Deciding which quarterbacks to trust each week can be somewhat of a minefield, especially if you missed out on the top options. To help you make your fantasy football decisions, here are projections and start/sit advice for the quarterback position in Week 1 of the 2024 season.
After you’re done reading, check out my Week 1 fantasy start/sit for every top skill player in every game on this week’s slate.
The projections in this article are from PFN’s consensus projection system. To see the latest projections for every player, check out PFN’s Start/Sit tool.
Aaron Rodgers Week 1 Fantasy Advice
- Consensus Ranking: QB26
- Fantasy Points: 9.6
- Passing Yards: 121.7
- Passing TDs: 1.0
- Interceptions: 0.2
- Rushing Yards: 4.6
- Rushing TDs: 0.1
I’m not forcing the issue. If you spent a late-round pick on the four-time MVP as a way to bet on talent at a discount, that’s fine, but why swallow this level of risk with all 32 teams in action this week and an elite defense on the other sideline?
- Sept. 13, 2020
That was the last time Rodgers threw a touchdown in his season opener. His opposing number in Week 1 (Brock Purdy) couldn’t legally drink alcohol the last time it happened – it’s been a minute. That’s not to say that Rodgers can’t produce, but he is very much a structured QB who thrives when the non-verbal communication with his teammates is strong. That, naturally, takes time and reps.
The 49ers’ defense was the 10th best at generating pressure last season when not blitzing and top-five in terms of opponent yards per pass attempt and overall passer rating. I have projected both of these defenses as elite, and both offenses are penciled in as bottom-quartile units in terms of tempo.
If either of those assumptions is accurate, Rodgers is going to struggle to be viable in even the deepest of leagues – if both are, he’s at risk of hurting you even in a Superflex setting.
Anthony Richardson Week 1 Fantasy Advice
- Consensus Ranking: QB6
- Fantasy Points: 18.3
- Passing Yards: 147.5
- Passing TDs: 0.8
- Interceptions: 0.3
- Rushing Yards: 34.8
- Rushing TDs: 1.0
Richardson’s stock was on the rise all summer long, so if you landed him, you’re a believer and playing him regardless of the words I put on paper.
You’re going to be right more often than not, and I think you hit it big in Week 1.
I’m of the belief that Richardson will get his rushing numbers regardless of the matchup. NBA teams can’t stop Steph Curry from launching 3s, and MLB teams can’t routinely retire Aaron Judge. Richardson’s physical profile creates, in my opinion, a similar level of inevitably. With that as a baseline, any week in which he projects as an asset throwing the ball, he’s a true threat to pace the position in fantasy production.
Last season, the Texans allowed the fourth-most yards per pass attempt and saw 70.8% of opponent yards come through the air (the fifth-highest rate). The injury to Josh Downs is less than ideal, but we did see Richardson execute the scripted offense at a high level this offseason. If there was ever a game where this coaching staff could plan out a large percentage of the game plan, it’s Week 1, with all the time in the world to prepare.
He’s a Tier 1 QB this week. The Richardson experience will include valleys, but I think you’re loving life with a big number to start his second season.
Baker Mayfield Week 1 Fantasy Advice
- Consensus Ranking: QB18
- Fantasy Points: 13.4
- Passing Yards: 202.4
- Passing TDs: 1.2
- Interceptions: 0.7
- Rushing Yards: 8.5
- Rushing TDs: 0.1
I think a lot of what we saw from Mayfield last season is going to be difficult to repeat, though I think he’s a fine QB2 in this spot. Last season, Washington allowed an average passer rating of 105.7, not only the highest in the league but the worst defensive showing since the pandemic season of 2020.
The structure of this offense is a favorable one (viable pass-catching options and a versatile back that is more of an asset out of the backfield than between the tackles), and that is going to result in a few usable weeks – but I’m confident that you have one of the 17 quarterbacks I rank higher this week on your roster.
