Week 13 is here, and if you’re reading this, you’re in the playoffs, fighting for a chance to make the playoffs, or you’re already eliminated but are being a good league mate and ensuring you give it your all until the playoffs begin.
As we all know, there will be plenty of questions about who to start and who to sit in your fantasy football lineups. Below, we’ve provided analysis for every fantasy-relevant quarterback in every game this weekend.
If you’re looking for all positions, head to our Week 13 Fantasy Football Start-Sit Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Aaron Rodgers | NYJ (vs. SEA)
I’m about as out on the Seahawks’ defense as anyone, and even I can’t get there with recommending Aaron Rodgers as a fantasy starter this weekend.
Seattle struggles against the deep pass (see Wilson, Garrett), but my concern is with Rodgers having the needed time to exploit that weakness. The Seahawks rank in the 80th percentile when it comes to creating pressure without the benefit of a blitz, a situation in which Rodgers has struggled this season.
Over his past four games, the future Hall of Famer has completed just six of his 20 passes in such spots (pressured without a blitz) for 58 yards. That’s not going to get it done, and that factors prominently into him being twice as likely this season to finish as the QB20 or worse than the QB10 or better.
If Rodgers looks good this weekend, we can have a streaming discussion next week in Miami, but without any teams on a bye, there’s no reason to take on this sort of risk.
Anthony Richardson | IND (at NE)
One week after showing some growth, Anthony Richardson was back to Anthony Richardson-ing against the Lions on Sunday.
Yes, he recorded 10+ carries for the third time in four games, but the forward baby steps from Week 11 as a passer disappeared. Against Detroit, he completed just 11 of 28 passes (39.3%) with zero touchdowns. He now has as many games this season with 25+ attempts and a sub-40% completion rate as the rest of the NFL (two) — but wait, there’s more.
He threw 13 passes under pressure on Sunday — he completed one of them (nine yards). You read that right. He was 9-of-12 for 145 yards in such spots against the Jets in Week 11, and then, poof, that growth and maturity vanished.
The Patriots aren’t an overly aggressive bunch on the defensive end, though they have brought the heat when they felt the matchup asked for it (four games this season with a blitz rate of at least 40%). I’m expecting them to label this as such a situation, and while Richardson’s profile always comes with the upside, the floor is too low to risk this time of year with 31 other signal callers to choose from.
Baker Mayfield | TB (at CAR)
How long is the list of quarterbacks that are more fun to watch when they are feeling themselves than Baker Mayfield? Heck, is it even a list? It might be a single name (Patrick Mahomes gets my vote, with Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson also in this conversation).
Sadly, “fun” doesn’t always mean massive fantasy numbers. His Superman dive into the end zone last week against the Giants helped his Week 12 bottom line, but with just one touchdown toss over his past two games (59 attempts), the floor is worrisome.
That said, this is obviously a great matchup, and the accuracy that Mayfield has shown (at least 74% completion in three of his past four games) allows him to sneak into the backend of my QB1 rankings this week, checking in ahead of Jared Goff and Patrick Mahomes.
Bo Nix | DEN (vs. CLE)
Bo Nix has three straight games with multiple passing touchdowns and 30 pass attempts with zero interceptions. No rookie has ever done it in four straight games (Daniel Jones and Lamar Jackson authored such games against the Browns this season).
Could this be a historic spot for the rookie? Could Nix take over the Rookie of the Year betting board?
Nix has seven QB1 finishes this season and has been at his best when his best is needed — 12 completions on 14 red-zone pass attempts over the past three weeks (six touchdowns).
This high-pressure defense gives me some concerns, which is why I’ve cautiously ranked Nix as my QB15 this week, a respectable ranking in a matchup that isn’t great and with all 32 teams in action.
Brandon Allen | SF (at BUF)
It took Brandon Allen 29 passes to threaten 200 yards through the air last week in Lambeau. He was able to spread out his targets, but when throwing to teammates not named George Kittle, Allen was able to complete just 55% of his passes, a rate that just isn’t going to cut it.
If Allen draws another start, you don’t need to worry about it when it comes to the QB position. His connection with Kittle was strong enough to keep the veteran TE ranked top seven regardless of who is under center.
