front coming up the coast for the week?
But wait.
Do the Browns rank 31st in deep pass interception rate and 32nd in yards per short completion?
If either the Chargers or Broncos lose this week (both play before Miami is scheduled to kick off), the Dolphins will still have postseason life. It would be little more than a pulse, but that heart would still be beating if one of those things happens, thus giving us a high-motivation spot against a defense that is playing out the string (all four losses during their current skid have come by multiple scores).
Interesting.
Obviously, I’d prefer Waddle be healthy and to get a Denver loss on Saturday to ensure these things, but the more ambiguity that takes place, the more I like the odds of getting a condensed passing game with upside at a very low cost.
Tentative Main Slate Soppe DFS Lineup
- QB – Tua Tagovailoa
- RB – Jonathan Taylor
- RB – Jerome Ford
- WR – Tyreek Hill
- WR – Jayden Reed
- WR – Adam Thielen
- TE – Chig Okonkwo
- FLEX – Jalen McMillan
- D/ST – Indianapolis Colts
Let’s pay off some Christmas debt!