The biggest storyline from a betting perspective so far this NFL season is that unders are hitting at a near-historical rate. According to Evan Abrams at The Action Network, unders are hitting at their best rate entering Week 7 in 32 years. Last week, unders went 12-2-1 and are 56-36-1 for the season.
The success of unders this season is reflected in the NFL odds this week, as there are three games with a total lower than 40 points and only one higher than 50, and that’s in a game featuring the best offense we’ve seen since “The Greatest Show On Turf.”
For this week, a common theme for the NFL betting lines is how many short-point spreads there are. Of the 11 games today, seven of them have a point spread of three or less.
With so many games that are expected to be tight contests, combined with unders hitting at such a high rate, how should this impact your decision-making when making your NFL picks? Let’s take a look at the NFL Week 7 predictions, picks, and more from the PFN betting team.
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NFL Week 7 Picks and Predictions
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook. Click here to place your bets!
Cleveland Browns vs. Indianapolis Colts Prediction
- Spread
Browns -3.5 - Moneyline
Browns -185, Colts +154 - Total
41 - Game Time
1:00 p.m. ET - Location
Lucas Oil Stadium - How To Watch
CBS, Paramount Plus, Fubo TV, NFL Sunday Ticket
Bearman: What to make of the Cleveland Browns? QB Deshaun Watson, his backups, and their offense have continued to struggle, but their defense tops the league. You’re likely looking at a banged-up Watson vs. a backup QB (Gardner Minshew) for the Colts, so I want no part of a side.
With a top-notch defense and two struggling offenses … yes, another under, please.
Pick: Under 40.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Washington Commanders vs. New York Giants Prediction
- Spread
Commanders -3 - Moneyline
Commanders -162, Giants +136 - Total
37.5 - Game Time
1:00 p.m. ET - Location
MetLife Stadium - How To Watch
CBS, Paramount Plus, Fubo TV, NFL Sunday Ticket
Blewis: The Commanders aren’t close to as good as their 3-3 record indicates, and despite how bad the Giants have looked this season, this spread seems too high to me.
The Giants’ offensive line won’t be getting back any of their injured starters for this one, but despite all of the talent on the Commanders’ defensive line, they rank just 25th in pass rush win rate so far this season.
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In each of the Giants’ five losses this season, they have come against teams that rank top 10 in this category, with their one win coming against the Cardinals, who are 28th in pass rush win rate.
I certainly will not be betting the Giants straight up in this one, but now that they’re getting a field goal, I am a bit more interested.
Pick: Lean Giants +3 (-118 at DraftKings)
Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Prediction
- Spread
Buccaneers -2.5 - Moneyline
Falcons +130, Buccaneers -155 - Total
37 - Game Time
1:00 p.m. ET - Location
Raymond James Stadium - How To Watch
FOX, Fubo TV, NFL Sunday Ticket
Bearman: This line confuses me. The Atlanta Falcons have shown us absolutely nothing since their 2-0 start, only winning in the final seconds vs. the Houston Texans in QB Desmond Ridder’s one shining moment. They seem to be backsliding as the season progresses.
I’m not saying the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are all-world, but this line implies they’re even, as the 2.5 points are mostly for home-field advantage. I don’t believe that these teams are even, however, and I expect the Bucs to handle this one.
Pick: Buccaneers -2.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Blewis: I’m with Bearman here, but we also were both on the Saints on Thursday Night Football, so that makes me a little nervous now.
The Buccaneers were a fraudulent 3-1 team, but the Falcons aren’t any better. By DVOA, the Bucs are the 15th-best team in the NFL, and the Falcons are 26th.
Even with the addition of Bijan Robinson, the Falcons have struggled to get their rushing offense going and will be going against a Bucs defense that is allowing the seventh-fewest rushing yards per game. The Bucs’ point differential is also 23 points better than the Falcons at the moment.
Up until last week, Falcons QB Desmond Ridder was undefeated at home — but he is also winless on the road as an NFL starter, and he struggles greatly away from Atlanta. For his career, his completion percentage is almost 10% lower, and his yards per attempt is just 5.52 when playing on the road.
This almost seems too easy, but I’d rather take my chances than pass because it’s a fishy line.
Pick: Buccaneers -2.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots Prediction
- Spread
Bills -7.5 - Moneyline
Bills -360, Patriots +285 - Total
40 - Game Time
1:00 p.m. ET - Location
Gillette Stadium - How To Watch
CBS, Paramount Plus, Fubo TV, NFL Sunday Ticket
Blewis: This might be the most disgusting pick we have given out in one of these columns this season, so if you don’t want to tail this one, I can’t blame you.
It’s awfully telling that the spread has dropped in this one despite all the tickets being on Buffalo. But rather than taking the Patriots getting points, I like them to go over their team total of 14.5 points.
