Another week, another NFL Sunday slate with very few notable games. But that doesn’t mean we aren’t going to be betting on these games or giving out picks.
So, here are our NFL Week 11 predictions, picks against the spread, over/unders, player props, and more for every game today.
NFL Week 11 Predictions and Picks
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Los Angeles Chargers vs. Green Bay Packers Odds
- Spread
Chargers -3 - Moneyline
Chargers -155, Packers +135 - Total
43.5
Katz: This number is awfully low for a guy playing 50% of the snaps and seeing 8-10 carries a game. AJ Dillon may not be the most efficient runner, but if he sees that same workload again, he only needs to average a hair over 3.0 yards per carry to reach this number.
Dillon has gone over this number in all but two games this season. The Los Angeles Chargers allow 4.1 yards per carry to opposing running backs. Unless they completely stomp the Green Bay Packers and force them to abandon the run early in the process, there should be enough work for Dillon behind Aaron Jones to easily reach 30 yards on the ground.
Pick: AJ Dillon Over 25.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Katz: This is not the type of prop I usually bet, but I really like Austin Ekeler to have a huge game this week. For starters, the Packers really struggle at defending the run. They just surrendered a 100-yard rushing effort to Jaylen Warren while also letting Najee Harris run for 82 yards himself.
On the season, the Packers are allowing 105 rushing yards per game and 4.1 yards per carry to running backs.
Additionally, they haven’t been great at defending backs in the passing game. Their opponents throw to the running back 23.6% of the time. Ekeler is already one of the best receiving backs in the league and commands a higher target share than the average back.
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As if that isn’t reason enough, there’s also the matter of the Chargers being depleted at WR and Keenan Allen being banged up. All of this points to heavy Ekeler usage. He should see 12-14 carries and 6+ targets. A big game is inbound.
Pick: Austin Ekeler Over 96.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Odds
- Spread
Jaguars -6.5 - Moneyline
Titans +260, Jaguars -320 - Total
39.5
Blewis: Was last week’s 34-3 loss to the San Francisco 49ers an aberration for the Jacksonville Jaguars? Or were they not as good as their 6-2 record indicated? I think it’s somewhere in the middle.
So far this season, the Jaguars have been underperforming offensively and overperforming on defense. Despite the lofty expectations for this unit, the Jaguars are just 19th in yards per game, 19th in DVOA, and 23rd in EPA/play. Meanwhile, defensively, they’re top 10 in EPA/play, success rate, and DVOA.
After a horrible performance against the Niners in which he had three turnovers, I think Trevor Lawrence bounces back here against one of the worst passing defenses in the NFL and a unit that generated the fewest takeaways this season. I don’t love it at seven, however, so I’ll tease it with another divisional home favorite.
Pick: Jaguars -1 and Lions -1.5 in a 6-point tease (-120 at DraftKings)
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Miami Dolphins Odds
- Spread
Dolphins -14 - Moneyline
Raiders +700, Dolphins -1000 - Total
45.5
Blewis: Hard to believe this spread was under 10 points earlier this week, but after moving up a few points in the Miami Dolphins‘ direction, it now makes more sense. The Las Vegas Raiders are 2-0 under interim head coach Antonio Pierce, but those were two home wins against Tommy DeVito and Zach Wilson. Now, they’ll be traveling to Miami to play a Dolphins team coming off its bye that has beat up on bad opponents all season.
The point spread is now too high for my liking, and I would feel especially bad betting it when I missed out on all of the value, but I found another way to back the Dolphins here.
I grabbed the over on their first-half total of 14.5 at FanDuel (-110) when it was 16.5 at the same time at DraftKings. The Dolphins are averaging 22.5 first-half points at home this season and have cleared this total in each of those four games. Those were also the four games they were favored the most in all season, which correlates with this matchup as well.
This is my way of betting on the Dolphins without having to sweat a backdoor cover.
Pick: Dolphins Over 14.5 1H points (-110 at FanDuel)
Dallas Cowboys vs. Carolina Panthers Odds
- Spread
Cowboys -10.5 - Moneyline
Cowboys -600, Panthers +450 - Total
42.5
Bearman: From one mismatch to another, the Dallas Cowboys could get used to playing bad teams. That’s what they have feasted on this year, defeating the Giants twice, Jets, Patriots, Chargers, and Los Angeles Rams. They should have no problem with Carolina either, but laying 10 on the road gets you in trouble in the NFL.
To me, the safer play is to isolate a bad Carolina Panthers offense against one of the better defenses in football. Carolina’s team total is at 14.5 — just above that magic number of 14. This is the same Panthers team that scored 15, 13, and 13 the last three weeks against defenses nowhere in the same neighborhood as that of the Cowboys.
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The last time the Panthers scored two offensive touchdowns in a game was mid-October when the Dolphins forgot to show up in the first half.
