It’s Week 16, and for fantasy football leagues, it means it’s playoff time. You either win or go home — it’s as simple as that.
There are always plenty of questions about who to start and who to sit in your lineups. Below, we’ve provided analysis for every fantasy-relevant quarterback in every game this weekend.
If you’re looking for all positions, head to our Week 16 Fantasy Football Start-Sit Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Aaron Rodgers | NYJ (vs. LAR)
Oh, buddy.
I get a hard time for my, let’s say, lack of word efficiency. If I were creating a résumé based on how I write, I’d flip that weakness into a strength and label it as an “unbridled work ethic that will stop at nothing to provide the most detailed and well-thought-out analysis.” But I get it, and you’re right.
More is more in my head when it comes to writing. Ask any boss I’ve worked for, ask my wife, ask my hot water-heater guy that I’m bouncing this Aaron Rodgers profile off of right now.
I’m wordy. Sue me.
For Rodgers, it’s deserving. My hunch is that you’ve seen the clips of him throwing Davante Adams open, racking up 600+ yards over a two-week Florida spin, and generally playing with a smile on his face. That’s all great and maybe you took a flier on him at the beginning of the month and are benefiting in a major way.
Great. Love that for you.
Aaron Rodgers over the last 2 weeks:
💥 628 yards
💥 4 TDs
💥 0 INTsDavante Adams over the last 2 weeks:
💥 18 receptions
💥 307 yards
💥 3 TDsWe're seeing this duo at the level we always hoped to see 🥹#Jets pic.twitter.com/LJhyT1UBG2
— Harrison Glaser (@NYJetsTFMedia) December 16, 2024
But does any of that production get you a win in Week 16? Not in my leagues, so let’s evaluate this week as its own entity.
This season, 39.1% of Rodgers’ touchdown passes have come from outside the red zone, an unsustainably high rate. The league average trends around 70%, and while Rodgers doesn’t have to apologize for the chunk plays resulting in touchdowns, it’s not the easiest thing to continue doing at any point, let alone as the weather flips.
Counting on those scores becomes even more difficult against a Rams defense. Los Angeles hasn’t allowed a touchdown pass from outside the red zone in four of its past six games and in seven of 11 after a slow start. They also happen to grade out as the sixth-best red-zone defense in the NFL, so banking on red-zone touchdown pass regression for Rodgers isn’t exactly a safe bet, either.
There’s more.
In Aaron Donald’s last Defensive Player of the Year season (2020), the Rams created pressure on 44.2% of blitzes. That’s a strong mark that ranked sixth that season, with the Chiefs leading the way at 49.8%.
The Rams currently sit at 50%. Now we are onto something. Since the beginning of 2022, Rodgers has thrown a touchdown on 3.4% of such (pressured while blitzed) attempts. I assume you need context on that rate, and I’m nothing if not a man of the people.
- NFL average: 4.8%
Need more? Fine, needy reader. The almighty quartet of Aidan O’Connell, Gardner Minshew II, Mac Jones, and Daniel Jones have a 3.5% pass touchdown rate over that stretch.
Not pretty.
Rodgers has been absurdly productive over the past two weeks in play-action situations (19.9 yards per completion and 11.6 yards per attempt), but why fake the run if it’s not being stopped?
Through 15 weeks, against running backs, the Rams rank 22nd in rushing TD rate inside the five-yard line, 25th in EPA, and 26th in third-down conversion rate.
With freezing temperatures expected at MetLife with some wind to consider, looking for a 41-year-old to sustain the excellence he showed in sunny Florida recently is optimistic.
So, yeah, the fact that Rodgers has thrown for more yards in consecutive second halves than he did in any of his three full games prior is a fun and accurate stat. I want to see discount double-check celebrations at the end of a lost season as much as anyone, but there’s not a chance I’m putting the fate of my fantasy season in Rodgers’ hands in this ultra-specific spot.
Aidan O’Connell | LV (vs. JAX)
The outlook is cloudy, come back later.