This Bills defense is banged up, to say the least. They have lost three of their best defensive players to injury in Tre’Davious White, Matt Milano, and DaQuan Jones. Although they held the Giants to just under 10 points last week, that included two stops at the goal line, which is unlikely to happen again.
With such a large point spread, the Patriots can easily go over this total in garbage time.
Pick: Patriots over 14.5 points (-108 at FanDuel)
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Chicago Bears Prediction
- Spread
Raiders -2.5 - Moneyline
Raiders -142, Bears +120 - Total
38 - Game Time
1:00 p.m. ET - Location
Soldier Field - How To Watch
FOX, Fubo TV, NFL Sunday Ticket
Blewis: This is an ugly game to say the least, and it starts with the quarterback matchup.
It will be Brian Hoyer vs. Tyson Bagent, but luckily for these two, they’ll each be going up against one of the worst defenses in the league, as the Raiders are 25th in EPA/play, and the Bears are 31st.
I don’t buy the Raiders being as good as their record by any means, and despite how bad the Bears are, I lean towards them getting a field goal at home. Even against Chicago, I don’t think the Raiders are deserving to be 3-point road favorites against almost anyone.
Pick: Lean Bears +3 (-118 at DraftKings)
Katz: With Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson still out due to injuries, it will once again be D’Onta Foreman as the lead back. So far this season, the Raiders have been the cure all for struggling running backs, allowing best games of the season to AJ Dillon and Rhamondre Stevenson.
While Foreman didn’t exactly struggle last week, the point is more that the Raiders have an issue defending the run. With the Bears starting UDFA rookie Tyson Bagent at quarterback, we are getting a bit of an inflated line on Foreman to score a touchdown, given the deceased likelihood the Bears score at all.
I think they’ll be okay with Bagent. Foreman played 61% of the snaps last week and handled 15 carries. If the Bears get inside the five, it will be Foreman with the chance to score. The odds are worth taking a chance on a team’s lead back to fall into the end zone.
Pick: D’Onta Foreman anytime touchdown (+185 at DraftKings)
Detroit Lions vs. Baltimore Ravens Prediction
- Spread
Ravens -3 - Moneyline
Lions +130, Ravens -155 - Total
43 - Game Time
1:00 p.m. ET - Location
M&T Bank Stadium - How To Watch
FOX, Fubo TV
Bearman: If you haven’t bought a ticket on the “Detroit Lions Express,” you can still jump on — they’re still getting points here. The Lions are an OT loss away from being the lone unbeaten team in the NFL, and that includes four straight wins by two TDs or more.
The Lions are playing like the best team in football and not getting the attention of the other 5-1 teams, which is fine because we like getting points.
The Baltimore Ravens just played in London and did not have their bye after their win over Tennessee. Every time you believe in the Ravens, they give one back, and that was against the Pittsburgh Steelers and Indianapolis Colts — not a good Lions team.
Pick: Lions +3 (-115 at DraftKings)
Soppe: The Lions have been America’s team through six weeks. They are the franchise with a history of losing that is capitalizing on an opportunity and that makes for a great story. It also, however, can lead to fade spots, and that is the case for me this weekend.
For the season, the Lions rank third in average time of possession, eighth in rush yards per game, and ninth in third-down conversion rate. All of those point to a consistent ground game behind a line that our Dalton Miller ranks as the second-best unit in the league.
That’s great until you travel to face the second-best yards-per-play defense in the league without a single healthy running back (David Montgomery is expected to sit while the other two options are compromised).
On the other side of the ball, the Lions create pressure at the second-highest rate, but is it optimal to have Lamar Jackson running around? The high pressure rate also encourages quick passes, something Todd Monken clearly wants to do in Baltimore, with Jackson posting a sub-eight-yard aDOT.
Jared Goff has been great this season, but his worst game in terms of passer rating and QBR this season came in Week 3, the only game Montgomery has missed up to this point. He and the Lions were at home for those struggles, a place where they typically thrive. Detroit is still a dangerous team in the NFC; I just don’t think we see it on Sunday.
Pick: Ravens -3 (-105 at DraftKings)
Blewis: It looks like it’s me and Soppe vs. Bearman for this one.
Dating back to last season, we have more than a big enough sample size to admit that the Detroit Lions are real and a legitimate Super Bowl contender. But this is the ultimate sell-high spot for Detroit.
Since their win over Kansas City in Week 1, the Lions have mostly beat up on bad teams, with wins against the Falcons, Packers, Panthers, and Buccaneers. None of those games were close, however, so I’m not trying to discredit them by any means. But the difficulty of those matchups doesn’t come close to playing against this Ravens team in Baltimore.