Bo Nix Week 1 Fantasy Advice
- Consensus Ranking: QB27
- Fantasy Points: 9.1
- Passing Yards: 140.2
- Passing TDs: 0.6
- Interceptions: 0.4
- Rushing Yards: 8.9
- Rushing TDs: 0.1
The rookie showed some versatility this preseason, and there is certainly a path to big weeks (I argued that he’d have the best single game by a rookie QB this season in my Fantasy Football Bold Predictions piece), but I think we can agree that we need to see it before betting on it.
First-year signal callers can struggle with the speed of the NFL game once the live bullets start firing; considering that the Seahawks were the sixth-best defense at generating pressure when blitzing, I expect this game to look exactly like you’d expect — a big play or two but more mistakes than chunk gains.
I think this game might be fun to watch — and more fun if you’re not invested heavily in either pass game.
Brock Purdy Week 1 Fantasy Advice
- Consensus Ranking: QB16
- Fantasy Points: 14.3
- Passing Yards: 189.8
- Passing TDs: 1.5
- Interceptions: 0.5
- Rushing Yards: 4.7
- Rushing TDs: 0.1
I’m as deep into the spreadsheets as anyone — so much so that my computer has begun prompting me to type “Brock Purdy” any time after the word regression.
It’s going to happen, that’s just math. To what degree we can debate, but let’s save those fighting words for another day. The Jets had the second-lowest blitz rate in the league last season (16.8%; league average: 26%) and that should allow Purdy time to diagnose the schemes coming his way.
I think he can be effective in this spot, I just don’t think the possession count is going to be nearly high enough to lock him into my top 12. It might sound crazy, but I’d rather Jared Goff on Sunday night against the Rams or even Trevor Lawrence *ducks* in a potential keep-up spot against the Dolphins.
Purdy should be serviceable this season, I just think he leaves you wanting more on Monday night.
Bryce Young Week 1 Fantasy Advice
- Consensus Ranking: QB30
- Fantasy Points: 8.0
- Passing Yards: 132.1
- Passing TDs: 0.5
- Interceptions: 0.5
- Rushing Yards: 11.6
- Rushing TDs: 0.1
I am here for the Year 2 Young emergence.
OK, that might be a bit strong. What I meant to say was that I expect him to prove that he isn’t nearly as bad as the underlying metrics of his rookie season suggest, but that he’s still a very long shot to matter in our game for anyone not playing in a Superflex league.
Dave Canales certainly has an impressive track record when it comes to squeezing production out of his signal-callers, and maybe he can do it to Young, a QB with plenty of room to grow. Heck, maybe we see signs of it this week against a Saints team that I like to put points on the board.
Under Canales:
- Geno Smith: 29 chances (completions + runs) in Week 1, 2022
- Baker Mayfield: 29 chances in Week 1, 2023
Young only had one game last season with 29+ chances, so from a sheer volume standpoint, I think he can overachieve the little that we have seen from him.
That said, let’s not get crazy for a QB who had one game with multiple passing scores after mid-October and is in a less-than-favorable spot.
C.J. Stroud Week 1 Fantasy Advice
- Consensus Ranking: QB5
- Fantasy Points: 19.9
- Passing Yards: 285.3
- Passing TDs: 1.6
- Interceptions: 0.3
- Rushing Yards: 11.6
- Rushing TDs: 0.2
During his magical rookie season, Stroud threw for 648 yards, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions against this vulnerable Colts defense. Indy simply had no answer for Nico Collins in those games (he turned 18 targets into 16 catches for 341 yards and a pair of touchdowns), and you could easily argue that they will be even more difficult to stop this time around.
Not only does Stroud now have Stefon Diggs, but he is also likely to have a more stable running game (in those two games, Houston’s leading rusher averaged just 2.4 yards per carry). Stroud also has a high likelihood of finding himself in a shootout environment.
Anthony Richardson was injured during the first meeting and missed the second, totaling just 10 pass attempts across the two contests. If the Colts are as potent on the offensive end as I believe they will be, this game could cruise into the 50s and produce two of the five highest-scoring signal callers for the week.