I can’t be the only one who feels like this Aidan O’Connell health situation is a run of randomly assigned eight-ball quotes, but here we are. At this moment, his status isn’t clear, but what is pretty obvious is that, for your QB slot, it shouldn’t matter.
I’ll address the ramifications on O’Connell’s two pass catchers, but a player with a 3.3% career touchdown rate operating at less than full strength without a stable run game just isn’t going to cut it for me. And it’s not difficult to make the case that a compromised version of O’Connell could still be the preferred path for your Raiders pieces.
Anthony Richardson | IND (vs. TEN)
If you live by Anthony Richardson, at this point, you inevitably die by Anthony Richardson.
I wasn’t exactly celebrating in the streets, but I had a contrarian Richardson lineup in my DFS portfolio last week, and after one drive, I thought I was in the running for the smartest man on the planet.
- 22 passing yards
- 28 rushing yards
- Rushing TD
At low ownership because of poor play and a brutal matchup, I thought I was sneaky. That I was the one who spoke a big game in the perfect spot into existence.
That, friends, didn’t happen. As it turns out, 67.3% of Richardson’s fantasy points for the day were scored on that first possession. Again, we were left wanting more. The man has thrown 20 passes in a game eight times this season and failed to complete the majority of them in seven instances.
What was I truly thinking was going to happen?
Most games since 2022 with 20+ attempts and a CMP% of 50% or less:
- Richardson in 2024 alone: Seven
- Zach Wilson: Six
- Baker Mayfield: Five
Lovely.
I could tell you that the Titans own the sixth-worst red-zone defense in the NFL, which is 100% true. But I don’t wish for you the level of “how could I have assumed anything different” second-guessing that I experienced for the final 55 minutes of Week 15 in watching every Colts snap.
Richardson is my QB17 this week with the full understanding that there will be highlight plays in both directions. I simply don’t have the stones to go back to the well — I’ve been burned too many times for such a short period of time. Maybe this is a relationship the two of us can figure out — I hear that “time heals all wounds.”
Maybe.
Baker Mayfield | TB (at DAL)
Baker Mayfield has a level of inevitability to his 2024 profile, and all “inevitable” traits of the 2024 Cowboys are negative, making this the profile of a QB1 without much question.
QB games with 18+ fantasy points, 2024:
- Lamar Jackson: 12
- Josh Allen: 11
- Baker Mayfield: 11
- Jayden Daniels: 10
That, of course, is an impressive list (I’ll take the L on Anthony Richardson weekly, but you have to give me this QB sleeper call from June, but it gets even better when you consider the skill set limitations.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m as much a fan of reckless Mayfield runs as anyone, but I don’t think it’s a stretch to call him “less athletic” than the other names on that list.
Here’s what that list looks like if we only include games with under 45 rushing yards:
- Baker Mayfield: 11
- Sam Darnold: Nine
- Josh Allen: Seven
- Joe Burrow: Seven
Mayfield takes that form into a matchup against a Dallas defense that ranks 24th in passer rating, 25th in completion percentage, and 31st in yards per attempt. He’s a big reason why you’re in the spot you are right now (10 top-10 finishes), and there’s no reason to pivot.
Brock Purdy | SF (at MIA)
What has happened to our reliable Brock Purdy?
Last season, Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts were the only QBs in the league with more 20-point performances. The ceiling wasn’t elite, but we felt good about what we’d get weekly, and that was enough to start Purdy with confidence.
This season? Not so much. Over his last five games, Purdy has cleared 18.0 fantasy points three times and failed to reach 4.0 twice. That’s not what we signed up for, and it’s possible that last week’s dud against a vulnerable Rams defense doomed you.
Fantasy doesn’t always mirror reality, but in this case, the inconsistencies align. Against LA, Purdy completed just 9 of 19 non-pressured passes, the worst rate of his career (47.4%). His lack of confidence in his bail-out options is clearly a part of this mess, and, sad to say, that’s not going to change.
Purdy’s completion percentage this season drops from 70.8% when Christian McCaffrey is on the field to 63.8% without the star tailback.