Pick: Panthers team total Under 14.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Blewis: The last time the Dallas Cowboys were double-digit favorites on the road, they lost outright to the Cardinals. I’m not predicting an upset win here, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Carolina Panthers keep this under 11 points.
As much as Bryce Young has struggled, he is far superior to DeVito, who the Cowboys faced last week, and the Panthers will be coming off 10 days of rest after just playing on Thursday Night Football.
It’s also a little suspicious that this line isn’t higher, especially considering the Cowboys are coming off a 32-point win in which they put up 640 yards of offense and averaged 8.3 yards per play.
Pick: Panthers +10.5 (-110 at ESPN BET)
Katz: There’s no denying Rico Dowdle has outplayed Tony Pollard this season. And there have been rumblings that he will continue to eat into Pollard’s workload if Pollard can’t turn it around.
The Cowboys are double-digit road favorites in Carolina. They should experience positive game script throughout, and there is serious blowout potential here. There is a chance Dowdle gets the entire fourth quarter to himself.
Even so, I don’t think he’ll need it. Dowdle can hit this number on 4-6 carries while the game is in question. The Panthers are terrible against the run. They’re allowing 118 yards on the ground and 4.6 yards per carry to opposing backs. Dowdle is averaging 4.5 yards per carry on the season. Given the projected game script and the opponent, Dowdle is very likely to reach 30+ rushing yards.
Pick: Rico Dowdle over 27.5 rushing yards (-113 at Caesars)
Arizona Cardinals vs. Houston Texans Odds
- Spread
Texans -5.5 - Moneyline
Cardinals +200, Texans -240 - Total
47.5
Blewis: C.J. Stroud has been on an absolute tear in recent weeks, as he is not only the runaway favorite for OROY but has also immersed himself into the MVP conversation. Today, he gets a matchup against an Arizona Cardinals pass defense that is the worst he has faced all season, as they’re 29th in EPA and 31st in success rate.
Stroud also has been a much better quarterback at home than on the road this season. At home, he is averaging 339.8 yards per game compared to 253.4 per road contest, and his yard-per-attempt figure is nearly two yards higher per throw at home as well.
This might be a really public play, but it sets up as a smash spot for Stroud, who is clearly in a rhythm right now.
Pick: C.J. Stroud Over 262.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns Odds
- Spread
Browns -2 - Moneyline
Steelers +105, Browns -125 - Total
33.5
Bearman: My apologies for the loss on the Pittsburgh Steelers‘ team total Under last week — the first time that bet had lost in weeks. Plus, it lost on a late field goal in the game, as the Steelers were icing the game. There’s no reason to back down because of that. Plus, the Steelers now face one of the best defenses in the league in that of the Cleveland Browns.
Pick: Steelers Under 16.5 (-122 at DraftKings)
Katz: We’ve seen Dorian Thompson-Robinson make one start this season. It was the most negative game script imaginable, as the Browns lost 28-3 to the Ravens. In that game, DTR attempted 36 passes yet threw for just 121 yards.
Against the Steelers, the Browns’ defense should be able to do enough to keep them in the game. Plus, the Steelers are more vulnerable on the ground than through the air. Between the run-heavy game plan and DTR’s inexperience, I don’t think he even gets to 150.
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My other pick positively correlates with the DTR bet. Since getting over his ankle sprain, Jerome Ford has played 64% of the snaps in each of his past two games. Last week, against the Ravens, he ran it 17 times for 107 yards.
The Steelers allow 111 rushing yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry to running backs. I’m expecting another 20+ carries for Ford. Even if he’s inefficient, the volume should be there for him to at least get to 50 on the ground.
Picks: Dorian Thompson-Robinson Under 167.5 passing yards (-115 at DraftKings), Jerome Ford Over 48.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
New York Giants vs. Washington Commanders Odds
- Spread
Commanders -8.5 - Moneyline
Giants +360, Commanders -450 - Total
38.5
Bearman: You have to read this column every week to know where I am headed here. I would probably play this Under as low as 33, and I for sure will take the Under at 36.5. These teams met a month ago with QB Tyrod Taylor under center for the New York Giants and combined for 21 points.
The offense has been an even worse train wreck with DeVito back there, and they only got to 17 against the Cowboys’ fourth string last week. My only concern is a poor Washington defense, but again, they held the Giants to 14 with Taylor under center.
Pick: Under 37.5 (-120 at DraftKings)
Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions Odds
- Spread
Lions -7.5 - Moneyline
Bears +320, Lions -400 - Total
47.5
Blewis: The line has dropped quite a bit since it has been reported that Justin Fields will be back, and there has been a lot of sharp money on the Chicago Bears.