Caleb Williams Week 1 Fantasy Advice
- Consensus Ranking: QB13
- Fantasy Points: 15.1
- Passing Yards: 198.1
- Passing TDs: 0.8
- Interceptions: 0.5
- Rushing Yards: 30.6
- Rushing TDs: 0.2
Some high-pedigree options require time to find their groove at the professional level and some are named Caleb Williams.
The arm is what is praised and I have zero concerns about it. This is an offense that is going to work to highlight his strengths and with the Titans intercepting a league-low 1.1% of passes last season (league average: 2.3%), I’m comfortable with projecting a nice combination of aggression and volume in Williams’ debut.
Why I have him as my QB8 this week is a bet on versatility. The Titans ranked 28th in pressure rate last season and with a trio of strong receivers, I have no concerns that Williams can produce top-12 numbers through the air. That’s encouraging, but what has me playing him over QBs that have some MVP steam behind them in Tua Tagovailoa, Joe Burrow, and Jordan Love is his ability to pick up yards on the ground.
Over the past 20 seasons, 11 rookie quarterbacks with first-round draft capital spent on them ran for over 25 yards in their first start – they averaged 19.3 fantasy points per game (for context, that would have been QB5 if extended for all of 2023).
That’s an impressive number at face value, but it’s even better when you consider that some of the quarterbacks in that sample (Christian Ponder, Trey Lance, Daniel Jones, and Teddy Bridgewater) weren’t exactly swimming in the same pool as Williams in terms of projected career arc.
Dak Prescott Week 1 Fantasy Advice
- Consensus Ranking: QB17
- Fantasy Points: 13.8
- Passing Yards: 180.3
- Passing TDs: 1.5
- Interceptions: 0.6
- Rushing Yards: 8.9
- Rushing TDs: 0.1
America’s QB is coming off of a season in which he cleared 4,500 yards through the air with 36 touchdowns and a career-best 69.5% completion percentage. He was special last season, and the pass-centric offensive stylings are likely to return in 2024.
That said, this could be a tough spot. There’s no denying the talent on the defensive side of the ball in Cleveland, and Prescott’s shortcomings in such spots were glaring last season
- Against top-10 yards/play defenses: 13.6 FPPG, 6.4 yards per pass
- Otherwise: 22.2 FPPG, 8.0 yards per pass
I’m not saying that Prescott sinks your team outright, but as a member of a large tier, asking him to return QB1 value in the season opener is a little optimistic for me. He’s your starter, and you’re not playing a streaming option over him, but I’d temper expectations and avoid him in a DFS setting.
Daniel Jones Week 1 Fantasy Advice
- Consensus Ranking: QB23
- Fantasy Points: 10.5
- Passing Yards: 132.0
- Passing TDs: 0.5
- Interceptions: 0.4
- Rushing Yards: 24.4
- Rushing TDs: 0.2
For the time being, Jones has one job for fantasy managers and one job only – make Malik Nabers work.
I could tell you that Jones is fifth at the position in rushing yards since entering the league and, with a true WR1 on the roster, that profile is what fantasy managers draw up. But I think we’ve seen enough to really need proof of concept before putting Mr. Dimes anywhere near fantasy lineups.
It’s possible that Jones looks good through two weeks this season against two of the seven worst defenses from 2023 in terms of opponent passer rating. It doesn’t matter. We’ve seen sparks from him in the past, and the position is simply too deep to get sucked back in.
Derek Carr Week 1 Fantasy Advice
- Consensus Ranking: QB24
- Fantasy Points: 10.3
- Passing Yards: 164.7
- Passing TDs: 1.0
- Interceptions: 0.5
- Rushing Yards: 3.4
- Rushing TDs: 0.1
Ready for the time-to-overthink-it-with-these-100%-accurate-facts-that-are-too-good-to-be-true play of the week?
We are so back. Man, I love this game.
There is one matchup on the board this week that features an offense that was top-eight in preventing pressure on their quarterback facing a defense that was bottom-eight in generating pressure.
I’m unable to formulate that as a trivia question due to the structure of this article, but yes, it’s Carr and the Saints against the Panthers.
The Saints weren’t at full strength in the first meeting with the Panthers last season, and New Orleans had to ask for extra space on the injury report for their QB when these teams matched up for a second time last year, so I’m not reading too far into the underwhelming numbers of 2023 in this spot.