The value of Deebo Samuel Sr. would be the one to watch, but I’m ranking things as if Brock Purdy will be back this week and get San Francisco’s offense back on track with its season hanging in the balance.
Brock Purdy | SF (at BUF)
Brock Purdy (right shoulder) sat out last week against the Packers. Advanced testing showed no structural damage, leading to cautious optimism that he’ll return to the lineup this week. Should that be the case, I think there’s a possibility Purdy gives us a borderline QB1 performance.
The Bills excel at shutting down opponents from big perimeter plays, but this 49ers offense is happy to focus on the shorter passing game and let their athletes work in space.
Purdy has completed 71.9% of his passes since Christian McCaffrey returned to the field, and I don’t think that’s an accident. He has a quartet of top-six finishes this season, thanks in part to four rushing scores over his past four games.
No, he’s not Lamar Jackson. He’s not even Daniel Jones when it comes to athleticism, but Purdy is mobile enough to raise his fantasy floor, which I think will help this week against a patient Buffalo defense.
If we get a clean bill of health entering the weekend, Purdy will move inside of my top 15 quarterbacks.
Bryce Young | CAR (vs. TB)
Bryce Young has looked better of late, and I think part of it is Carolina giving him the potential to do so. Against the Chiefs last week, the Panthers opened with three passes on their first four plays, a run of plays that saw their second-year QB complete passes to three different players.
It’s true that Young has finished inside the top 15 in two of his past three starts and that the Buccaneers defense has been vulnerable. However, starting him in a week with 31 other teams in action is borderline crazy.
It’s perfectly okay to say you’re encouraged by Young’s recent play while still not wanting to invest a penny in him this week — that’s where I stand.
C.J. Stroud | HOU (at JAX)
C.J. Stroud was QB7 twice in September and seemed to be in position to light the fantasy world on fire. Those hopes have since been extinguished as he hasn’t produced a top-12 week since the strong start.
I thought he left a few plays on the field last week and, for a second consecutive game, he had a long Nico Collins touchdown taken off the board. The breakout seems to be more of a matter of “when” and not “if,” so why not this spot?
The Jaguars own the seventh-worst red zone defense in the league and the Texans are averaging 17.6% more red zone trips per game since Collins’ return than through 10 weeks. Stroud currently sits at QB7 in my Week 13 rankings.
Derek Carr | NO (vs. LAR)
Derek Carr is on a career pace in passer rating, yards per pass, and touchdown rate. Thanks to splash plays from Marquez Valdes-Scantling, his counting numbers have looked great over the past two games:
- 52 pass attempts
- 37 completions
- 517 passing yards
- Four touchdowns
- Zero interceptions
The injuries to the receiver room haven’t impacted Carr in a big way lately, but is that sustainable? The Rams are a top-five pressure defense, and if that makes stretching the field difficult, I’m not sure there’s much of a path to top-15 numbers without versatility or upside. That is why I’m looking elsewhere in all one-QB leagues and DFS contests, even on the fast track.
Drake Maye | NE (vs. IND)
Drake Maye shows flashes of potential seemingly every week, but stringing together 60 strong minutes has proven to be a tough ask. The rookie hasn’t finished better than QB15 since Week 7 and that’s the general range in which I have him ranked for this home game.
The Colts own the second-lowest deep touchdown rate allowed (1.3% of attempts) while posting the sixth-highest interception rate on such passes. If they aren’t vulnerable down the field on Sunday, I’m having a hard time thinking that Maye dinks and dunks his way to viability.
You might be able to talk me into Maye as a viable streaming option in Week 15 (at Arizona after the bye week), but I’ll pass for Week 13.
Geno Smith | SEA (at NYJ)
Geno Smith has one passing touchdown over his past two games (63 attempts) and has only two multi-pass TD efforts this season. He’s been sacked 16 times in his past three games, and we’ve seen what pressure can do to his decision-making (end-zone interception last week being the latest example).
New York opponents average the seventh-fewest drives per game, and this defense owns an above-average success rate. In my eyes, Smith is a “play in the perfect spot” fantasy quarterback, but I simply don’t view this as that.
