It’s Week 15, and for the majority of fantasy football leagues, it means it’s playoff time. For others, it’s the last week before the playoffs begin.
Whichever kind of league you’re in, there are always plenty of questions about who to start and who to sit in your lineups. Below, we’ve provided analysis for every fantasy-relevant quarterback in every game this weekend.
If you’re looking for all positions, head to our Week 15 Fantasy Football Start-Sit Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Aaron Rodgers | NYJ (at JAX)
Aaron Rodgers was very good on Sunday. Against the Dolphins, the future Hall of Famer produced a season-high 8.7 yards per pass, ripped off his first 300-yard effort in 35 games, and nearly led the Jets to an upset win over a Dolphins team that is still hanging onto postseason hope.
He looked reasonably spry, was without his star second-year running back, and heavily featured his dynamic receiving duo (Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson were responsible for 53.8% of his targets, 59.3% of his completions, and 65.8% of his passing yards).
He was QB11 on a week that featured six teams on a bye and multiple injuries to starting signal callers.
It was fun to see a vintage performance, but understand that we are a long way away from assuming that he is going to offer up viable fantasy numbers with your season on the line. The Jaguars are a bottom-five pressure and blitz rate team, a matchup that you’d assume Rodgers could pick apart, but I’d tread lightly.
Rodgers when not pressured, 2024 (among 23 qualified QBs):
- 2.2% interception rate (17th)
- 5.2 YAC per completion (19th)
- 92.5 passer rating (21st)
- 6.6 yards per attempt (23rd)
If you’re frustrated with Kyler Murray or fear the Denver matchup for Anthony Richardson, you have my blessing to roll the dice on Rodgers, but that’s about the only situation I’m going to green light. I prefer Drake Maye in a good spot against the Cardinals and while Jared Goff is in a tough matchup (vs. BUF), his floor is something that I find more appealing than the overall Rodgers profile.
Aidan O’Connell | LV (vs. ATL)
Outlook is cloudy, come back later.
I can’t be the only one who feels like this Aidan O’Connell health situation is a run of randomly assigned eight-ball quotes, but here we are. At this moment, his status isn’t clear, but what is pretty obvious is that, for your QB slot, it shouldn’t matter.
I’ll address the ramifications on his two pass catchers but a player with a 3.3% career touchdown rate operating at less than full strength without a stable run game just isn’t going to cut it for me.
Crazy, I know.
Anthony Richardson | IND (at DEN)
Anthony Richardson is still symbolic of a deer trying to walk on ice when it comes to his ability to throw the football. He’s 6 of 27 in his last two games when throwing 10+ yards downfield and 4 of 20 when pressured.
But in the same way that not all strong “real life” production pays off in fantasy, not all fantasy-viable stat lines reflect above-average “real life” QB play.
Richardson has been a top-10 performer at the position in two of his three games back in the saddle, offsetting the limitations as a passer with 39 attempts and three scores on the ground. His type of skill set can overcome any matchup, which is why I’d never outright dismiss him.
However, I’m very much looking for other options (Brock Purdy vs. LAR, Will Levis vs. CIN, and Kirk Cousins at LV, to name a few).
I went over Richardson’s limitations as a passer in specific spots, and those flaws figure to be magnified against this strong Broncos secondary. Denver ranks in the 80th percentile (or higher) in most pressure metrics, including the ability to produce heat with their front four.
Richardson truthers — to which I am one, and that is how I land on this note — might be inclined to ignore that fact, with the thought being that he can simply run away from pressure and pick up chunk gains with his legs.
In theory, that’s logical. In practice, not so much. You remember those 39 rush attempts I mentioned earlier? Just two of them have come when dropping back and feeling pressure.
The runs have been either schemed or one-and-done in terms of reads, and given Denver’s ability to penetrate, I expect Richardson to have a ton of resistance across the board.