Instead, I’m focusing on what should be a clean pocket for Carr to operate from.
Last season, of 30 qualifiers, he ranked sixth in fantasy points per pass when not pressured and 23rd when feeling the heat. Now that I’ve sold you (maybe) that he can be efficient, let’s address the upside.
Over the past five seasons on passes thrown 15+ yards down the field, Carr has a …
- Higher passer rating (105.4) than Joe Burrow (102.6)
- Higher yards per attempt (13.2) than Patrick Mahomes (12.8)
- Higher TD rate (9.3%) than Aaron Rodgers (8.8%)
The quantity of deep throws is often the sticking point for fantasy managers, and while I’ll agree that is prohibitive most weeks, I’m not sure it will be in this spot with all offseason to prepare for a defense that ranked bottom-10 in touchdown-to-interception rate, passer rating, and yards per attempt when defending those passes.
Carr has had a 25+ fantasy point game in seven of 10 seasons, and in those games, his aDOT (average depth of target) was 16.7% above his career average.
I can’t rank him as a top-10 play due to a lack of upside on the ground and all 32 teams being in action, but given the quality of QB not available on the main DFS slate due to the loading up of prime-time games, I can pitch him as an interesting GPP play that you can double stack for cheap and still have a Jonathan Taylor/Tank Dell mini stack.
Deshaun Watson Week 1 Fantasy Advice
- Consensus Ranking: QB22
- Fantasy Points: 10.9
- Passing Yards: 135.1
- Passing TDs: 0.9
- Interceptions: 0.5
- Rushing Yards: 19.3
- Rushing TDs: 0.1
No team generated pressure more often than the Cowboys last season, and that hurts Watson’s ceiling case to open his 2024 season. Watson ranked 21st in fantasy points per pressured attempt last season, wedging him between Gardner Minshew II and Desmond Ridder in that metric.
That’s a problem, especially if Dallas controls the clock (third in time of possession last season). Watson’s profile carries upside due to his versatility, the pass-catching talent around him, and the backfield limitations. All of that said, you’re playing in a very deep league or getting too cute in DFS if you’re starting him this weekend, and that’s coming from someone with him pegged as a sleeper for the season as a whole.
Gardner Minshew II Week 1 Fantasy Advice
- Consensus Ranking: QB31
- Fantasy Points: 7.4
- Passing Yards: 109.3
- Passing TDs: 0.6
- Interceptions: 0.3
- Rushing Yards: 2.9
- Rushing TDs: 0.1
There might not be a more fun player in the NFL to root for than Minshew, but asking him to lead your fantasy team to glory comes with far more risk than reward.
Don’t get me wrong, Minshew can put fantasy points on the board when unleashed, though this appears to be a conservative offense that will ask him to not be reckless.
Across his 37 career starts, Minshew averaged 17.3 PPG when posting an average depth of throw north of 9 yards, and 15.7 PPG otherwise.
“That’s not that big of a gap, Kyle, and I want to have fun rooting for Minshew.”
I get it, but that gap is bigger than you think.
Last season, 17.3 PPG would have ranked as QB11, less than half a point from moving up two spots. On the other hand, 15.7 PPG would have been QB18, barely ahead of Joshua Dobbs.
Trust me, I like fun, and if Antonio Pierce decides to embrace a YOLO offense, Minshew has the potential to do some damage with two big-play receivers and a uniquely gifted tight end at his disposal. I just view that game plan as a long shot – a very long shot.
Geno Smith Week 1 Fantasy Advice
- Consensus Ranking: QB21
- Fantasy Points: 12.1
- Passing Yards: 164.7
- Passing TDs: 1.1
- Interceptions: 0.4
- Rushing Yards: 10.4
- Rushing TDs: 0.1
To me, this matchup is going to be won/lost well before the game plays out on Sunday. Ryan Grubb brings his big-play offense to face Vance Joseph’s aggressive defense — to the better schemer goes the spoils!
