The Week 3 NFL betting lines are all over the place. We have two double-digit favorites against perhaps the two worst teams in the NFL, have seen notable line movement due to injuries to star players such as Joe Burrow and Nick Chubb, and the favorite for two games has completely flipped since Sunday night. Also, three games in the northeast this week might be hit with major storms.
This slate doesn’t have as many intriguing matchups as the first two weeks of the season, but it’s still football. And it’s still the NFL. Let’s dive into our betting team’s NFL Week 3 predictions and picks against the spread.
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NFL Week 3 Picks and Predictions
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook as of 10:00 am EST. Click here to place your bets!
Tennessee Titans vs. Cleveland Browns Prediction
- Spread
Browns -3 - Moneyline
Titans +140, Browns -166 - Total
38 - Game Time
1 p.m. EST - Location
Cleveland Browns Stadium - How to Watch
CBS, Paramount Plus, Fubo TV, NFL Sunday Ticket
Bearman: I’m not sure how you can watch what Watson did on Monday night and want to lay the points here on short rest. He handed the Pittsburgh Steelers two TDs, and the game proved that the Browns QB is not the Watson of old.
There is a lot of work to be done in Cleveland with that offense, especially after losing Nick Chubb for the season. Now, their offense has a broken QB, backup RB, and oft-injured WR in Amari Cooper.
The Titans, meanwhile, are one point away from being 2-0. They covered on the road in Week 1 and upset the Los Angeles Chargers last week as a home dog. Now 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games, I’ll take them to cover here and would not be surprised by another outright win.
Pick: Titans +3.5 (-118 at DraftKings)
Soppe: Embracing uncertainty is one angle to take when evaluating the prop market, and I’m doing that to a degree in this game. We’re all aware that the Browns lost Nick Chubb to a devastating knee injury on Monday night. We’re all also aware that Jerome Ford did his best Chubb impersonation in relief (19 touches for 131 yards and a TD). And finally, we’re all aware that Deshaun Watson looks lost (55.1% completion rate).
Bring it on.
Ford is a good player, but he’s not Chubb. As far as the passing game goes, it was encouraging to see Amari Cooper (groin) look healthy last week, and if you dig just a little beneath the surface, there is a LOT of untapped upside in this passing game.
Through two weeks, Watson ranks fourth in air yards and 24th in passing yards. That’s just silly. Maybe he’s lost a step, but this? This isn’t sustaining, and a breakout is certainly possible against the pass-funnel Titans. Over Tennessee’s past nine games, here is the list of QBs they’ve held under 270 passing yards
- Trevor Lawrence
- Davis Mills
That’s a short list as it is, and I’m going to cut it in half. Lawrence and the Jags managed to run just 47 plays (under 24 minutes of possession) in an outlier performance. The Browns have increased their average time of possession each season under Kevin Stefanski and should have the ball enough to help us cash this ticket.
Pick: Deshaun Watson over 236.5 passing yards (-105 at DraftKings)
Katz: What happened to Nick Chubb last week was truly awful. First and foremost, I hope we see him back and fully healthy next season.
With Chubb out, Jerome Ford took over and did his best Chubb impression, ripping off 106 yards on 16 carries. Now, his rushing total is set at a paltry 46.5. What gives? The Titans run defense. That’s what.
Through two weeks, the Titans have held Jamaal Williams to 45 yards on 18 carries and Joshua Kelley to 39 yards on 13 carries.
It is quite the coincidence that for the third consecutive week, the Titans are facing a backup running back filling in for the starter. It won’t be a coincidence when the end result is the same.
Ford is a good player. He will be good. He just won’t be efficient on the ground this week. Plus, if Kareem Hunt mixes in at all for even a handful of carries, it will be even more difficult for Ford to surpass this number.
Pick: Jerome Ford under 46.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Minnesota Vikings Odds
- Spread
Vikings -1 - Moneyline
Chargers -102, Vikings -118 - Total
54 - Game Time
1 p.m. EST - Location
U.S. Bank Stadium - How to Watch
FOX, Fubo TV, NFL Sunday Ticket
Katz: I don’t usually give out anytime touchdown props as my best bet, but we have a unique occasion this week. In a game with a 54-point total, the best wide receiver football is priced at +105 to score a touchdown.
It has been nothing more than complete random variance that Justin Jefferson has not yet found the end zone. He should’ve scored last week, but he lost the ball reaching for the pylon at the end of the first half. Against a Chargers defense that couldn’t stop you or me through the air, Jefferson is finding the end zone here.