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I think this Ravens team is falling under the radar a bit. They’re two unlucky losses away from being 6-0, with their loss against the Steelers especially being the flukiest of the season. They’re also much healthier now on both sides of the ball than they were earlier this year, and it has been quite some time since we last saw the Ravens not decimated by injuries.
The one concern here is that the Ravens are coming off a London game without a bye week, but that didn’t affect the Jaguars whatsoever last week.
Pick: Ravens -3 (-105 at DraftKings)
Katz: You can’t run on the Lions. They are allowing just 3.1 YPC and a total of 47 rushing yards a game to running backs. A running back seeing a ton of volume would have trouble reaching 46 yards against them. Gus Edwards is not seeing a ton of volume.
The Ravens split their backfield between Edwards and Justice Hill. Last week, Edwards saw a season-high 16 carries. He is normally in the 10-12 range. Yet, he still ran for just 41 yards against the Titans’ stout run defense. We have a similarly tough matchup this week, and I’m expecting similar results.
Pick: Gus Edwards under 45.5 rushing yards (-120 at DraftKings)
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Los Angeles Rams Prediction
- Spread
Rams -3 - Moneyline
Steelers +142, Rams -170 - Total
44 - Game Time
4:05 p.m. ET - Location
SoFi Stadium - How To Watch
FOX, Fubo TV, NFL Sunday Ticket
Blewis: It has been extremely profitable to bet the Steelers as underdogs under Mike Tomlin, as they’re 56-31-4 ATS. However, this might be the worst Steelers team of Tomlin’s career, and you never want to bet a side purely because of historical trends.
The Rams might be missing Kyren Williams for this one, and there should be a ton of Steelers fans at this game, but I still lean toward the “home” team.
This is a matchup of two three-win teams, but the Rams have been the far better team so far this season. In their three wins, the Steelers have been out-gained by a combined 228 yards but are +7 in turnover differential, a sign that these were pretty flukey wins. Of all teams with at least three wins this season, the Steelers rank by far the worst offensively in EPA/play (29th) and success rate (32nd).
The one concern here would be T.J. Watt wreaking havoc against a Rams offensive line that struggles in pass protection, but I still lean toward the Rams as long as the spread stays under 3.5 points.
Pick: Rams -3 (-115 at DraftKings)
Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks Prediction
- Spread
Seahawks -8.5 - Moneyline
Cardinals +320, Seahawks -410 - Total
44.5 - Game Time
4:05 p.m. ET - Location
Lumen Field - How To Watch
FOX, Fubo TV, NFL Sunday Ticket
Blewis: The Seahawks had nearly 400 yards of offense last week yet still only put up 13 points. This was largely due to one red-zone interception, settling for a field goal at Cincinnati’s 5-yard line one possession, and two failed fourth-down conversions inside the 10-yard line late in the game.
Against a Cardinals defense that is one of the worst in the NFL — 30th in EPA/play, 31st in DVOA, 32nd in success rate — I’m expecting a bounce-back performance for this Seahawks offense, especially at home.
Pick: Seahawks over 26.5 points (-118 at FanDuel)
Katz: We are starting to see a shift in usage with the Cardinals tight ends. Last week, for the first time all season, Zach Ertz’s snap share fell below 50%. He ran a route on just 51% of Josh Dobbs’ dropbacks. After running 42 routes in Week 4, Ertz ran just 30 in Week 5 and 22 in Week 6. His role is decreasing.
Ertz’s total receiving yards line is just 22.5. I could take that under, but odds are, if he has a catch for at least 14 yards, he will go over that number. But given his usage this season, Ertz could easily see his role increase back to previous levels and still not catch a pass longer than 13 yards. He has just three of them all season.
Finally, the Seahawks have been excellent against the tight end. Just 14.4% of their receiving yards allowed have gone to the TE position. This is just a bad spot for Ertz all around. I was tempted to make it a two-unit play. Take that for what it’s worth.
Pick: Zach Ertz longest reception under 13.5 yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Prediction
- Spread
Chiefs -5 - Moneyline
Chargers +185, Chiefs -225 - Total
47.5 - Game Time
4:25 p.m. ET - Location
Arrowhead Stadium - How To Watch
CBS, Paramount Plus, Fubo TV, NFL Sunday Ticket
Blewis: I usually don’t like buying points, but I thought it was well worth getting the Chargers up to +6 at the price of -120.
Can you guess the last time the Chargers lost by more than six points? Well, it was Week 13 of 2022 when they lost 27-20 to the Las Vegas Raiders. And for his career, Justin Herbert is 4-1 ATS against Mahomes and has never lost by more than six points.
Most of all, I think this is a good buy-low spot for the Chargers coming off a brutal Monday Night Football loss to the Cowboys in which Herbert had maybe the worst game of his career. This Chiefs defense has been really good so far this season, but this is too many points, considering how close these two teams play each other.