Denver blitzed on one-third of opponent dropbacks in 2023, the fourth-highest rate in the NFL, giving them the potential to pick at a scab of Smith (26th of 31 qualifiers in fantasy points per pass against the blitz last season).
That said, if the offensive line can buy Smith time, this could be a spike week. He’s been a top-seven passer over the past two seasons when throwing deep in terms of yards per attempt, touchdown rate, and passer rating. He’s proven to have a nice touch on those splash plays, and the argument could certainly be made that a veteran in Tyler Lockett is never going to be healthier than he is today.
I tend to favor the defense in a battle of the minds early in the season because there are fewer moving pieces. For Smith to hit on a long play, the offensive line needs to hold up, the receiver needs to get separation, and he has to identify the mismatch promptly.
That can happen, but I like the odds of that profile more after playing for a month and developing a rhythm. An aggressive offense can be effective from the jump, and that is what I expect the Broncos to do against a Seahawks line that allowed pressure at the eighth-highest rate in 2023 (not to mention a 46.1% pressure rate when blitzed).
Jared Goff Week 1 Fantasy Advice
- Consensus Ranking: QB11
- Fantasy Points: 17.3
- Passing Yards: 262.7
- Passing TDs: 1.7
- Interceptions: 0.6
- Rushing Yards: 4.0
- Rushing TDs: 0.1
My preseason pick for MVP (+2500) led this Lions offense to the third-best red-zone grade in the league last season (64.1% touchdown rate), and I maintain that he will have a strong season … just not a strong Week 1.
The Rams held opponents to the ninth-lowest red-zone completion percentage last season, putting them in a position to negate a major strength from this Detroit offense. That’s part of the puzzle, but the bigger one is the type of QB who thrived against Los Angeles last season.
- Lamar Jackson
- Anthony Richardson
- Jalen Hurts
- Kyler Murray
- Tyrod Taylor
- Dak Prescott
- Derek Carr
Those were the QBs responsible for the highest fantasy point totals against the Rams last season. Carr is the closest to the Goff play type, but he only got there because his Saints were down 23 with 6.5 minutes left (57.8% of his fantasy points that day came on the final two drives). With the Lions favored to win this game, I’m not betting on that profile, which lands Goff outside of my top 12 at the position this week.
Jayden Daniels Week 1 Fantasy Advice
- Consensus Ranking: QB10
- Fantasy Points: 17.5
- Passing Yards: 222.2
- Passing TDs: 1.0
- Interceptions: 0.6
- Rushing Yards: 36.8
- Rushing TDs: 0.3
If you drafted Daniels, you did so with his ceiling games in mind, and this could be one of them. Last season, the Buccaneers blitzed at the third-highest rate and allowed the eighth-most yards per pass attempt – is that not the perfect formula for Daniels’ profile?
The concern with the pride of LSU is his ability to process at the NFL level, but he might not need to in Week 1. If his first read is open (and it will be on occasion given Tampa Bay’s inconsistencies at the second level), he takes it. If it’s not because the Bucs guess right when they are blitzing, then the 6’4” athletic marvel gets out of the pocket and you watch the fantasy points pile up with him in space.
From a game script perspective, things could work out. I have my questions about Tampa Bay’s ability to run the ball (fourth in percentage of yards that came through the air last season), and if they operate similarly in this matchup, that is perfect for Daniels.
Either Baker Mayfield’s passes are hitting the turf and stopping the clock or they are picking up chunks (Washington allowed the third most yards per pass last season) and forcing Daniels to play catchup.
Like you, I have my concerns about the rookie’s support at his disposal, something that didn’t improve with trading Jahan Dotson ahead of the third week of the preseason. That is likely to result in some valleys this season, but that’s more of a concern in October (Browns and Ravens to open the month) than September (Buccaneers, Giants, Bengals, and Cardinals).
Joe Burrow Week 1 Fantasy Advice
- Consensus Ranking: QB9
- Fantasy Points: 17.9
- Passing Yards: 242.8
- Passing TDs: 1.8
- Interceptions: 0.7
- Rushing Yards: 9.8
- Rushing TDs: 0.1
Sitting Burrow is a viable move for fantasy managers to open this season. I have him just inside my top 12 at the position, so I’m not writing him off, but you need to be aware that he is sitting atop a tier that extends all the way down to QB20 – those 10 quarterbacks are separated by very little, and he is at risk of underwhelming.