Pick: Justin Jefferson anytime touchdown (+105 at DraftKings)
New England Patriots vs. New York Jets Prediction
- Spread
Patriots -2.5 - Moneyline
Patriots -142, Jets +120 - Total
35.5 - Game Time
1 p.m. EST - Location
MetLife Stadium - How to Watch
CBS, Paramount Plus, Fubo TV, NFL Sunday Ticket
Bearman: I bet you didn’t think the 0-2 Patriots would be laying a field goal on the road at the Jets when the season started. Me neither, and I still don’t think they should be.
Yes, Zach Wilson is not Aaron Rodgers, and that showed in Dallas. But the Patriots team that we saw lose to Philly and Miami at home shouldn’t be laying points on the road, either. They have next to nothing on offense and now face one of the better defenses in the league.
36.5 isn’t low enough for these two offenses. This has 13-9 written all over it.
Pick: Under 36.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Blewis: The Patriots have won 14 straight games against the Jets. Sure, they had Tom Brady for eight of those games, but New York has had Zach Wilson for the last four. He’s still their starting quarterback, and Bill Belichick is still New England’s head coach.
The only notable movement in this one has been that the total dropped a point. However, with two turnover-prone QBs going against really good defenses, I would be cautious of taking this under.
Although they’re 0-2, the Patriots played two competitive games against the Eagles and Dolphins to start the season. They’re probably better than their record indicates, and their defense should have a field day against Wilson.
Pick: Patriots -2.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
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Katz: Garrett Wilson’s usage has been awful since Zach Wilson took over. He totaled 34 yards in Week 1, and if not for one spectacular individual feat of skill in Week 2, he would’ve caught one pass for 15 yards.
We just saw Bill Belichick erase Tyreek Hill, holding him to just 40 yards. Wilson is the only Jets pass catcher who evokes fear in opposing defenses, and Belichick will scheme to shut Wilson down.
I think the Jets win this game. Unless they have a negative game script, look for them to try and win with ball control and defense. That means running and short passing. It will be on the defense to win it and the offense to not lose it, so I don’t expect many downfield shots to Wilson.
Pick: Garrett Wilson under 48.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction
- Spread
Jaguars -7.5 - Moneyline
Texans +275, Jaguars -345 - Total
43.5 - Game Time
1 p.m. EST - Location
EverBank Stadium - How to Watch
FOX, Fubo TV, NFL Sunday Ticket
Katz: The Houston Texans have had one of the worst run defenses in the league for multiple years now, and they just allowed Zack Moss to run for 88 yards on 18 carries.
In Week 1, Travis Etienne Jr. saw 18 carries in an easy home win against the Colts, and he ran for 77 yards. Look for a similar performance this week against an even worse unit.
Pick: Travis Etienne Jr. over 69.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Buffalo Bills vs. Washington Commanders Prediction
- Spread
Bills -5.5 - Moneyline
Bills -285, Commanders +230 - Total
42.5 - Game Time
1 p.m. EST - Location
FedExField - How to Watch
CBS, Paramount Plus, Fubo TV, NFL Sunday Ticket
Soppe: The Bills offense has a wide range of outcomes, making their totals a tough one to handicap. That’s less the case with the Commanders, the 2022 leaders in average time of possession (seventh-highest through two weeks this season).
If the Commanders are going to control the tempo, this game is going to have a hard time reaching the projected total. They’ve committed to Brian Robinson Jr. in this running game, which is just another way for them to bleed the clock and chew up time.
On the Bills side, we are always one pass away from a questionable Josh Allen decision, and the return to form of Tre’Davious White gives them high-end defensive potential.
Last but not least, we have good ol’ trends on our side. Since 2021, unders are 11-3 when the Bills are a road favorite and 9-2 when the Commanders are a home underdog. Let’s keep the good times rolling!
Pick: Under 43.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Indianapolis Colts vs. Baltimore Ravens Prediction
- Spread
Ravens -7.5 - Moneyline
Colts +270, Ravens -340 - Total
43 - Game Time
1 p.m. EST - Location
M&T Bank Stadium - How to Watch
CBS, Paramount Plus, Fubo TV, NFL Sunday Ticket
Blewis: A game that might be impacted by weather, the odds for Colts vs. Ravens have mostly stayed the same. Even with Gardner Minshew set to start, I like them getting the points. In fact, Indy’s passing game should get a slight boost.
