Welcome to Week 18, fantasy football fans! It’s the last week of the 2024 regular season, and you know what that means: player salary incentives and a wide (and varying) range of motivations for teams to win their games. In this article, we’re going to select our favorite game lines (aka. Money Lines) and player props (aka Proper Plays) for Saturday’s Week 18 action, and they’re going to be heavily based on the aforementioned salary incentives and/or team playoff implications.
Remember, for lines above -150, we generally don’t take these straight up (odds are too high), but we like to mix these into two or three-leg parlays. (All odds are subject to change based on information that comes out after the article has been published).
Best Saturday NFL Player Props and Moneyline Bets
Bengals at Steelers (ML -142)
The Bengals must win this game to have a chance at a playoff birth. The Steelers have lost all of their last three games, scoring only 13, 17, and 10 points respectively. Meanwhile, the Bengals have scored over 23 points in each of their last nine games.
Browns at Ravens (Under 41.5 -112)
In 33 drives with Dorian Thompson-Robinson at QB for the Browns, they have only scored two TDs and one FG. If the Ravens have a big lead in this game, we may see them resting many of their starters, which could put a cap on their scoring potential.
MORE: NFL Week 18 Picks and Predictions
Now that Bailey Zappe is starting for Cleveland, I have even less confidence in them scoring any sort of points in this one.
Derrick Henry, Anytime TD: -255
Henry has 16 touchdowns in 16 games played this season. He broke the all-time Ravens single-season TD record last week. 17 would give him more room at the top.
Vegas ALSO loves the potential here. I also like this as part of a two or three-leg parlay. Yes, the odds are high, but it is hard to bet against Henry here. The only fear is the Ravens getting too big of a lead and resting Henry in the second half. Terrifying to think we might be cheering on a Zappe-led Browns team to keep this one somewhat close.
Ja’Marr Chase, Anytime TD: -165
Chase has 16 TD in 16 games played this season. In the last game vs CLE (Dec 22, Week 16), Chase had six catches for 97 yards and a TD.
Mark Andrews, Anytime TD: +150
Andrews has caught a TD pass in five straight games, and nine out of the last 11. The Baltimore Ravens have scored over 30 points in 10 of last 13 games.
Jaylen Warren, O3.5 Receptions, +135
Warren has 5+ receptions in both of the last two games and has surpassed 4+ in three of the last five games. The Bengals’ defense is notoriously poor against RBs, and Pittsburgh will need to keep up with the high-powered CIN offense.
Jerry Jeudy, O60 Receiving Yards, -110
Jeudy caught 12 of 18 targets last week with Dorian Thompson-Robinson at QB for 92 yards. He has gone over 60 yards receiving in 8 of the last nine games.
Stats and Insights Around Both Saturday NFL Games
Cincinnati Bengals
Team: Over the past 20 seasons, teams that have won at least four December games have made the playoffs 85.4% of the time.
QB: Joe Burrow has nine games this season, earning a ‘B’ or better in our QB+ metric – he had eight such games over the two seasons prior.
Offense: The Bengals have converted just eight of 13 (61.5%) goal-to-go drives into touchdowns over their past three games (first 14 weeks: 82.8%).
Defense: Cincinnati has stopped its opponent on at least two-thirds of third downs in three of its past four games, something it did just three times through the first 13 weeks.
Fantasy: On top of all of the passing numbers, Burrow has a 15+ yard rush in consecutive games for the first time since October 2022.
Betting: Four straight games, and seven of their past eight, played on extended rest by the Bengals have either seen them cover and the under hit OR them fail to cover and the over cash.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Team: The Steelers have multiple losing streaks this regular season, something two Super Bowl Champions have done in the 2000s:
- 2010 Packers: Lost a Week 15 road game and gave up 27+ points
- 2015 Broncos: Lost a Week 15 road game and gave up 27+ points
- 2024 Steelers: Lost a Week 15 road game and gave up 27+ points
QB: In George Pickens’ return, Russell Wilson couldn’t find a rhythm downfield. He went just one-of-six on deep throws (his lowest such completion percentage of the season) and threw an interception (his first such pick since Week 10).
Offense: From Weeks 6-14, Pittsburgh won seven of the eight right games and averaged 2.26 points per drive. They have been 0-3 since and have scored just 1.29 points per drive.
Defense: The Steelers lost on Christmas Day despite holding the Chiefs to just a 30% success rate on third downs (prior to that game, they were 6-1 this season when holding their opponent to a 30% conversion rate).
Fantasy: Jaylen Warren’s usage is trending up, and he’s cleared PPR fantasy expectations by over 5% in five of his past seven games.
Betting: Pittsburgh’s ATS results have mirrored their real-life results—they’ve covered all 10 of their wins and failed to cover all 6 of their losses.
Cleveland Browns
Team: The Browns have won two straight games and three of their past four against the Ravens (they were 3-10 in the previous 13 meetings).
QB: Dorian Thompson-Robinson has thrown 115 passes this season and has zero touchdowns to show for it (six interceptions). He is 0-of-9 with three interceptions when throwing 20+ yards downfield.
Offense: The Browns are averaging 27.2% fewer points per drive this season than they did a year ago.
Defense: Sunday was the fourth time this season in which the Browns allowed under 20 yards per drive – they’ve managed to lose all four of those games.
Fantasy: Jerry Jeudy joined Josh Gordon (2013) and Kellen Winslow (2007) as the only Browns to earn 18 targets in a game (he was also the third Brown to catch 12 passes in a game, interestingly enough, the first to do both).
Betting: Cleveland is just 4-12 ATS in their past 16 road divisional games.
Baltimore Ravens
Team: The 2007 Giants and the 2001 Patriots are the only teams since 2000 to win their conference despite losing the first two games of the season (the Ravens lost to the Chiefs and Raiders to open up the season). Both of those teams went on to win the Super Bowl.
QB: Lamar Jackson’s average QB+ this season (82.9) is well above what he posted a season ago (77.1).
Offense: The Ravens have picked up over 43 yards per drive in three straight games (they had two such performances through the first 14 weeks of this season).
Defense: After allowing opponents to pick up 46.7% of their third downs through 10 weeks, Baltimore has held strong with a 29.1% conversion rate since.
Fantasy: Mark Andrews has scored on 16.4% of his targets this season, a massive surge from his rate over the two years prior (6.3%).
Betting: Wednesday was the first time the Ravens have covered a game that went under the total since their Week 4 win over the Bills.