But there’s hope. Er, there’s hope if you think this 49ers team can live up to their potential for the next 60 minutes, understanding that there aren’t likely to be weather concerns and a mini-bye this late in the season is never a bad thing.
Since the beginning of October …
- Purdy’s fantasy points in wins: 24.0 PPG
- Purdy’s fantasy points in losses: 11.0 PPG
Your confidence in Purdy comes down to your projection of this game. I happen to like San Francisco’s chances, which is why he slips into my top 12 at the position. However, I’d be lying if I said I was starting him with the utmost confidence (eight carries for 18 yards thus far in December).
I’m nothing if not a hopeless optimist, so I’ll leave you with this — the last time Purdy had extended rest, he threw for a season-high 353 yards in Florida. This offense remains talented, and if this turns into a track meet, we should see the “good” version of this now wild card option.
Bryce Young | CAR (vs. ARI)
The 83-yard touchdown pass to Jalen Coker under duress was good to see, but on 14 other pressured dropbacks against Dallas, Bryce Young produced one (1) passing yard.
Over the past month or so, we seem to get breadcrumbs when it comes to a positive profile, but nothing substantial enough to have my interest in any capacity for the remainder of this season. Case in point: Young hit Micah Parsons — unofficially a top-three most scary player on a football field these days — with a spin move last week, and it worked!
He then finished the run with a lost fumble.
That’s pretty much Young’s career arc up to this point. I’ll be paying attention in the offseason, not in the current times with no room for error in the fantasy playoffs.
Caleb Williams | CHI (vs. DET)
Caleb Williams racked up the fantasy numbers in the late stages of the first meeting with the Lions, and while those points counted for you in Week 13, I’m not reading into his 295 yards of offense with three scores as predictive in the slightest for this weekend’s rematch.
The rookie is inconsistent from possession to possession, and that’s a tough way to live against the second-best defense in opponent passer rating. I had hopes this offseason that Williams would offer meaningful production with his legs. Instead, his athleticism is being used to run for his life.
The future is brighter than the present for Williams, both as a fantasy asset and real-life QB.
Cooper Rush | DAL (vs. TB)
Cooper Rush has thrown for multiple touchdowns in three of his past four games. That’s a start, but without much in the way of yardage (under 215 in three straight), asking him to churn out top-15 numbers, even if playing catch-up, is too optimistic.
Rush has been doing the two things we need from him — hand the ball to Rico Dowdle and weigh down CeeDee Lamb with targets. If he can continue to do that, this will be a successful week.
Rush himself is nothing but a low-end QB2 with a very limited ceiling.
Derek Carr | NO (at GB)
Derek Carr (fractured left hand) has yet to officially be ruled out for the season, but all reports seem to be pointing in that direction in this lost season for New Orleans.
Carr still has two years remaining on his deal (though the team does have an out available to them this summer), making it important to note that — assuming his 2024 is over — he will have posted a triple-digit deep passer rating for the sixth time in his career. He doesn’t get the love he should for his touch on the long pass, and that will likely be reflected when I am higher than you on Chris Olave this summer.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson | CLE (at CIN)
Dorian Thompson-Robinson got a chance to impress earlier this season, and…well, he failed.
Against the woeful Bengals defense, DTR completed just 11 of 24 passes for 82 yards and two interceptions. In that loss, he did pick up 44 yards on the ground, and if you’re going to be in any capacity on him in the rematch, his athleticism will have to factor in.
Cleveland’s offense will look very different from the overly aggressive stylings of Jameis Winston. While that might mean fewer turnovers, I expect fewer scoring chances, which drags down the projectable value of all involved.
Drake Maye | NE (at BUF)
Drake Maye has over 2.5 fantasy points as a runner with over 200 passing yards in four straight games. That has allowed him to establish a reasonable production floor with four top-15 finishes over his past five games but hasn’t resulted in much of a ceiling (one top 10).
There are weekly flashes to get excited about long term. Last week, Maye completed all 10 of his first-half passes and, late in the game, had a scrambling weird flip pass to DeMario Douglas in the end zone.