If AR-5 is your starting QB and the waiver wire is a wasteland, you’re not making a reckless decision. That said, the aforementioned QBs aren’t trusted by most, but I feel good about plugging them in over Richardson in a week in which some seasons are on the line.
Baker Mayfield | TB (at LAC)
Baker Mayfield has a little Jameis Winston in his profile, and that makes him difficult to evaluate. On one hand, he completed eight of nine passes to six different players through the first two drives on Sunday against the Raiders. On the other, he was five-of-10 for the rest of the half with two of those five incompletions being intercepted.
For me, trying to nail down players like this is maddening. Yes, that’s what I get paid to do, but randomness comes into play for profiles like this more than most. What changed in that Vegas matchup after the first 10 minutes?
Not the weather. Not the quality of defense. Not the support of his offense. Literally nothing changed, and yet, his production fluctuated crazily.
That said, I tend to rank Mayfield based on the opponent. The Chargers are easily the least stingiest defense on short passes (4.7 yards per attempt, nearly a full yard below league average) and that puts us in a tough spot when you consider that, after throwing six deep touchdown passes in seven games to open the season, Mayfield has just one in six games since.
With both of these teams ranking at bottom-eight in pace, I don’t trust the quality or quantity in this spot. Rookies like Bo Nix and Drake Maye grade more favorably this week as do a trio of NFC North QBs that have battled fantasy inconsistencies of their own (Sam Darnold, Jordan Love, and Jared Goff).
Bo Nix | DEN (vs. IND)
The Bo Nix profile looks good when you look at the macro. The rookie has five top-10 finishes and has been a top-seven producer at the position in three of his past six games. The speed of the NFL hasn’t been overwhelming and he’s showing increased comfort in challenging defenses vertically (56% deep ball completion rate over his past three games, up from 37.5% previously).
A more micro approach, however, will raise some fantasy red flags. The most damning fact is that he has nine rushing yards on his resume over his past four games. Nix isn’t Lamar Jackson, but he was previously averaging 32.8 yards on the ground, and that is the sort of production that can lift him up the fantasy rankings. On top of the limited rushing percentage, he has failed to reach a 60% completion rate in consecutive games for the first time this season.
At the end of the day, you have to be aware of a wider range of outcomes. That said, I’m willing to gamble in this spot. The Colts rank 27th in yards per pass against and second in pace of play — in short, they allow opponents to be efficient and give them the ball back quickly.
I’ve got Nix penciled in as my QB10 this week coming out of his bye, ahead of Week 14 darling Sam Darnold.
Brock Purdy | SF (vs. LAR)
I was encouraged by what we got from Brock Purdy last week against the Bears in his first game since losing his RB1 and RB2, but the one-sided nature of that game certainly helped. When all was said and done, he completed 80% of his passes with multiple touchdowns and 13.0 yards per pass.
That might not be sustainable against a good high school defense, but it was good to see and resulted in his fifth top-six finish at the position for the season. I don’t have him ranked quite that high this week (my QB9), but there’s plenty to like in this spot and you should feel fine about plugging him in despite the injuries around him.
The efficiency last week was one thing, but I liked seeing his highest average depth of throw since September. The Rams rank 22nd in blitz rate, and if Purdy is given time to throw, I think we could see him push the envelope again this week against a defense that has struggled across the forward pass in every way imaginable:
- 26th in passer rating
- 29th in touchdown rate
- 30th in yards per completion
- 31st in yards per attempt
Purdy has more rushing yards and touchdowns this year than he previously had in his career. While those numbers on the projection front won’t jump off the screen at you, there is the potential for him to add some value with his legs, and that helps me rank him over a Jared Goff-type this week with confidence.
Bryce Young | CAR (vs. DAL)
Bryce Young has taken some steps forward over the past month.
Bryce Young still has a long way to go.
Both things can be, and are, true. Over the past month, he’s cleared 15 rushing yards in all four games, taken just five sacks, and made some nice reads down the field that have put his team in position to be competitive. Also over that stretch, he’s yet to complete over 60% of his passes in a game or thrown for multiple scores in a contest.