Jalen Hurts | PHI (at BAL)
Last week was the Saquon Barkley show, and yet, Jalen Hurts still manages to run 12 times and average 8.1 yards per pass attempt. Hurts is having a remarkable season, and this is as good a spot as any for him to flash his upside, with the Ravens boasting an elite run defense and a vulnerable secondary.
The primary knock on Hurts is a lack of volume (he hasn’t thrown 30 passes in a game since September), and that’s plenty fair. However, I don’t think that’ll be an issue this week with plenty of fire power on the other end to push him.
Hurts is my top-ranked QB of the week, and I feel good about it.
Jameis Winston | CLE (at DEN)
Even in the snowy conditions and against an elite defense, Jameis Winston continued to inch up his in-pocket completion percentage on Thursday night against the Steelers (58.1% in Week 9, 61.9% in Week 11, and 63.6% in Week 12).
The exciting plays are fun, but if Winston is improving his production in these on-script spots, we might be onto something. The problem, of course, is the schedule. I’m not going to have him ranked as a fantasy starter in any of the next three weeks, and that includes Week 14’s rematch with Pittsburgh, a week in which six teams have their bye.
With the scheduling being what it is and Winston’s mobility limited at best, he’s going to need to be close to perfect to return top-15 numbers. I don’t see that happening (3-of-11 passing in the red zone in November), and that means that I’ll be enjoying the Winston experience from a distance as opposed to trusting him with the fate of my fantasy season in his hands.
Jayden Daniels | WAS (vs. TEN)
Are the ribs bothering Jayden Daniels? Since getting banged up in Week 7, he’s completing just 31.6% of passes when under duress (Weeks 1-6: 57.1%). Those splits give me pause when evaluating the rest of the season as a whole, but not this week.
The Titans are a bottom-10 defense in both blitz and pressure rate. They don’t view their ability to get to the quarterback as a strength, and I think that’s a blessing for Daniels’ managers.
As spotty as the rookie’s play has been of late, he’s shown up when his team has needed him, even if the defense has ultimately failed to hold up their end of the bargain. Daniels completed all seven of his passes on a late drive last week to give Washington a chance at the chaos that occurred.
Daniels posted his eighth QB1 finish last week, and I saw enough from his mobility wise to think that we get No. 9 in this spot.
Joe Burrow | CIN (vs. PIT)
If you remove the weird Week 1 loss to the Patriots, Joe Burrow’s 17-game pace is 4,869 passing yards, 46 touchdowns, and seven interceptions (2011 MVP Aaron Rodgers: 4,643 yards, 45 touchdowns, and six interceptions).
Burrow has strung together three straight top-two finishes (in those games: 1,035 passing yards with 12 touchdowns and just one interception), and while projecting that level of success against an elite defense that gets the benefit of the mini-bye, there’s no way to drop him outside of the top six at the position this week.
Josh Allen | BUF (vs. SF)
Why is Josh Allen’s interception rate (1.5%) trending toward a career low? His quick pass rate sits at 67%, easily a career-high (2023: 58.4%). I find that to be an interesting approach in this matchup, specifically against a defense that blitzes at the third-lowest rate in the league.
Will Allen hold the ball longer and thus create splash-play opportunities? Will San Francisco sit in coverage and attempt to jump those quick hitters?
The nerd in me will be on full display when watching this game, but from a fantasy lineup setting scope, there’s nothing to act on. Allen has a rushing touchdown or multiple passing touchdowns in six straight contests, finishing as a top-10 signal-caller in five of those games. I don’t think this will be a peak Allen performance, but I find it highly unlikely that you lose your Week 13 matchup because you put your trust in the MVP front-runner.
Justin Herbert | LAC (at ATL)
Monday night was another underwhelming performance as a passer for Justin Herbert in what was a perfect matchup for a second straight week. In two games against the struggling secondaries of the AFC North, he completed just 52.8% of his passes with two scores on 72 attempts.
I want to give him the benefit of the doubt and blame his pass catchers. The Chargers have averaged 1.9 drops per game during the Herbert era, the fifth most over that stretch.That excuse would be completely justifiable, but at some point, a carpenter can’t continue to blame his tools.
Even so, he’s been able to keep the fantasy ship above board with 6.5+ fantasy points on the ground in three straight contests, versatility that was on display early against the Ravens (2/2 passing for 35 yards with nine rushing yards and a touchdown on the opening drive).