Baltimore has been really impressive so far, but this is still a lot of points for a team with so many key injuries. I don’t see them losing, but I like getting the hook at 8.5 in the event of a backdoor cover. Especially since, comparatively, the line is at Ravens -8 at DraftKings.
Pick: Colts +8.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
Katz: We are going to back to last year’s most profitable prop. Last season, I bet Michael Pittman Jr.’s longest reception under about 10 times. It went something like 9-1 (I didn’t go back and check, so don’t hold me to that).
In Week 1, Pittman caught a 39 yard touchdown from Anthony Richardson. However, that play was mostly yards after the catch from Pittman. He is still being used primarily underneath.
Pittman’s second-longest reception of the season is just 16 yards. After Gardner Minshew replaced Richardson last week, the targets were even shorter. Pittman caught passes for 11, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, and 3 yards. Minshew loves him some Pittman…but not downfield.
Outside of a 32-yard screen to Joe Mixon last week, the Ravens have yet to allow a single reception of over 20 yards.
Pick: Michael Pittman longest reception under 20.5 yards (-120 on DraftKings)
Atlanta Falcons vs. Detroit Lions Prediction
- Spread
Lions -3.5 - Moneyline
Falcons +140, Lions -166 - Total
47 - Game Time
1 p.m. EST - Location
Ford Field - How to Watch
FOX, Fubo TV, NFL Sunday Ticket
Blewis: The Lions enter this one with several injuries. C.J. Gardner-Johnson just went on injured reserve, David Montgomery is expected to miss some time, and three of their starting offensive linemen sat out of Thursday’s practice. The good news for them is that Amon-Ra St. Brown should be good to go.
The value was at Falcons +4.5 when the NFL Week 3 betting lines first came out. Atlanta’s offense is a lot of fun right now — especially Bijan Robinson — and the Lions’ defense still looks to be an area of weakness.
Lean: Falcons +3 (-102)
New Orleans Saints vs. Green Bay Packers Prediction
- Spread
Packers -1 - Moneyline
Saints -102, Packers -118 - Total
42 - Game Time
1 p.m. EST - Location
Lambeau Field - How to Watch
FOX, Fubo TV, NFL Sunday Ticket
Soppe: Human nature is to pivot off of priors in favor of the most recent visual, and, to me, that is what’s happening here. Two weeks ago, the Packers closed as a 1.5-point ‘dog in Chicago. Now, they are a two-point favorite against a 2-0 Saints team that has a playoff run in mind.
Yeah, this game is in Green Bay, but still, that’s quite the flip of opinion through just two games. The Packers are a below-average team when favored since the beginning of 2021 and have been vulnerable deep down the field over that stretch.
That’s scary against a team that has a proficient deep ball-throwing QB who throws to Chris Olave (fourth in air yards per game since entering the league) and Rashid Shaheed (40-plus-yard catch in five of his past seven games). Oh yeah, and Michael Thomas is back to earning targets at a high level.
Jordan Love has looked fine, and he is likely to get some reinforcements back this week, but let’s not get crazy. He has completed just 55.8% of his passes and has managed to see nearly 21% of his passes result in a touchdown. Build in regression for the Packers with the Saints exploiting a weak spot on the defensive end, and you could argue the wrong team is favored.
Pick: Saints moneyline (+110 at Caesars)
Blewis: The Packers’ Week 1 win over the Bears might not look as impressive now, given how bad Chicago has looked, and they blew a double-digit lead going into the fourth quarter against the Falcons last week.
Green Bay’s also due for a bit of regression offensively, as they have had zero turnovers and are tied for first in the NFL in percentage of red zone possessions ending with a touchdown at 83.33%.
They might have Aaron Jones back for this one, but the Packers are facing a Saints defense that has only allowed one touchdown this season, which was in garbage time.
I have lost a point in value here, as the total has dropped from 43.5 to 42.5 since Sunday, but I still like it enough to take it.
Pick: Under 42.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Denver Broncos vs. Miami Dolphins Prediction
- Spread
Dolphins -6 - Moneyline
Broncos +200, Dolphins -245 - Total
47.5 - Game Time
1 p.m. EST - Location
Hard Rock Stadium - How to Watch
CBS, Paramount Plus, Fubo TV, NFL Sunday Ticket
Bearman: This looks like a combination of a letdown spot and a sandwich game all in one. Buffalo is on tap next week, and Miami is coming off Sunday night’s win over the Patriots. But I also think the line is too low.