His interception last week in Philadelphia was awful on all accounts — a bad decision, a poor throw, and a lack of game awareness as it flipped the game at the end of the first half.
The Cowboys defense isn’t what we hoped it would be, but I thought they looked fine on Monday night and all of their pressure metrics have spiked since the return of Micah Parsons. Young might be a deep sleeper in 2025 — not in Week 15.
Caleb Williams | CHI (at MIN)
Caleb Williams has four top-six finishes on his rookie year resume and I think, entering the year, we would have taken that. The problem, however, is that he has only a pair of top-15 finishes since the huge Week 6 performance, something that is symbolic of the floor that he carries weekly.
Him getting Rome Odunze a pair of touchdowns last week was great to see for those of us holding long-term stock in this offense, though I’d caution against reading too much into it when it comes to value for the remainder of this season.
The rushing profile is nice (27+ yards on the ground in four straight), but the unwillingness to push the ball down field (7.0 aDOT or lower in four of his past five games) is a fantasy production suppressant. He was able to dominate the Vikings in the Week 12 meeting, but is a 149.1 passer rating against the blitz really something we can count on him reproducing?
I’m happy to bet on this aggressive defense adjusting their exotic calls and making Williams uncomfortable with far more regularity than the first game. If you’re trying to get creative in a DFS setting during the two-game Monday night slate, go for it — but in season-long leagues with zero teams on a bye, there’s no reason to take on this risk in my opinion.
C.J. Stroud | HOU (vs. MIA)
I was as guilty as anyone in assuming that the return of Nico Collins would return C.J. Stroud to elite form.
Wrongongong.
The man has one top-12 finish this season and it came back when the Raiders were a .500 football team (Week 4). Yeah, it’s been a minute. With just one multi-pass-TD game since mid-October and more interceptions (five) than touchdown passes (four) over the past month, there’s plenty of risk we have to account for in this profile.
The Dolphins are an average defense by pressure rate (15th), but they rarely actually get home (29th in sack rate), and that has allowed them to be gashed in consecutive weeks.
- Jordan Love (Week 13): 21-of-28, 274 yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions
- Aaron Rodgers (Week 14): 27-of-39, 339 yards, one touchdown, and zero interceptions
I think Stroud has a good chance to replicate those levels of success. His passer rating when out of the pocket this season is 29.6% higher than a season ago, a strength that figures to come into play given Miami’s defensive profile.
Both QBs in this game are locked inside of my top 10 this week, and I actually prefer Stroud to Tua Tagovailoa in what could be a very fantasy-friendly game where you’re starting all of your pieces.
Cooper Rush | DAL (at CAR)
Cooper Rush has failed to clear 195 passing yards on 30+ attempts in consecutive games, first against the Giants and on Monday night against the Bengals. He is the only QB to check both of those boxes against either of those defenses this season — miss me with the “can I start Rush over insert established QB” questions.
Rush hasn’t proven capable of leveraging strong matchups, and I see no reason to think that changes with a short work week.
Derek Carr | NO (vs. WAS)
Derek Carr (broken left hand) has officially been listed as “week-to-week” by the Saints, but his season appears to be over and I think we can operate under that assumption with New Orleans effectively being a game away from playoff elimination.
Carr still has two years remaining on his deal (though the team does have an out available to them this summer), making it important to note that, assuming his 2024 is over, he will have posted a triple-digit deep passer rating for the sixth time in his career. He doesn’t get the love he should for his touch on the long pass and that will likely be reflected when I am higher than you on Chris Olave this summer.
Desmond Ridder | LV (vs. ATL)
This season, 45 quarterbacks have thrown at least 40 passes this season. Within that data set, the Desmond Ridder rankings are … well, they are what you’d think.