At the end of the day, we are talking about a team trending toward the playoffs that is counting more now than ever on its franchise QB, and that’s more than enough for me to trust him in our game. The last time we saw this Atlanta defense, they allowed Bo Nix to post a 145.0 passer rating (our third best QB+ performance of the week). While a bye week to prepare for a team on short rest is a nice advantage, it’s not even close to preventing me from ranking Herbert inside my top-10 this week.
Kirk Cousins | ATL (vs. LAC)
Atlanta’s recent struggles have been the result of Kirk Cousins not living up to expectations. In Weeks 10-11, he completed just 60.4% of his passes with zero scores and two interceptions when not blitzed (Weeks 8-9: 82.1% with six touchdowns and zero interceptions).
That makes him a tough sell coming out of the bye against a Chargers defense that ranks in the bottom 10 in blitz rate and the top five in success rate when bringing the heat. They are a defense content to sit back and choose their spots wisely. I mentioned Cousins’ downward trending numbers when not blitzed, and his rates look even worse in those two contests when pressured:
- 23 dropbacks
- 17 attempts
- Eight completions
- 109 yards
- Zero touchdowns
- Two interceptions
I think there will be utility for Cousins coming down the stretch this season, I just think it starts next week (Weeks 14-17: Vikings, Raiders, Giants, and Commanders). He’s failed to finish better than QB15 in three straight games (and in five of his past six), struggles that I think have a better chance at continuing on Sunday than Cousins punishing you for not trusting him significantly.
Kyler Murray | ARI (at MIN)
Kyler Murray’s fantasy managers have every right to be frustrated, and sadly, I’m not sure things turn around in this spot. Over his past three games, Murray has one touchdown pass on 81 pass attempts, and while he punched in two scores with his legs against the Jets, the yardage totals on the ground have underwhelmed lately as well (36 rushing yards in those three games).
The Vikings are good at disguising what they are doing on the defensive end, though their desires are well known — they want to speed their opponent up and create discomfort. Murray hasn’t faced many defenses like that this season, but in his two games against above-average blitz rate defenses, he’s finished as the QB17 and QB23. In those games, he totaled just 349 passing yards, two touchdowns, and 48 rushing yards.
We were hoping for games like that, not an eight-quarter stretch. The versatility of this player and the desperation of the situation create a path to fantasy goodness, but I’d rather play more pocket-oriented players this week in good matchups (Russell Wilson at Cincinnati or Baker Mayfield at Carolina) than roll the dice on Murray (three top-five finishes this season but also four weeks checking in outside of the top 20).
Lamar Jackson | BAL (vs. PHI)
Lamar Jackson now has eight straight games with a 20-yard rush or a 72% completion rate, a level of versatility that comfortably lands him in the tier of elite quarterbacks, if not sitting atop the position.
The Derrick Henry factor hasn’t limited his fantasy appeal in the least and I’d argue that it helps him. I don’t think the 10-yard sprint to the corner of the end zone on Monday night happens nearly as easily a season ago, but with Henry demanding high levels of attention on the interior, it almost seems too easy for this offense at times.
The Eagles defense is clearly trending in the right direction, and that puts them on the Super Bowl radar, but they haven’t faced a fully functional mobile quarterback (Daniel Jones doesn’t count and Jayden Daniels was battling an injury) and Jackson is matchup proof as it is – he’s an elite option across the board, including the DFS main slate.
Mac Jones | JAX (vs. HOU)
This is a lost season for the Jaguars, and without Mac Jones being labeled as the long-term solution, there’s no reason to think that Jacksonville extends him in a way that would be meaningful for our game.
Jones hasn’t been a top-25 quarterback in either of his starts this season — the only fantasy impact is his ability (or inability) to support two pass catchers who we are starting. Can he do that (249 passing yards on 51 attempts over the past two games)? I’m worried. Keep reading, and you’ll see where I stand on both Brian Thomas Jr. and Evan Engram.
Matthew Stafford | LAR (at NO)
Hand up if you thought this leaderboard would ever be symbolic of the top scorers at the QB position over a two-week stretch:
Tua Tagovailoa: 52 points
Bo Nix: 48.2 points
Matthew Stafford: 47 points
Jared Goff: 45.3 points
Sam Darnold: 44.7 points
Yeah, me neither.