First and foremost, we aren’t sure how healthy he is. The great Stephania Bell has been cautioning against labeling a return to practice and a return to form as anything but two different things – Burrow is going to play this week, but he’s been managed all offseason long and could certainly be limited.
As concerning as it is, it gets worse when you look back at slow season openers for Burrow in each of the past two seasons (cumulative Week 1 stats: 84 pass attempts, two touchdowns, and four interceptions). Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase had loud offseasons while Joe Mixon moved on – this offense should still be good, but it might require time.
That’s a lot of moving pieces to take into a game against a Patriots team that excelled on the defensive side of the ball:
- Third-fewest yards per drive
- Fourth-lowest touchdown rate
- Sixth-best red-zone defense
- Seventh in blitz rate
I’m playing both of the primary rookie QBs over Burrow this week if I have the chance, and I think it’s within the range of outcomes for a veteran like Derek Carr (vs. WAS) or Matthew Stafford (at DET) to post a better total to open the season.
Josh Allen Week 1 Fantasy Advice
- Consensus Ranking: QB1
- Fantasy Points: 23.8
- Passing Yards: 248.1
- Passing TDs: 1.9
- Interceptions: 0.9
- Rushing Yards: 39.2
- Rushing TDs: 0.5
No surprise here – Allen was a Tier-1 quarterback during the draft process, and he profiles as such this week against a Cardinals defense that allowed the highest deep completion percentage (55.8%, NFL average: 43.4%) and the second-most yards per drive (34.8).
Joe Brady’s offense revolved around Allen last season, and while I expect the new pieces to need time to gel, facing a defense with limited talent and the league’s lowest blitz rate a season ago should help mask any learning curve in this matchup.
Allen has cleared 21 fantasy points in six of his past seven September games and is averaging 28.2 PPG in his last nine September victories. Buffalo is a 5.5-point favorite this week.
Justin Herbert Week 1 Fantasy Advice
- Consensus Ranking: QB20
- Fantasy Points: 12.6
- Passing Yards: 174.9
- Passing TDs: 1.1
- Interceptions: 0.4
- Rushing Yards: 9.4
- Rushing TDs: 0.1
If you drafted Herbert this summer, it was a bet on his talent with the understanding that you’d have to wait and see what this new-look offense did to maximize his tools.
Nothing has changed. Even in a seemingly strong matchup (though I’m never in a hurry to play a quarterback that could be subject to punishment from Maxx Crosby), you’re best to showcase patience.
It was a bumpy finish to 2023 (one TD pass on 98 pass attempts before his season ended early) and without much in the way of experience surrounding him, why would we assume that Herbert is ready to produce top-15 numbers at a loaded position?
I’m not sure either of these offenses will be in a hurry to snap the ball, potentially making this a low-possession game that nukes the fantasy value of most involved.
Kirk Cousins Week 1 Fantasy Advice
- Consensus Ranking: QB19
- Fantasy Points: 13.3
- Passing Yards: 190.0
- Passing TDs: 1.4
- Interceptions: 0.4
- Rushing Yards: 9.1
- Rushing TDs: 0.1
In his Atlanta debut, I have Cousins pegged as QB16, though he is smack dab in the middle of a tier that extends up to QB11, making him a viable DFS option if ownership projections have him as a contrarian play.
His aDOT has dipped in consecutive seasons. While a new team could reverse that trend, I’m not sold that it will be necessary for him to produce viable numbers this week against a Steelers defense that allowed the seventh-most yards per reception after the catch last season.
2023 Pass Rate Over Expectation:
- Vikings: sixth
- Falcons: 32nd
It’s safe to project the 2024 Falcons to rank somewhere in the middle third of the league with his weekly upside relying on this team trending closer to last season’s Vikings. It wouldn’t shock me if this unit gets to the top 10 in pass rate, but it’ll require time and comfort.