The Denver Broncos have proven to be just as bad as last year so far, despite Sean Payton taking over. They were underwhelming in their Week 1 home loss to the Las Vegas Raiders and then blew a big lead to the Commanders last week. That’s 0-2 at home to non-playoff teams, and now comes a trip to play the Dolphins at 1 p.m. EST in Miami.
Miami proved last week they can win in multiple ways, changing up the team’s offensive style after the Week 1 shootout in L.A. Top to bottom, they’re the better team here. The game at New England wasn’t as close as the final score, and this is the home opener, which should keep the Dolphins away from “letdown mode.”
Pick: Dolphins -6.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Katz: Last week was Jerry Jeudy’s first game back from a preseason hamstring strain. He only caught three of five targets for 25 yards. But it was also a very weird game with Marvin Mims and Brandon Johnson tallying multiple long receptions.
Look for the Broncos to get back to basics this week, and target their top receiver. Jeudy is another week healthier, and the game environment is excellent with the Broncos as touchdown underdogs in Miami.
Pick: Jerry Jeudy over 48.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Carolina Panthers vs. Seattle Seahawks Prediction
- Spread
Seahawks -4.5 - Moneyline
Panthers +180, Seahawks -218 - Total
42.5 - Game Time
4:05 p.m. EST - Location
Lumen Field - How to Watch
CBS, Paramount Plus, Fubo TV, NFL Sunday Ticket
Bearman: I am chalking Week 1 up to Seattle underestimating a depleted but better-than-most-thought Los Angeles Rams team. They showed how good they can be last week by going into Detroit and pushing the Lions around. Seattle had a big lead late, blew it, and then won anyhow in overtime.
MORE: NFL Survivor Picks Week 3 — Are the Chiefs, Cowboys, and Seahawks Good Options This Week?
Carolina has shown us nothing but poor offense this season, with only two total TDs on the season and one coming in the closing minutes of the team’s MNF loss to the Saints. And now Bryce Young is out.
Seattle wins this easily and should be considered in survivor pools.
Pick: Seahawks -6 (-110 at DraftKings)
Blewis: Bryce Young has been ruled out for this one, but with Andy Dalton in his place, I think that raises the floor of this Panthers offense.
This could backfire, as Dalton is much less mobile and will be playing behind a poor offensive line. However, Carolina gets an advantageous matchup against a Seahawks defense that has allowed the second-most yards per game.
Pick: Panthers team total over 16.5 (-122 at DraftKings)
Chicago Bears vs. Kansas City Chiefs Prediction
- Spread
Chiefs -12.5 - Moneyline
Bears +470, Chiefs -650 - Total
48 - Game Time
4:25 p.m. EST - Location
Arrowhead Stadium - How to Watch
FOX, Fubo TV, NFL Sunday Ticket
Blewis: Neither 12.5-point spread has moved this week, despite how popular each favorite will be in six-point teasers to get them at giving less than a touchdown.
Last week, I backed the Chiefs as short-favorites, but this week I’ll be fading them against the spread. For his career, Patrick Mahomes is 7-13-1 against the spread (ATS) as a double-digit favorite in the regular season.
Obviously, I don’t think there’s any chance of upset potential, but I could see the Bears utilizing Justin Fields more in the running game after he called out the offensive coaching staff this week.
Pick: Bears +12.5 (-108 at DraftKings)
Katz: There’s just too much smoke surrounding a Roschon Johnson takeover of the Bears backfield to ignore this line. Johnson carried the ball five times for 20 yards in Week 1 and four times for 32 yards in Week 2. He’s averaging a 40% snap share.
Johnson has already proven he doesn’t need much in the way of volume to surpass this number. If the reports of him seeing increased work are true, he could easily sail past 22.5 yards on volume alone. He’s also fully capable of doing it on two carries.
Pick: Roschon Johnson over 22.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Dallas Cowboys vs. Arizona Cardinals Prediction
- Spread
Cowboys -13 - Moneyline
Cowboys -675, Cardinals +490 - Total
43 - Game Time
4:25 p.m. EST - Location
State Farm Stadium - How to Watch
FOX, Fubo TV, NFL Sunday Ticket
Blewis: Unlike Weeks 1 and 2, I’m not expecting the Cardinals to have a lead at halftime.
I can’t stomach taking them against the spread after they rolled over in the second half against the Giants last week (still covered), but it seems too easy to take the Cowboys here. Pass on this one.
Katz: Zach Ertz has seen a whopping 18 targets on the season. He’s somehow turned those into 12 receptions for 77 yards.
Ertz has no juice left anymore. He’s a pure catch-and-fall-down tight end.