- 40th in touchdown rate
- 41st in first down rate
- 42nd in yards per pass
- 44th in air yards per pass
- 45th in sack rate
Ridder is on the fringe of pushing my “I’d take any starting QB over a skill position player” logic when it comes to filling out my Offensive Player roster spot in Superflex settings should Aidan O’Connell be ruled out.
Drake Maye | NE (at ARI)
There’s a lot to like here, that much we know. Drake Maye’s athleticism creates highlights, but don’t overlook the fact that he has completed at least 80% of his non-pressured passes in three of his past four games. The Patriots seem to have found “their guy” for years to come, but let’s not put the cart before the horse.
For the season, Maye has one finish better than QB12 this season (Week 7). He’s averaging 5.6 fantasy points per game with his legs over his past six games, and that includes a game he left early — there certainly is some cheatcode potential in this profile.
Part of what makes an athletic QB dangerous is not what he does with his legs, but how he is defended due to the fear of his legs. Look at Anthony Richardson. Why has he been able to hit some home run pass plays this season?
Spoiler alert, it’s not because of his precision as a thrower. Whether you want to blame it on Maye directly or supporting cast limitations, I don’t really care — he’s not feared down the field right now. Through eight starts (nine appearances), he’s completed just nine-of-38 deep passes (23.7%) with three interceptions.
The Cardinals are a top-12 defense in most long pass metrics this season. Until Maye starts to pick up production in that regard, I’m going to have a hard time trusting him with my fantasy season on the line.
You could do worse, but I prefer the floor that Brock Purdy and Jared Goff types offer, even if the theoretical ceiling isn’t quite the same.
Drew Lock | NYG (vs. BAL)
Drew Lock completed just 12 of 22 passes (54.5%) on balls thrown less than five yards downfield on Sunday against the Saints (the NFL average completion percentage on those passes this season is 76.5%).
Lock won’t start in Week 15, but long-term, there’s no need to go this deep in any fantasy format, and that includes DFS GPPs where almost anything is on the table.
Geno Smith | SEA (vs. GB)
Geno Smith has completed 16 of 19 passes against the blitz during Seattle’s current four-game win streak (3 of 7 in losses before this run). That’s a nice trend to take into a game against a Packers defense that elected to heat up Jared Goff with a blitz on 32.6% of dropbacks, their highest rate of the season.
We’ll see if that level of aggression sustains in this spot and if Smith can continue to handle it with grace. Green Bay is coming off the mini-bye, and I don’t have much confidence in the creativity of Seattle’s offense, something that has me ranking their QB outside of my top 15 this weekend.
Smith has one finish better than QB20 since Week 7 despite plus volume. If Josh Jacobs can continue to dictate tempo, I’m not sure there are enough possessions for the Seahawks in order to make Smith a viable option in standard 1QB formats.
Jake Haener | NO (vs. WAS)
The Saints announced on Friday that Jake Haener will take over for Derek Carr this week, meaning he will lead this mash unit. Is the Washington matchup a positive one? It is, but we have no proof that Haener will be able to do so, especially when you consider the lack of firepower he has at his disposal.
We don’t have much in the way of professional data on Haener, though his ability to take the layup throws is something he has struggled with up to this point. On 20 career short attempts, the pride of Fresno State has completed just nine passes for 75 yards with zero scores.
That means he’s completing 45% of such attempts while averaging 3.8 yards per attempt for his career. For reference, the NFL averages are 73.4% and 5.6. The samples are too small to make sweeping assumptions, but they are also too negative to be even remotely interested in.
Jalen Hurts | PHI (vs. PIT)
Jalen Hurts might be the closest thing we have to inevitable in fantasy sports right now. He’s averaging 8.0 yards per pass and 10.2 fantasy points per game with his legs. His fantasy managers may not even realize that Dallas Goedert is banged up or that A.J. Brown is in the midst of some struggles.
The scary part here is that there might be more room to grow than there is to regress.
Jameis Winston | CLE (vs. KC)
Jameis Winston had one completion through the middle of October and is now the only quarterback with 40+ pass attempts in five games this season.