That play looked like something that Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes would do. No, he’s not on that level and probably never will be, but it’s clear who he modeled his game after, and that gives him interesting upside as a punt QB option when you draft this summer, especially if the Pats can add some talent around him.
Drew Lock | NYG (at ATL)
A heel injury kept Drew Lock out of last week’s loss to the Ravens but he will be back under center in Week 16.
For our purposes, the season is, and has been, over. In his five appearances this season, Lock has completed just 51.1% of his passes, and over the past four seasons, he has more interceptions (22) than touchdown passes (21).
Geno Smith | SEA (vs. MIN)
Week 9 was the last time Geno Smith finished inside of the top 20 at the position. Asking him to reverse that trend against the blitz-heaviest defense in the NFL is a tall order.
Seattle’s offense as a whole has been underwhelming of late. Five of the first six Seahawks games this season went over the betting total, but unders are 6-2 since.
I currently have Smith sitting outside of my top 20, ranking in the same range as the random number generator that is Anthony Richardson.
Jalen Hurts | PHI (at WAS)
The Eagles opened last season with a 10-1 run, in which they averaged 2.53 points per drive and scored a touchdown on 29.4% of drives. During their current 10-game win streak, they are putting 2.60 points on the board per drive (31.2% TD rate).
In short, this team is in elite form — this time at the right time.
Jalen Hurts completed 22 of 26 passes from within the pocket last Sunday (84.6%, his best mark since going 18 of 20 against the Falcons in Week 2), a development that makes him close to unstoppable (13+ rushing scores in three straight seasons).
I’m not reading too much into Hurts’ underwhelming first game against the Commanders. That was a short rest spot where they ran the ball 40 times. I’m looking for another 25-30 passes and 8-12 rush attempts, a profile that nearly locks Hurts into top-10 production and gives him access to another top-five week at the office.
Jameis Winston | CLE (at CIN)
Jameis Winston has been benched and all excitement for Cleveland’s skill players goes with him. While it’s the less fun option, there’s no denying that the move is a logical one.
Week 12 vs. Steelers: 2.4 points per drive
Week 13 at Broncos: 2.1 points per drive
Week 14 at Steelers: 1.2 points per drive
Week 15 vs. Chiefs: 0.5 points per drive
Dorian Thompson-Robinson takes over under center and will look to keep the Browns’ offense on the field in an effort to shorten the game against the explosive Bengals.
Jared Goff | DET (at CHI)
Is there a better player profile to describe the crazy nature of 2024 than Jared Goff?
Five weeks after winning a game in which he threw five interceptions, Goff lost a game with five touchdown passes.
Sure, that makes sense. For our purposes, the raw numbers looked amazing last week, and the style in which they were produced followed. Goff completed a season-high six deep passes against a strong Bills perimeter defense last week (three games prior: seven deep completions), a positive sign in an offense that has proven plenty capable of excelling in short-area situations.
With David Montgomery shelved for the remainder of the season, Goff is going to have to take on more responsibilities, something his fantasy managers have been asking for. With Sam LaPorta trending in a positive direction and Tim Patrick adding a third receiver to the mix, I’m fine with wagering on Goff against a Bears defense that has been trending in the wrong direction for a month now.
You have to be aware that this is a road game. Such games always carry risk for a dome team, but I feel good in labeling Goff as a top-10 QB option this weekend.
Jayden Daniels | WAS (vs. PHI)
Jayden Daniels has 10 top 12 finishes this season and his ability to maximize the high-leverage spots is what has my eye.
Over his past four games, Daniels is 11 of 13 with seven touchdowns when throwing inside the red zone. His athleticism and instincts can result in big plays, but if he’ s consistently dominating these situations with his ability to make quick/accurate reads, we are talking about a true week winner.
Daniels leads the league with six games this season with at least 30 pass and seven rush attempts. I suspect we’ll see plenty of him out in space in this spot against an Eagles defense that is second best at limiting WR YAC.
