Today’s NFL betting lines include five divisional home underdogs, zero double-digit favorites, and four totals below 40 points — so how should this impact your approach to making picks? Let’s dive right into our NFL Week 12 predictions, picks against the spread, over/unders, player props, and more.
NFL Week 12 Predictions and Picks
All odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook as of 9:30 am EST.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals Odds
- Spread
Steelers -2 - Moneyline
Steelers -130, Bengals +110 - Total
36.5
Blewis: I know the Bengals have had a long week to prepare for Jake Browning’s first start of the season, but I still like Pittsburgh here. The Steelers have been very lucky this season, but without Joe Burrow, I think they’re the better team.
The Bengals defense has been pretty bad this season, which has been flying under the radar. Through 11 weeks, they’re allowing the third-most yards per game, are 25th in EPA/play, and are tied for second-last in success rate.
Against a weak Bengals defense, and with Matt Canada no longer calling the plays, maybe we finally see a competent performance by this Steelers offense? If not, we can hope their defense wins them this game against a backup quarterback.
Pick: Steelers -1.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
Katz: I’m beginning to think Kenny Pickett might not be very good (that’s sarcasm, folks). Over his last four games, the most passing yards he’s thrown for in a game has been 160. The Steelers have been running their offense through Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris.
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This week, I expect the exact same thing against a Bengals offense without Burrow. The Bengals allow 4.6 yards per carry to running backs. They are a massive run funnel. The Steelers should be content to just pound the ball all game, limiting Pickett’s pass attempts and keeping him well short of this number.
Pick: Kenny Pickett under 198.5 passing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Carolina Panthers vs. Tennessee Titans Odds
- Spread
Titans -3.5 - Moneyline
Panthers +152, Titans -180 - Total
36.5
Bearman: There aren’t many good things to say about the Carolina Panthers, but if I could find one, it would be they keep things close vs. bad teams. Yes, they get blown out by the Dallases and Miamis of the world, but they almost beat Chicago and did beat Houston a few weeks back.
Tennessee is done, fading in a terrible AFC South division, and not a team I have any interest in laying 3.5 with. I don’t love the game, but I would take the points here, especially on the other side of three.
Pick: Panthers +3.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Katz: It has been a rough two weeks for Derrick Henry. Over his past two games, he’s run for 38 and 24 yards. But in those games, the Titans fell behind early. When the Titans are trailing, they run less and use Tyjae Spears more. Methinks that won’t be the case this week.
Things should be much smoother for the Titans offense at home against the lowly Panthers. The simple fact that the Titans should have neutral to positive game script against the worst team in the league is reason enough to like Henry this week. It’s a bonus that the Panthers are the second-worst run defense in the league, allowing 4.6 YPC and 114 yards per game to running backs.
In the Titans’ three wins this season, Henry has run for 80, 122, and 101 yards. I think the Titans win this week. If you want to ladder Henry at 75+, 100+, 125+, and even 150+, I don’t hate that idea either.
Also, for the past two years, I had a rule. Anytime Henry’s touchdown odds were -110 or better, it was an auto bet. Of course, with the Titans’ offensive situation much different this year, I lifted that rule.
We already covered all the reasons I like Henry this week. I am also very confident he will find the end zone. This opened at -110 and somehow moved to +105. That’s a gift. Take it.
Picks: Derrick Henry over 69.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings), Derrick Henry anytime touchdown (+105 at DraftKings)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Indianapolis Colts Odds
- Spread
Colts -2.5 - Moneyline
Buccaneers +128, Colts -152 - Total
45.5
Bearman: While on nobody’s radar, the Colts are quietly .500 and on the edge of the playoff race in the tight AFC. If you take a peek at Indianapolis’ remaining schedule, you’ll find only one opponent with a winning record — Week 18 vs. the Texans. Don’t be surprised if they’re still hanging around come January.
I’m out on the Bucs, who have lost five of six since a 3-1 start. As long as this stays under three, I’ll take the better team at home.
Pick: Colts -2.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Katz: Jonathan Taylor is definitely back. He’s the clear lead back and is dominating carries, completely relegating Zack Moss to a pure backup. But this is a really high number against a good run defense.
Since returning, Taylor has gone over 75 rushing yards in just one of his six games played. The Bucs allow 73 rushing yards per game to running backs, the eighth-fewest in the league. Backs average just 3.8 YPC against them. On the season, Taylor is averaging 3.8 YPC.
The way to beat the Bucs is through the air. Taylor can easily see 20 carries and still not get over this number.
Pick: Jonathan Taylor under 80.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
New England Patriots vs. New York Giants Odds
- Spread
Patriots -4 - Moneyline
Patriots -210, Giants +176 - Total
34
Bearman: This took me about four seconds to hop all over the under at 34 when it hit the board on Sunday night. This is a matchup of the two worst offenses in football, with the Patriots averaging 14.1 PPG and the Giants 13.5, even after scoring a season-high 31 last week vs. Washington.
Mac Jones or Bailey Zappe on one side, Tommy DiVito on the other … doesn’t matter who starts. The first team to 10 wins.
Pick: Under 34 (-115 at FanDuel)
Blewis: Bill Belichick might’ve lost his fastball, but I still like him going against inexperienced quarterbacks. The Patriots have had a very difficult schedule of opposing quarterbacks, but they should be able to feast on DeVito.