Never change, Jameis. Never change.
If you’re playing Winston this time of year, I admire your gumption. Either that, or you’re desperate, and there’s nothing wrong with that. It happens, and swinging for the fences is a logical approach if you believe your team is overmatched (it’s no different than an NBA team launching threes to embrace variance).
But I think you’re drawing dead in this spot. Twice a QB scored 20 fantasy points against the Chiefs this season and both of them cleared 11 points with their legs (Lamar Jackson in Week 1 and Josh Allen in Week 11). That’s not Winston’s path to upside. If the ceiling isn’t there, you’re taking on an awfully low floor in the name of fun.
Early weather projections are for some wind and some rain. Not overly prohibitive, but also not ideal, and you need to run as hot as the sun to get Winston to be a usable asset. I’d keep Winston rostered (Week 16 at Cincinnati), but I’d rather plug in current punching bag Kirk Cousins (at Raiders) or Anthony Richardson (at DEN) if he was cut loose ahead of his bye week.
Jared Goff | DET (vs. BUF)
Jared Goff threw “a” bad pass on Thursday night, and it was intercepted, but he was predictably efficient again (78.1% complete) in leading the offense that sits at the top of our Offensive+ power rankings.
This is as positive of a scoring environment as there is in the NFL today, which means that starting any Lions player any week is reasonable, if not suggested.
The Bills’ defense is good, there’s no denying that. Some would argue “great,” and I’d listen. But good offense beats good defense in the year 2024, and with two damning boxes checked, I’m not hesitating to play Goff this week with extended rest.
First is the obvious. This game will take place in the great state of Detroit, and that alone demands our attention. Since 2021, Goff has owned the top home-game passer rating (106.9 over the 32-game sample) in the sport, fueled by a 6.4% touchdown rate.
During his nearly four-year stint as the Lions’ shot-caller, Goff has cleared 26 fantasy points on eight occasions:
- Week 11, 2024 vs. Jaguars: 34.6 fantasy points
- Week 4, 2022 vs. Seahawks: 33.2
- Week 15, 2023 vs. Broncos: 31.1
- Week 1, 2021 vs. 49ers: 28.9
- Week 5, 2023 vs. Panthers: 27.4
- Week 4, 2024 vs. Seahawks: 26.2
- Week 14, 2022 vs. Vikings: 26.1
- Week 2, 2022 vs. Commanders: 26
Notice anything? Yep, each one of them came in front of the Detroit faithful. Each of those games also saw at least 57 total points scored — a home game where the offense is pushed to the core. Could that be the case in this spot?
The second is how the Bills play. They refuse to bring heat, instead banking on their talented secondary to hold up in coverage. For the most part, that strategy has held up this season. However, I think, after 14 weeks, we’ve established that the Lions aren’t like “most” matchups.
Goff’s passer rating when not blitzed:
- 2019 (Rams): 86.5
- 2020 (Rams): 86.6
- 2021 (Lions): 87.3
- 2022 (Lions): 95.7
- 2023 (Lions): 97.0
- 2024 (Lions): 101.8
Whether you think that is a Goff stat or is more reflective of the talent around him, I really don’t care. The fact of the matter is that when he’s comfortable, he’s dicing up opponents. And with Josh Allen likely to apply game pressure the way the Packers did on Thursday night, it’s not hard to rank Goff among the best pocket passers for the week.
Maybe the best among them?
Jayden Daniels | WAS (at NO)
Jayden Daniels came out of the gate flying this season, and yet, it wouldn’t be hard to argue that he was playing his best football ahead of the Week 14 bye. I guess you could nitpick “best,” but when it comes to fantasy production, the results are real and spectacular.