Pittsburgh ranked 10th in blitz rate and opponent passer rating a season ago. It is a viable defense that figures to give Cousins problems (since 2022: second in completion percentage when not blitzed, 22nd when blitzed) out of the gate.
Anything can happen, but I expect to be relatively off of Cousins for the first month of the season before exploring DFS options in October, when the Falcons face the Bucs (twice), Panthers, and Seahawks.
Kyler Murray Week 1 Fantasy Advice
- Consensus Ranking: QB7
- Fantasy Points: 18.4
- Passing Yards: 217.8
- Passing TDs: 1.3
- Interceptions: 0.6
- Rushing Yards: 30.3
- Rushing TDs: 0.3
I’m very excited about Murray’s ceiling this season, but I only have him as a fringe QB1 this week due to some matchup concerns as well as the time it could take for him to maximize the weapons at his disposal.
Splash plays are going to be Murray’s hallmark in 2024. Whether they are chunk runs or big gains through the air, Murray is unlikely to post a big fantasy number based on raw volume, but rather his unique ability for quick strikes. I anticipate we see plenty of that upside as the season progresses, but probably not to open the year.
2023 Buffalo Bills:
- Eighth-highest non-blitz pressure rate
- Fourth-lowest opponent deep pass TD rate
- Fewest yards allowed per deep completion
That profile doesn’t play favorably when it comes to evaluating Murray’s range of outcomes. I said it earlier about the big plays, but allow me to put some context to it.
In Murray’s 11 best fantasy games of his career, 41.8% of passing fantasy points came on deep passes (career: 28.2%), and 35.9% of his fantasy points came on the ground (career: 29.3%).
Be patient. The Cards get the Rams, Lions, and Commanders after this week. You’re going to be happy to have Murray on your roster before long.
For Week 1, however, I have him checking in just behind the two dynamic rookie quarterbacks and as my QB9.
Matthew Stafford Week 1 Fantasy Advice
- Consensus Ranking: QB15
- Fantasy Points: 14.5
- Passing Yards: 224.1
- Passing TDs: 1.5
- Interceptions: 0.7
- Rushing Yards: 2.2
- Rushing TDs: 0.1
In 2022, without Puka Nacua, Stafford ranked 27th in fantasy points per pressured attempt. In 2023, only seven quarterbacks were better, and that doesn’t include any of the top three quarterbacks off of fantasy draft boards this summer.
With Nacua able to win in a hurry and Cooper Kupp, theoretically, at full strength, Stafford repeating if not improving upon that quick-read production is very much in play. That’s a good trait to have any week but specifically against a Lions team that attempted to mask some secondary deficiencies by ranking third in pressure percentage a year ago (41.3%, trailing only Dallas and Cleveland).
Stafford funneled 55.9% of his targets in the playoff loss to these Lions to the Nacua/Kupp tandem; if he continues to look the way of his elite playmakers that often, he could backdoor his way into fantasy viable numbers.
I’ve taken a more conservative approach in ranking him, as I fear that Detroit could control the tempo in this spot. You could do worse than Stafford in a one-QB setting this week thanks to the matchup, but my guess is that, barring some unique strategy, the other QB on your roster is the better bet.
Russell Wilson Week 1 Fantasy Advice
- Consensus Ranking: QB29
- Fantasy Points: 8.4
- Passing Yards: 106.9
- Passing TDs: 0.7
- Interceptions: 0.3
- Rushing Yards: 8.8
- Rushing TDs: 0.1
Would you believe me if I told you that, of all of the featured games this week, this is the one that features the two best quarterbacks who paid off best, on a per-pass attempt basis, against pressure last year?
It’s true. Both are obviously on different teams now, but the point remains that these two wily veterans can still find holes in defenses.
Wilson was conservative in these spots (13.1% fewer attempts downfield than league average when pressured), but that has the potential to keep him as a viable QB2/Superflex option because it elevates his floor.
There’s some upside layered into his profile given the soft deep touch he has showcased throughout his career and the physical gifts of George Pickens. I’m not ranking Wilson as a top-15 signal-caller this week, but if you squint hard enough, a vintage performance is within the range of realistic outcomes.
