In the unpredictable landscape of the NFL, sometimes zigging when others zag can be a key to victory. We’ve seen it time and time again, with a recent example being the swing back toward RB/LB value. In the past 10 years, offenses (and the rules!) have slanted toward high-powered passing attacks.
But when you look at our current Divisional Round matchups, each team has what we would consider to be a “bell cow” running back. While we see some teams attempting to overpower others with brute force (à la the Baltimore Ravens or Philadelphia Eagles), we see others trying to use surprise changes of pace or execution strategies to outmaneuver opponents and take advantage of assumptions to outsmart them.
Well, the same can go for betting. The majority of public money is on the Los Angeles Rams in this one, but I’m going away from some of the more popular bets in this one, and taking the contrarian route — the path less traveled. Let’s dive in!
Our Favorite Player Props and Game Lines
Rams at Eagles, Overall Spread — Eagles -6.5 (-110)
All week long, Philadelphia has been taking heat from the media because of their offense’s “lackluster” performance vs. the Packers in the Wild Card round. Do these people forget that we were one Saquon-slide away from a 29-10 win instead of a 22-10 win? Do they not realize that the Packers have a better defense than the Rams, according to PFN’s DEF+ metrics?
There’s also been a lot of talk about Jalen Hurts’ performance in the Packers game. Am I the only one that’s looking at the Eagles like, why WOULD they show everything they’ve got? In a game where they were handling the Packers, why NOT just run them into the ground?
I like this game to start close – as is the ritual with the Eagles, but I like Philadelphia to pull away late – and -6.5 is a heavenly line, especially at home.
Rams at Eagles, 1H Spread — Rams +3.5 (-118)
As I mentioned above – the Eagles start slow. It feels like it happens every game. However, it doesn’t just feel like it – the stats follow. I’m shooting a narrow, narrow gap with this one.
The Eagles rank 14th in the NFL in first-half scoring and shoot up to fourth in the second half of games. Maybe it’s Saquon grinding a defense to a pulp, Hurts taking a bit of time to hit his rhythm, or adjustments by Coach Nick Sirianni at half, but the Eagles are a second-half team.
MORE: Los Angeles Rams vs. Philadelphia Eagles Prediction, Picks Divisional Round
The Eagles thrive in close games – and are a league-best 7-1 in games that enter the fourth quarter with a score difference of three points or less. I smell a close one here for the majority, with the Eagles pulling away in the end.
DeVonta Smith, O50 Receiving Yards, (-145)
With all of the attention on AJ Brown in recent weeks, from his relationship to Jalen Hurts to reading a book on the sidelines during a playoff game, DeVonta Smith has quietly been the Eagles’ most dependable wideout.
Smith has passed the 50 yards in all of his last four games, amassing 27 catches in that span (for comparison, AJ Brown has 20). This week, he’s facing a bottom-ranked Rams defense, according to PFN’s DEF+ metrics. The Rams are solid around the goal line, but they’re soft in the middle of the field – and that’s where Smith will do his damage.
Puka Nacua, Longest Reception 026.5 Yards (-110)
Puka has gone over this mark in three of his last four games, and I love him to do so again in this one. The Eagles’ defense is one of the top defenses in the league, coming in at a B+ according to PFN’s DEF+ rankings, but they lost LB Nakobe Dean last week – which will be a tough loss for that unit.
Puka has proven himself to be a massive problem to any defense he faces, and I like him for one big play (especially if in a competitive or losing game script) against the Eagles, who he gashed for a 29-yard catch back in Week 12.
Kenneth Gainwell, O9.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Let’s get crazy here, people! Again, we’re going contrarian in this one – so while everyone is watching Saquon? We’ll be watching our boy Kenny G.
In his last six games, Gainwell has surpassed this mark four times, and with the Eagles leaning on the ground game more heavily over their last three games, Gainwell has seen a slight uptick in carries – even with Saquon seeing 29+ touches in all of those games.
Also, if we’re leaning on the Eagles in this one – there’s a chance they have a lead at the end of the game, which makes 10 yards feels like an extremely achievable number, even if Gainwell only sees 3-5 carries.
Same Game Parlay (+400)
- Saquon Barkley, 100+ Rush/Rec Yards (-360): has surpassed this number in 10 of the last 12 games.
- Dallas Goedert, 25+ Receiving Yards (-255): has surpassed this number in 9 of the last 10 games played (including gap for injury).
- Kyren Williams, 2+ Receptions (-215): has surpassed this number in 5 of the last 6 games.
- Cooper Kupp, U3.5 Receptions (+100): has gone below this number in five of the last six games. Last hit in WK15.
Note: All lines are from DraftKings and are taken at the time the article was published. Odds are subject to change after the article is published.