PPR Points, Weeks 12-13:
- Saquon Barkley: 65.9
- Daniels: 58.0
- Jerry Jeudy: 55.0
- Bucky Irving: 54.7
- Tua Tagovailoa: 53.7
- Caleb Williams: 53.0
Is it possible that I would have laughed in your face if you presented that list to me in August and said it was a two-week leaderboard for a very impactful two-week stretch? I’m not saying no, such is the nature of this business.
Daniels had a down month in terms of fantasy production, but he’s back at just the right time for this matchup that scares no one these days. I’m not saying he becomes the first player in NFL history to string together three straight games with at least 25 completions, multiple TD passes, and a rushing score … but I’m not saying he won’t.
Daniels is the Offensive Rookie of the Year and deserves to be locked into starting lineups across the board — from six-team leagues to DFS contests.
Joe Burrow | CIN (at TEN)
Joe Burrow is having a career year (pace: 4,846 yards and 43 TDs), and just about nothing can slow him down at this point as the offense is scheming around his strengths. Tee Higgins and Mike Gesicki have plenty of room to be more involved, giving Burrow plenty of production outs should a team unearth a way to slow Ja’Marr Chase.
The counting numbers for the Titans’ defense look good, but that’s the result of limited volume. Through 14 weeks, they allow touchdown passes at the 10th highest rate in the league, and we know that this Bengals’ offense is going to challenge the end zone through the air.
Jordan Love | GB (at SEA)
Jordan Love has posted a passer rating north of 105 in four straight games. That might give the Packers the potential to win a few playoff games, but real-life efficiency doesn’t always mean paying the fantasy bills, which is the situation we find ourselves in routinely here.
Love hasn’t finished a week as a top-10 signal-caller since Week 6 and has been a disappointment (six touchdown passes in his past six games). The rushing potential was flashed a little bit last week (season-high 23 rushing yards), but with a TD/INT rate outside of the red zone that ranks alongside luminaries like Will Levis and Daniel Jones, the path to consistent value just isn’t there.
The matchup off of the mini-bye against the Seahawks doesn’t scare me too much. But with Josh Jacobs sucking up all of the scoring equity, Love needs to be close to flawless to churn out a profit, and that’s a dangerous line to walk for a risk-taking profile like this.
Josh Allen | BUF (at DET)
Josh Allen stamped his MVP ticket last week with the historic six-touchdown performance, and now he gets a chance to solidify the Bills as legitimate Super Bowl threats.
In our game, Allen is exactly as good as you think he is. Last week was his second finish this season as the top-scoring QB of the week, his fifth top-five finish, and eighth in the top 10.
The Bills have asked Allen to quicken his decision-making (65.4% fast pass rate, easily a career high), and it’s opened up more avenues to production.
Like with Hurts, you could easily argue that there is room to grow. Dalton Kincaid and Keon Coleman have both been on the shelf recently and will offer a depth in support that he’s thriving without.
Justin Herbert | LAC (vs. TB)
Justin Herbert has dropped back on 121 third downs — none of his 104 passes on those plays have been intercepted (eight touchdowns). This highlights, to me, how valuable he is for the Chargers, even if his fantasy numbers aren’t jumping off the screen.
With Los Angeles overachieving based on expectations, you’d assume that their shot caller has more than five top-15 finishes and better than a QB7 peak.
Josh Allen and Joe Burrow need to put up elite fantasy numbers for their teams to succeed — that’s simply not true for Herbert, and I don’t see that changing over the final month.
Kirk Cousins | ATL (at LV)
Kirk Cousins is the first starting QB with zero passing touchdowns and 8+ interceptions in a four-game span since Ben Roethlisberger from 2005-06. He hasn’t been a top-20 producer at the position in any of those games, something that is hard to do when you consider the volume of byes over those weeks.
There’s no reason to bet on this profile at the moment. If you want to leverage overall panic in this offense and get a piece of the pie facing off against a vulnerable Raiders defense, I fully support it. But asking Cousins to get you through to the next round of a redraft postseason is taking on far more risk than is necessary in Week 15.