The Giants scored 31 points last week; only seven of them weren’t scored in garbage time or following a Commanders turnover. Although either Patriots QB is certainly turnover-prone, I’m not expecting the Giants offense to capitalize off six turnovers for the second week in a row or anywhere close.
This Patriots defense won’t remind you of any of their previous units under Belichick, but the Giants with DeVito were averaging 11 PPG before last week’s win over the Commanders — and this is also inflated by 17 garbage time points against Dallas.
I’m isolating their team total under here just because I don’t trust the Patriots enough to cover as a road favorite.
Pick: Giants under 15.5 (-122 at FanDuel)
New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons Odds
- Spread
Saints -1.5 - Moneyline
Saints -126, Falcons +108 - Total
42.5
Bearman: I know it’s not high praise, but I still think the Saints are the best team in the NFC South. I bet them before the season, and despite major inconsistencies and a 5-5 record, they have a one-game lead over the Falcons (and Bucs) in the division.
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A win here could open up distance coming down the stretch. The Falcons are going back to Desmond Ridder at QB, which doesn’t give me any confidence, as they were awful with him before.
I’ll lay the small number with the better team here, and the game being in Atlanta doesn’t bother me since New Orleans has won in their home-away-from-home each of the last five trips to the ATL.
Pick: Saints -1.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans Odds
- Spread
Jaguars -1.5 - Moneyline
Jaguars -122, Texans +104 - Total
48.5
Blewis: Is the right team favored here? This line indicates that on a neutral field, Jacksonville would be favored by at least a field goal, which seems off, in my opinion.
For the season, C.J. Stroud has been outplaying Trevor Lawrence, and as of late, he has been playing perhaps the best football of any NFL quarterback. Stroud has also been significantly better at home than on the road — I mean just look at these splits:
- Stroud at home: 13 TDs, 4 INTs, 339.0 YPG, 9.26 YPA, 108.1 QB rating
- Stroud on the road: 4 TDs, 1 INTs, 253.4 YPG, 7.37 YPA, 89.9 QB rating
I think these are two close to evenly-matched teams, but with Houston having home-field advantage, they should be favored.
Pick: Texans +1.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Los Angeles Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals Odds
- Spread
Rams -2.5 - Moneyline
Rams -142, Cardinals +120 - Total
45.5
Blewis: The last time this Rams offense was at full strength, they put up 26 points against this Cardinals defense that was healthier than they are now. In that game, Matthew Stafford averaged 9.4 YPA, and Kyren Williams ran for 158 yards on 7.9 YPC.
With a fully healthy offense, I’m expecting the Rams to put up a lot of points against an atrocious Cardinals defense.
Pick: Rams over 23.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Cleveland Browns vs. Denver Broncos Odds
- Spread
Broncos -1.5 - Moneyline
Browns +100, Broncos -118 - Total
37
Bearman: Combined, these two teams are 8-2 over the last five weeks. And both are winning with defense, with the Browns bringing in the top defense in terms of yards allowed and the Broncos looking nothing like the team that gave up 70 to Miami earlier this season.
You know what I love to do with a defensive battle — DTR at QB for the Browns, and Russ still not cooking in Denver? The under.
Pick: Under 36.5 (-118 at FanDuel)
Katz: My jaw almost dropped when I saw this line. Last week, we just barely cashed on Dorian Thompson-Robinson’s passing yards under by 2.5 yards. That was against a weaker Steelers pass defense than the Broncos have and in a game where he attempted 43 passes.
This week, DTR gets a much tougher opponent, and he is not going to throw more than 40 passes. The Broncos have been much-improved against the pass over the past month. Meanwhile, they still struggle against the run. We should see a lot of Jerome Ford and not a lot of Thompson-Robinson throwing the ball. With nine more yards to play with than last week, I love this under.
Pick: Dorian Thompson-Robinson under 176.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders Odds
- Spread
Chiefs -9.5 - Moneyline
Chiefs -500, Raiders +385 - Total
43.5
Blewis: Before they blew a 10-point lead, the Chiefs defense did an incredible job of shutting down Jalen Hurts and the Eagles offense last week. Now, they’ll be facing Aidan O’Connell, who, for the most part, has looked like a rookie quarterback drafted in the fourth round.
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I don’t have much confidence in the Raiders offense here, but I do think their defense can prevent the Chiefs from putting up a ton of points. For the season, they’re now 14th in EPA/play and 16th in DVOA.
Even if I have little faith in their offense, I do think their running game can slow this game down a bit and keep the Chiefs offense off the field. For the season, the Chiefs are allowing the 28th-most rushing yards per attempt. This was on full display last week when D’Andre Swift averaged 6.3 yards per carry.
Pick: Under 43.5 (-112 at DraftKings)
Buffalo Bills vs. Philadelphia Eagles Odds
- Spread
Eagles -3 - Moneyline
Bills +136, Eagles -162 - Total
48.5
Blewis: I’m going to need to see two good performances in a row by this Eagles defense, most notably against the pass, to fully buy in. While limiting Patrick Mahomes to 177 passing yards on just 4.1 yards per attempt is impressive no matter how you slice it, they got bailed out by a number of drops from the Chiefs wide receivers.
Last week, the Eagles weren’t afraid of any Chiefs pass catcher outside of Travis Kelce — that game plan won’t work against the Bills, who have more depth around Stefon Diggs.
Pick: Bills over 23.5 (+100 at DraftKings)
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