Sam Darnold Week 1 Fantasy Advice
- Consensus Ranking: QB25
- Fantasy Points: 10.2
- Passing Yards: 134.0
- Passing TDs: 0.7
- Interceptions: 0.5
- Rushing Yards: 11.7
- Rushing TDs: 0.3
Maybe there is a world in which we see the best version of Darnold on a Vikings team that, when at full strength, has a trio of pass catchers that is certainly capable of elevating the quarterback. Banking on him being usable out of the gates in anything but deep Superflex leagues, however, is borderline crazy.
In Darnold’s six best fantasy performances to date, he challenged secondaries deep downfield with an aDOT of 9.2 yards. I suspect we see a more conservative approach from him to open this season, especially in a game where the script is unlikely to demand aggression, resulting in him ranking outside of my top 20 at the position.
Trevor Lawrence Week 1 Fantasy Advice
- Consensus Ranking: QB14
- Fantasy Points: 15.5
- Passing Yards: 221.0
- Passing TDs: 1.1
- Interceptions: 0.7
- Rushing Yards: 18.1
- Rushing TDs: 0.2
The Dolphins blitzed at the sixth-lowest rate a season ago, something that, along with the game script, gives Lawrence a path to an interesting upside. In 2023, he ranked 30th in fantasy points per blitzed pass attempt and 13th when not blitzed.
In Week 1 last season, Lawrence found himself with a different receiving core than he left the prior season with and in a game that cleared 50 total points. Sound familiar?
He finished the week as QB8. Projecting such a finish isn’t wise, but I think he finishes inside the top 15 at the position this week — that was higher than his ADP this summer. The Dolphins stack will be popular in DFS – if you wanted to take your favorite piece of their offense as a bringback to a Jaguar stack, you can be drastically different than the field despite identifying the same game as the favorable one to load up on.
Tua Tagovailoa Week 1 Fantasy Advice
- Consensus Ranking: QB12
- Fantasy Points: 16.2
- Passing Yards: 239.6
- Passing TDs: 1.6
- Interceptions: 0.7
- Rushing Yards: 6.3
- Rushing TDs: 0.1
I don’t want to say it’s a flow chart situation when it comes to Miami’s lefty, but I’m not going to say it’s not. For his career, in games with over 25 passes thrown …
- Kickoff temperature 80+ degrees: 22.1 fantasy points per game
- Kickoff temperature <80 degrees: 14.7 fantasy points per game
For reference, QB2 last season averaged 21 PPG while QB21 averaged 14.7 PPG. We have ourselves a warm game – so you blindly plug in Tagovailoa, right?
Always a #FantasyFootball topic
Tagovailoa might get you Tua title game (three straight non-weather issues in Weeks 14-16) but Week 17 at CLE needs the be factored into the #FantasyFootball rankings process pic.twitter.com/twt4GTFvU4
— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) August 15, 2024
I wouldn’t go that far, but when facing a defense that ranked in the bottom quarter of the league last season in pressure rate and opponent pass touchdown percentage, it’s easy to like the polarizing Dolphin as much as ever.
Will Levis Week 1 Fantasy Advice
- Consensus Ranking: QB28
- Fantasy Points: 9.1
- Passing Yards: 146.9
- Passing TDs: 0.6
- Interceptions: 0.3
- Rushing Yards: 4.6
- Rushing TDs: 0.1
We know that Levis was awfully uneven as a rookie, and we are all expecting more of the same in Year 2. The Titans spent the offseason positioning themselves to throw more in 2024, and I’m buying it – but that doesn’t mean he is going to matter in Week 1 or on any sort of consistent basis in anything but Superflex leagues.
I’m sure he will suck me in for some DFS exposure at some point, but not this week. Not even close. DeAndre Hopkins is expected to be active, although I’m not sure he’ll be at full strength, and when you combine that with a Chicago defense that was better than good down the stretch of last season (top-3 in opponent passer rating, EPA, and red-zone trips allowed from Week 12-18), there’s no reason to get cute here.