Kyler Murray | ARI (vs. NE)
During this three-game losing streak, Kyler Murray has completed just 9 of 30 pressured passes with zero touchdowns and five interceptions. With his rushing numbers trending down, those passing numbers are alarming, even more so when you consider this matchup.
The Patriots, on the whole, are not overly aggressive, but we’ve seen them ramp things up in specific spots, and this could be such a situation.
Four games with at least a 40% blitz rate
Five games with a pressure rate of at least 33.3%
It’s been a coin toss this season if Murray will finish as a QB1 (five such finishes). This week, I have him on the wrong side of that equation, opting to rank his opposing number in this game above him.
Lamar Jackson | BAL (at NYG)
I’d have to work hard to sell you on being skeptical of Lamar Jackson in any spot. Maybe next week (Saturday vs. Pittsburgh) will be the time to make that case, but for the here and now, there should be zero hesitation in getting as much exposure to Jackson as humanly possible.
I assume that there will be game-script concerns, with the thought being that the Ravens could pound Derrick Henry 30 times and be on their way. I don’t doubt that is possible, but Baltimore is plenty confident in what it can do on the ground.
Why not use the Week 14 bye to hone the passing game and this soft landing spot as a way to test some new things out in preparation for a long playoff run?
That, of course, is speculation on my part, but we did see it last season. Following the Week 13 bye, Baltimore posted their highest pass rate of the season in Week 14. Part of that was due to a shootout, but it was also the Ravens’ third-highest pass rate when the game was within a single score.
The Giants rank in the bottom third of the league in terms of creating pressure when blitzing, and if they can’t make Jackson sweat, he could single-handedly win your matchup for you.
Jackson’s passing production when not pressured:
- 2021: 90.4 passer rating, 69.1% completion percentage, and 1.1 TD-to-INT
- 2022: 102.3 passer rating, 70.2% completion percentage, and 2.6 TD-to-INT
- 2023: 105.9 passer rating, 73.8% completion percentage, and 2.8 TD-to-INT
- 2024: 125.6 passer rating, 75% completion percentage, and 6.7 TD-to-INT
Jackson has been a top-six producer at the position 10 times this season, and there’s no reason to think he doesn’t offer up his seventh such performance in his past eight games this weekend.
Mac Jones | JAX (vs. NYJ)
Mac Jones doesn’t require your attention. It was nice to see him force feed Brian Thomas in the second half of Week 13, and at the end of the day, that’s how he will be judged — by his ability to support his rookie receiver and not his individual fantasy production.
Jones threw a pair of touchdown passes against the Texans in Week 13, but his other 91 passes this season have resulted in zero scores and five picks.
Matthew Stafford | LAR (at SF)
Matthew Stafford was part of the fun shootout with Josh Allen last week and now has posted four top-10 finishes in his past seven starts. It’s tough for a statue QB to make a living in our fantasy world, and I worry that the 49ers’ familiarity with him combined with a low blitz rate could leave you wanting more if you elect to chase the fireworks from last week.
The risk, in my opinion, simply outweighs the reward. The 29th-ranked blitz team is going to sit back and make this a low possession game — not the ideal game environment.
Stafford has one game this season with 20+ completions and 3+ passing scores. It came against a Vikings defense that is 180 degrees different than what he’s going to face on Thursday night.
I’m betting that you can do better this week.
Patrick Mahomes | KC (at CLE)
Including the playoffs, Patrick Mahomes (127 career starts, 10 such wins) now has more victories when his team scores fewer than 20 points than Aaron Rodgers (258, nine such wins). That’s not so much a fantasy stat as it is proof that this team doesn’t need their All-Pro quarterback to put up All-Pro numbers.
Not yet anyway.
Talk to me in mid-January, and we’ll see where things stand, but with Isiah Pacheco taking control of this backfield last week and the ticking time bomb that is Jameis Winston, who’s to say that the plan this week isn’t “sustain drives and let Cleveland implode against our strong defense”?