Just one of his receptions this season has gone for more than 14 yards, and it was last week against the Giants. In Week 1, against a more formidable Commanders defense, his longest reception was a mere six yards.
This week, the Cardinals face arguably the best defense in the NFL. Their quarterback, Josh Dobbs, has seen the Cowboys before. He made a start against them last season. In that start, he did not complete a pass to his TE Chigoziem Okonkwo for longer than 12 yards. That doesn’t mean Ertz will definitely be worse, but it certainly doesn’t hurt our case.
Look for Ertz to see a bunch of underneath targets, as usual. Even if he catches a bunch, he is unlikely to break off a long one.
Pick: Zach Ertz longest reception under 14.5 yards (-117 on BetRivers)
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Las Vegas Raiders Prediction
- Spread
Raiders -3 - Moneyline
Steelers +124, Raiders -148 - Total
43 - Game Time
8:20 p.m. EST - Location
Allegiant Stadium - How to Watch
NBC, Peacock
Blewis: This point spread has moved four points this week, even after the Raiders’ blowout loss to the Bills and the Steelers beating the Browns on Monday Night Football. Yet, it makes complete sense to me.
Pittsburgh needed two defensive touchdowns to beat Cleveland last week. After the Steelers’ starting offense scored a touchdown on every drive in the preseason, the narrative has completely flipped. So far this season, they’re only averaging 247 yards per game.
Josh Jacobs should have a bounce-back game against a Steelers run defense without Cam Heyward, allowing the Raiders to play ball-control football.
I got the under while it was at 43.5, but would still play it at this number. Keep fading the Steelers’ offense while you can, especially when they’re due for regression in turnover luck.
Pick: Under 43 (-110 at FanDuel)
Katz: I am not quite sure why Jimmy Garoppolo’s passing yardage line is so high. He’s thrown for 185 and 200 yards in each of his first two games. One was a narrow win. The other was a blowout loss. Regardless of game script, Garoppolo isn’t airing it out.
Now, his line is set at 40 yards higher than his best game so far. It’s a bit confusing. The under just seems so obvious. Perhaps I’m falling into a trap, but I have to recommend it.
Pick: Jimmy Garoppolo under 240.5 passing yards (-115 on BetMGM)
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Prediction
- Spread
Eagles -5 - Moneyline
Eagles -218, Buccaneers +180 - Total
45 - Game Time
7:15 p.m. EST - Location
Raymond James Stadium - How to Watch
ABC, ESPN+
Katz: There’s plenty more optimism surrounding Rachaad White after his admittedly much-improved Week 2 performance. But let’s not forget that he faced the Bears. You could probably run for 60 yards against the Bears.
In Week 1, White carried the ball 17 times for 40 yards against a Vikings run defense that just allowed D’Andre Swift to run for 175 yards. Now, White gets an Eagles run defense that completely stuffed Alexander Mattison and Rhamondre Stevenson in each of the first two weeks.
The Eagles have yet to allow a single run for 10+ yards, and Stevenson and Mattison combined to total just 53 yards against Philly over the first two weeks. White also has just one carry for 10+ yards on the season, and it came last week against the Bears for 13 yards. Essentially, this is a two-unit play on White split into two bets that I love.
I also am 100% buying a squeaky wheel game for A.J. Brown after his blowup on the sidelines with Jalen Hurts last week. Off the field, these two are super close. Hurts is going to get his guy in the end zone for the first time this week.
Picks: Rachaad White under 47.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings); Rachaad White longest rush under 11.5 yards (+100 at DraftKings); A.J. Brown anytime touchdown (+135 at DraftKings)
Los Angeles Rams vs. Cincinnati Bengals Prediction
- Spread
Bengals -2.5 - Moneyline
Rams +120, Bengals -142 - Total
43.5 - Game Time
8:15 p.m. EST - Location
Paycor Stadium - How to Watch
ESPN, ESPN2
Blewis: I grabbed Rams +6.5 on Sunday night, as that number seemed very surprising to me, regardless of Joe Burrow’s availability. Since then, the line dropped to as far as Bengals -2 but is now back up to -3.
MORE: Joe Burrow Injury Update — Sportsbooks Adjust Rams vs. Bengals Betting Lines
Burrow said he is preparing like he is going to go out and play on MNF, but it’s still too early to know one way or the other. Burrow’s questionable status for this game makes it difficult to make another pick beyond my Rams +6.5 bet, which is obviously no longer available.
Pick: Have Rams +6.5 (-110), will wait until we get more clarity on Burrow