Forget getting the entire list right, I’m not sure I would have gotten a single one of those names correct. Stafford has been a top-10 signal caller in three of his past five games and has looked the part of a stable fantasy option since getting his two receivers back to full strength.
I tend to target Stafford against high-blitz teams when looking for true ceiling performances, as those are the matchups where his elite connection with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua can beat single coverage on a regular basis. That’s not the position we find ourselves in this week (NO: 25th in blitz rate), and if the Saints can control the clock like they aim to do, I worry that Stafford doesn’t throw enough passes to produce top-15 numbers in this spot.
Russell Wilson | PIT (at CIN)
The Russell Wilson “moon balls” get a lot of attention, and they are fun, but over 39% of his attempts in all five of his starts have traveled less than five yards downfield (season rate: 45%), a style of play that introduces an awfully low floor for a veteran without elite support or high-end rushing abilities.
Wilson has been held under 14 fantasy points in three of his past four games, and he’s only a bomb or two away from the bottom completely falling out.
Those are long-term concerns. I’m not comfortable entering the fantasy playoffs banking on Wilson, but I’m just fine going into Week 13 with that being the case. This season, 10.1% of deep passes thrown against the Bengals result in a touchdown, and if Wilson can hit on one (maybe even two?), he’s going to have a chance to finish as a QB1 this week, even with all 32 teams in action.
I suspect he’ll be a popular DFS play this week, and I don’t think that’s necessarily wrong — just be careful in assuming that any production put up this weekend is predictive of what to do as we navigate December.
Sam Darnold | MIN (vs. ARI)
Sam Darnold has been a QB1 in three of his past four starts and a top-15 signal-caller in five of his past six. I was encouraged by his willingness to challenge the Bears last week with players not named Justin Jefferson — if he can spread the ball around, that is how he can continue to offer a nice fantasy floor.
The increased health of T.J. Hockenson makes Darnold a viable option in deeper leagues, though I’m still approaching this profile with caution. His efficiency has fallen off a cliff lately (under 65% completion rate in three straight games after reaching at least 72% in three consecutive games), and while the long scores have bailed him out, that’s a dangerous way to live.
I’d rather play Bo Nix (vs. CLE) or Jared Goff (vs. CHI) when it comes to low-end QB1s this week.
Trevor Lawrence | JAX (vs. HOU)
Trevor Lawrence has returned to practice after missing two games with a shoulder injury and while he is a recognizable name, there’s no reason for this to interest fantasy managers as we come down the stretch of 2023.
Joe Flacco and Andy Dalton are just two of the quarterbacks with a higher peak positional finish than Lawrence this season and with various injuries to his playmakers, I’m not confident that what we see post-injury is much different than what we saw prior.
With Brian Thomas as his primary weapon for most of his games this season, Lawrence has sacrificed some efficiency for deep shots (aDOT up 11% from last season), but he’s been unable to reach a ceiling performance as a result.
Perhaps the biggest flaw in his 2024 profile is the lack of rushing. Lawrence has one game this season with 20 yards on the ground and if he is going to be a glorified pocket passer, he’s going to have to be near perfect to work his way into the starting conversation in most fantasy leagues – not just this season, but for the foreseeable future.
Will Levis | TEN (at WAS)
Will Levis opened last week at Houston with 11 straight completions (177 yards and a touchdown), something that was good for dynasty managers to see.
He later added to his fantasy total by hitting Chig Okonkwo on a nine-yard pass that the athletic tight end turned into a 70-yard touchdown. If you’re simply looking at box scores, you’ll see two usable weeks from Levis in his three games since returning from injury — again, a nice step for him to take in Year 2.
Let’s not get carried away. This isn’t a player that one-QB-leaguers need to worry about. If he can put up big numbers this week, we can have the “Do I stream Will Levis against Jacksonville with Lamar Jackson on a bye?” conversation next week. I hope that comes through as that would be awfully helpful for all of us Jackson managers who refuse to roster a secondary QB.
Time will tell on that front — there’s nothing you need to do this weekend.