Joe Burrow | CIN (vs. CLE)
Last week, Joe Burrow tied the NFL record for consecutive games with 250+ passing yards and 3+ passing TDs (six). His numbers are that of a fantasy MVP — an award he can win without team success, unlike the NFL MVP honor.
I don’t think the Bengals need an excuse to put their trust on the shoulders of their quarterback. But the fact that the Browns are the top EPA rush defense only encourages Cincinnati to lean into their heavy pass rate over expectation game plan.
In Week 7, the Bengals’ run game never got going (25 carries for 59 yards) in this matchup, and I think that’s great when it comes to projecting their Week 16 passing numbers. In my opinion, either the rushing efficiency improves and frees up downfield options or Cincinnati forgoes the run altogether.
I’ll take either!
Jordan Love | GB (vs. NO)
The Saints’ pass defense is their strength (inside the top 10 in passer rating and pass touchdown rate), and with the Packers’ run game peaking, this could be a physical domination similar to what we saw from Green Bay in Seattle last week.
While I think that has the potential to cap Jordan Love’s ceiling (only threw 27 passes in Week 15), it does create a situation where efficiency due to single coverage is also projectable. That is why I think Love can give us his first top-10 finish since Week 6.
Last week, with Josh Jacobs bloodying the nose of the Seahawks, Love was able to get four of his teammates 3-5 receptions. If he spreads the ball around like that, asking for 250 yards and a few touchdowns is plenty reasonable.
Josh Allen | BUF (vs. NE)
Last Sunday, in Detroit, Josh Allen became the first player in NFL history with multiple pass TD and multiple rush TD in consecutive games. At some point this offseason, I’ll note all of the crazy Allen-centric numbers this season, but they’re growing by the week.
Josh Allen has 3 completions of 20+ yards to RBs in just over 7 minutes … Russell Wilson (Week 13) is the only other QB to do that IN A GAME this season pic.twitter.com/QODqHqweek
— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) December 15, 2024
Allen has been a top-two QB in three straight games and has finished as the top scorer at the position four times this season. He’s cleared 20 fantasy points in five of his past six games at home, and at this point, 20 points feels like a low expectation.
This is the first of two meetings with the Patriots over the next three weeks. If he’s going to finish this elite season with a fantasy Super Bowl-worthy performance, he’s going to have to solve this New England defense.
Kirk Cousins | ATL (vs. NYG)
Kirk Cousins struggled last week to the point where the Falcons essentially tried to melt the clock against an overmatched Raiders team.
With an interception in five straight games, Atlanta decided that its veteran QB was not their best way to make a playoff push, leading to Michael Penix Jr.’s elevation to the top of the depth chart.
Cousins was never labeled as the future of this franchise — but he’s no longer the present, either.
Kyler Murray | ARI (at CAR)
Kyler Murray has one top-20 finish this season since his QB4 performance in Week 10. This season, he has as many games without a TD pass as games with multiple passing scores. All of that said, a date with the Panthers has a way of correcting those ails. Carolina is one of four defenses this year allowing opponents to post an average passer rating in the triple digits.
Murray’s rushing production has been spotty (under 25 yards on the ground in six of his past seven games), and that keeps him from lineup-lock status. He’s in the same tier as Jordan Love for me this week — an inconsistent fantasy asset in a favorable spot where his team may not require him to post video game numbers in order to have success.
Mac Jones | JAX (at LV)
Mac Jones is 0 for 17 with five interceptions when throwing the ball more than 20 yards downfield this season. That is hard to comprehend, but it’s true.
Truly awful.
I was ready to talk up this matchup with Maxx Crosby on the shelf, but the Raiders, on a consistent blitz rate, saw their pressure rate actually spike last week, their first game without their defensive star. We are asking for Jones to support Brian Thomas Jr. and that’s about it.
Mason Rudolph | TEN (at IND)
Did you know that Mason Rudolph’s first name is “Brett”?
There ya go; now you can’t say I never teach you anything.
Rudolph was fine last week (209 passing yards with two touchdowns and an interception), but consider the source. He was able to leverage a Bengals matchup and kinda sorta almost be viable.