Mahomes has only a pair of top-10 finishes this season, and I don’t think he adds to that total here. There are three NFC North and four AFC East QBs I’d rather click into my fantasy lineup this week than the man who might well be the best to ever do it.
What a world.
Russell Wilson | PIT (at PHI)
I thought Russell Wilson showed fine for himself last week without George Pickens, notching his fourth multi-pass TD game of the season, but I’m not the least bit confident that he can prove worthy of our trust in this spot should his WR1 be at anything less than full strength.
Wilson’s yards per attempt were 27.4% lower last week than his season average. And with the Eagles posting the fourth-lowest YAC per completion this season, I have a hard time thinking that 200 yards or multiple touchdowns is in the cards for the veteran QB this week.
Like Mahomes and the Chiefs, this team doesn’t need fantasy-friendly QB numbers to win ball games. The less Wilson does in this game, the better I think Pittsburgh’s chances are of pulling off the upset, and I expect Mike Tomlin to share that line of thought.
Sam Darnold | MIN (vs. CHI)
Sam Darnold is coming off of the best game of his career and has been a top-12 fantasy quarterback eight times this season, including in each of his past four games.
He’s been nothing short of phenomenal, and while I want to bet against him, there’s nothing supporting doing so. He’s been exceptional against pressure (13.0 yards per attempt over his past four games with five touchdowns and zero picks), and that’s the calling card of this Bears defense.
In Week 12, Darnold completed 8 of 13 pressured attempts against this unit, and that was with Chicago successfully shutting down Justin Jefferson. Darnold is my QB11 this week and a part of a tier that ranges up to QB8. He’s the most reliable fantasy quarterback in this division right now, a sentence you would have never been able to sell me on three short months ago.
Tommy DeVito | NYG (vs. BAL)
Tommy DeVito has missed out on consecutive starts, partly due to a forearm injury. He’ll get the start in Week 15 due to Drew Lock’s injury, but it shouldn’t matter to you in any situation, whether this week or long-term.
You’d need to sell me on a high-volume projection for an inefficient DeVito to get him ranked as a QB2 for me, and I’m telling you right now that you will be unable to do that in this matchup. DeVito doesn’t have a touchdown toss in four straight appearances (83 pass attempts) — he’d have to really overachieve to be of use, even in two-QB formats.
Tua Tagovailoa | MIA (at HOU)
It’s all happening at the perfect time. Tua Tagovailoa has been a top-10 QB in four straight games (top-five finishes in two of those weeks) and is rounding into the form that we drafted him for this summer.
Last week’s game plan was a concentrated one from the jump and that’s exactly what we want. In the first half against the Jets, Tagovailoa funneled 122 of his 165 passing yards (73.9%) to Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle.
Chef’s kiss.
The Jonnu Smith production came in overtime and with three legitimate pass catchers to compliment the explosive backfield, this is an offense set to peak at the perfect time for us. The Texans allow the fourth-most YAC yards per short completion this season — look for Miami to pick at that scab with bubble screens and, eventually, double moves that open up downfield potential.
I have Tagovailoa ranked as my QB7 — I’m more worried about being too low than too high.
Will Levis | TEN (vs. CIN)
Will Levis again hurt his throwing shoulder on Sunday. While he was able to ultimately return, this season isn’t going anywhere, and that puts his status in question should anything flare up during the work week.
What is Levis but a higher-pedigree Cooper Rush with a lifetime mayonnaise deal? With a similar size profile, he has a slightly higher career passer rating and a slightly lower TD/INT rate. In a vacuum, maybe I take Levis, but the point remains that they aren’t all that different.
- Rush vs. Bengals, Week 14: 31 passes, 183 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception
Any issues with that general projection for Levis? That was QB18 last week, a week in which Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson, Drake Maye, and Bo Nix were sitting at home on a bye.
I understand the idea of wanting to stream in this direction if we get a clean bill of health mid-week, but I think absorbing more risk than reward potential.