Pick: Chargers +6 (-120 at DraftKings)
Soppe: If we are treating the NFL like the stock market, we are nearing the decision time on the Chiefs. For me, that’s buy time as long as No. 15 is under center, and this is as good a spot as any.
Kansas City is coming off of a disappointing showing against Denver, and they’ve had a mini-bye to rectify things. That’s bad news for the Chargers, the third-worst yards-per-play defense in the league that has a short prep week after playing on Monday night.
The Chiefs have scored 30.3 PPG against the Chargers over their past three meetings, a number I view as the expectation in this favorable spot. There’s no danger of a look-ahead spot (the Chiefs are in Denver next week), and when looking at the other teams with high implied totals this week, it’s not difficult to poke holes.
The Eagles are as capable of melting the clock as anyone, putting both them and the Dolphins at risk of underachieving in the scoring department on Sunday.
The Bills have a dinged-up Josh Allen against a divisional rival in the Patriots. Of course, the Patriots are a mess right now, but even through those struggles, they are a top-10 defense in terms of yards per play.
The Ravens and Lions game involves two potent offenses, but it also involves two of the five slowest-moving offenses in the league, lowering the overall point expectancy by way of limited possession count.
Speaking of limited possessions, the Seahawks are among the favorites in this exotic bet, but they rank 26th in average time of possession this season. They should have per-play success against the Cardinals, but will there be enough plays to hang a big number?
Pick: Chiefs to be the highest-scoring team on Sunday (+600 at DraftKings)
Green Bay Packers vs. Denver Broncos Prediction
- Spread
Packers -1 - Moneyline
Packers -120, Broncos +100 - Total
45 - Game Time
4:25 p.m. ET - Location
Empower Field at Mile High - How To Watch
CBS, Paramount Plus, Fubo TV, NFL Sunday Ticket
Soppe: There are a lot of ways to approach this game, and they all have me landing on the same two picks. My working theory is that Matt LaFluer is a good coach.
He’s been an offensive guy since his coaching career started, and with Jordan Love leading the league in aDOT despite playing most of this season thus far without the healthy version of his best big-play receiver, it’s clear that LaFluer is embracing the dynamic pass much the way the NBA has embraced three-point shooting.
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Building on that, the Packers are -44 in first halves this season but a borderline unbelievable +35 (outscoring opponents 46-11) in third quarters. The thought being there is that the Packers aren’t overly talented, but with game data in hand, he’s capable of maximizing what they do have. And you know what they have this week? Extra time to prepare for the thin air of Denver and the worst defense in recent memory.
The Broncos create pressure at the second-lowest rate in the league, and that should allow a finally healthy set of skill players to produce. Green Bay limped into the bye, but if LaFluer is the coach that I think he is, those struggles will be forgotten by Sunday evening.
Picks: Packers Q3 (-105 at DraftKings), Packers -1 (-115 at DraftKings)
Miami Dolphins vs. Philadelphia Eagles Prediction
- Spread
Eagles -3 - Moneyline
Dolphins +124, Eagles -148 - Total
51.5 - Game Time
8:20 p.m. ET - Location
Lincoln Financial Field - How To Watch
NBC, Peacock
Bearman: Only two of the Miami Dolphins’ six games this season have stayed under 60 total points. One was against Bill Belichick and the Patriots, while the other was a game against the Giants where the Dolphins’ backups played in the second half.
The Philadelphia Eagles are banged up, so I can see Miami winning this one as an underdog. Still, Miami also lost to the only good team they played this season — the Buffalo Bills. Either way, I expect a lot of points from both of these teams.
Pick: Over 51.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Blewis: After everything went wrong in their loss against the Jets last week, the Eagles have been getting fortunate news on the injury front this week. Lane Johnson is expected to play after exiting last week with an ankle sprain, and both Jalen Carter and Darius Slay are expected to play after they were both held out for the Jets game.
Once Johnson went out last week, the Eagles offense couldn’t get anything going against an elite Jets defense. But with his best offensive lineman back and going against a Dolphins defense that is 23rd in EPA/play, 28th in success rate, and 27th in DVOA, I think Hurts and this offense will bounce back, especially at home.
Obviously, the Dolphins offense scares me a ton here, but let’s take a look at the defenses this team has beaten this season by their EPA/play ranking — Patriots (15th), Chargers (27th), Panthers (28th), Giants (29th), and Broncos (32nd).
This Eagles defense isn’t particularly good (17th in EPA/play, but ninth in success rate), but their pass rush could make life more difficult for Tua Tagovailoa and this Dolphins offense than in previous weeks. The last time the Bills faced a top-10 defense in pass rush win rate, Tua had his worst game of the season with an EPA/play of -0.09.
Pick: Eagles ML (-125 at DraftKings)