The Indianapolis matchup isn’t one that needs to be feared, but they aren’t Cincinnati.
Defensive ranks, 2024:
- Red-zone defense: Colts (17th), Bengals (31st)
- Goal-to-go defense: Colts (14th), Bengals (31st)
- Yards per completion: Colts (11th), Bengals (22nd)
- Deep pass TD%: Colts (second), Bengals (27th)
In a Superflex situation, I’d take Rudolph over a Xavier Worthy type, but that’s as far as I’m going.
Matthew Stafford | LAR (at NYJ)
Matthew Stafford has 17 touchdown passes against just two interceptions this season when not pressured (two touchdowns and two picks when feeling the heat). Why do I mention that?
Jets blitz rates, 2024:
- Weeks 3-7: 31.6%
- Weeks 8-15: 26.5%
Stafford is checking all of the boxes I need from a pocket-locked passer. Over his last two games, he’s completed 78.9% of passes in enemy territory with a 134.2 passer rating. He’s making the most of those opportunities and against a downward-trending defense, and that’s enough for me to consider him as a low-end QB1.
Michael Penix Jr. | ATL (vs. NYG)
Michael Penix Jr., the eighth overall pick in April, will make his starting debut this weekend with the postseason hopes of this franchise on his shoulders.
It’s a soft landing spot (bottom-five in interception rate, yards per attempt, completion percentage, and passer rating), but that doesn’t mean that you blindly start a rookie with your fantasy season on the line.
Realistically, I’m not changing much in terms of my rankings for Week 16 because we simply don’t know what to expect. Bijan Robinson and Drake London remain starters in all formats while Darnell Mooney and Kyle Pitts are outside of my comfort zone.
Sam Darnold | MIN (at SEA)
The Seahawks boast an average pass defense by any measure, and that makes this a reasonable bounce-back spot for Sam Darnold as he comes off of his first game in a month without multiple touchdown passes.
The 2024 version of Darnold is essentially 2023 Brock Purdy in that he has a strong supporting cast and is excelling, for the most part, at pulling the right levers at the right time.
He’s a low-end QB1 for me this week, with the thought being that we get the traditional 250 passing yards and two scores.
That stat line is fine if the rest of your team offers plus upside.
Spencer Rattler | NO (at GB)
Do you know how hard it is to appear in four games, have a 30+ yard completion in each of those contests, and still average under six yards per pass attempt?
That’s the situation we have with Spencer Rattler. This roster opened the season with plenty of playmakers capable of making impact plays, but just about all of them will be watching this game.
There are a handful of backup QBs starting this week, and Rattler is the one I have the least confidence in.
Tommy DeVito | NYG (at ATL)
Tommy DeVito has appeared in six straight games (96 pass attempts) without a touchdown pass. He’s dealing with a head injury, and the QB situation in New York is uncertain for the professional organization — for fantasy managers it’s easy.
You do something this offense can’t:
Pass.
Tua Tagovailoa | MIA (vs. SF)
Tua Tagovailoa struggled last week, snapping a streak of three straight top-seven performances in the process. I do think we get a bit of a bounce-back week, in part because Miami returns home and in part because the 49ers have struggled to defend the red zone lately (13 straight TDs allowed before a few stops late last week).
My issue with committing in full and ranking Tagovailoa as the top pocket passer on this slate is the possession count. The Dolphins are the eighth slowest moving offense while the 49ers rank dead last. That gives a QB like Tagovailoa almost no room for error if ranked as a top-six QB, a projection I just can’t support.
He’s my QB10 this week, a starter in most formats and willing of a mulligan when it comes to last week.
Will Levis | TEN (at IND)
Will Levis threw a pressured touchdown pass in the second quarter of Week 1’s loss to the Bears — he hasn’t thrown such a score since. That streak will continue through this week since he has been benched — during the holiday season — for Mason Rudolph.
The Titans are going to have to make some tough calls this summer, but it seems more likely than not that they will be restarting the rebuild on the offensive side of the ball.