In two games since acquiring Montez Sweat, the Bears have allowed just 514 yards of offense. The perception is they’re much improved defensively, and while they do have an underrated run defense, those two games came against the Saints and Panthers, two far inferior offenses to the Detroit Lions.
The Lions, to a similar extent to the Eagles, can beat you in a variety of ways offensively and have been a home juggernaut this season, averaging nearly 30 points per game.
Two of the Bears’ three wins this season have come on Thursday Night Football (one of which was against the Panthers). Their other win was against the Josh McDaniels/Brian Hoyer-led Raiders. I still think they’re one of the five worst teams in the NFL and that there has been an overcorrection with this line.
Pick: Lions -7.5 (-110 at ESPN BET)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. San Francisco 49ers Odds
- Spread
49ers -13.5 - Moneyline
Buccaneers +550, 49ers -800 - Total
41.5
Blewis: The San Francisco 49ers were back at full strength last week, and they quickly reminded us that before their three-game losing streak and injuries to Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams, they had a strong case for being the best team in the league.
I find this Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense to be a bit overrated because their metrics are inflated by performances against underwhelming offenses in the Bears, Saints, Falcons, and Titans, which they held to an average of 12 points per game. In games against top-10 offenses, that number is more than double. When the 49ers have been completely healthy, no team has held them to under 30 points this season.
Instead of taking the game Over here, I’m going to isolate the 49ers’ team total.
Pick: 49ers Over 26.5 (-120 at BetMGM)
Soppe: The 49ers are heavy favorites this week, and that inherently comes with some volume risk when it comes to evaluating the passing game.
That, along with a healthy group of pass catchers, is really all I need to fade George Kittle. This season, in games in which Samuel has played, Kittle has seen 4.1 targets per game (down from 9.0 in the two games Samuel sat with the shoulder injury). For his career, the tight end averages 9.8 yards per target, putting us in a spot to do some simple multiplication:
- 4.1 targets x 9.8 yards per target = 40.2 yards
It’s never that easy, but in a game where we expect San Francisco to take its foot off the gas in an effort to keep its offense at full strength with a short work week ahead (at Seattle on Thursday night), this could easily be one of those dud games from Kittle.
Pick: George Kittle Under 44.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)
New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills Odds
- Spread
Bills -7.5 - Moneyline
Jets +320, Bills -400 - Total
39.5
Blewis: As much as the Buffalo Bills defense has struggled in recent weeks, a matchup against Wilson is almost as good as it gets, which is saying something with the number of backup quarterbacks being thrust into starting roles.
On the other side, the Bills are 1-2 in their last three games against the New York Jets dating back to last season, and Josh Allen’s struggles are a big reason why. Since 2022 vs. the Jets, Allen has averaged 196 passing yards per game on 5.8 yards per attempt and five interceptions. Each of those games had a combined score of less than 40 points as well.
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Unders are a combined 13-6 in Jets/Bills games this season, and that’s the direction I’m going in with this pick.
Pick: Under 40 (-110 at FanDuel)
Bearman: So people want to lay seven with a Bills team that is second in the NFL with 18 giveaways, is averaging 20.5 points per game during a 2-4 run, and is facing a team that has one of the better defenses in the league?
No thanks. I’ll hold my nose, but I’ll take the Jets and seven points here and hope they don’t lose 13-3.
Pick: Jets +7 (-110 at FanDuel)
Soppe: I’m as guilty as anyone when it comes to overthinking things, so I’m going to pat myself on the back for keeping it simple this week.
The Bills have the fourth-highest opponent rush rate over expectation this season, and I think that’s a sticky trend. They allow the fourth-highest yards per carry this season, and by running the ball, opponents shorten the game and thus magnify any Allen mistakes that should occur.
The ineptitude of the Jets offense is why this number is lower than may seem reasonable. Due to the downside of Wilson and company, Hall has cleared this number just twice despite flirting with 5.0 yards per carry.
I understand the risk, but with the Bills seemingly unable to overcome their defensive injuries and New York’s desire to bleed the clock in this matchup, Hall is a good bet to clear the 15 carries he has averaged over his past five games and cruise past this number.
Pick: Breece Hall Over 56.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams Odds
- Spread
Rams -2 - Moneyline
Seahawks +105, Rams -125 - Total
46.5
Blewis: The Los Angeles Rams beat the Seattle Seahawks by 27 points on the road in Week 1, and that was without Cooper Kupp. For this matchup, they will have Kupp and Matthew Stafford back after a one-game absence, and they’ll be facing a Seahawks defense that I think is overrated courtesy of their easy schedule.
After a three-game stretch against the Giants, an injured Joe Burrow and the Bengals, and the Cardinals in which they allowed just 10 PPG, the Browns, Ravens, and Commanders scored a combined 83 points against Seattle. For the season, Seattle is just 20th in DVOA and 25th in yards per game allowed.
This Rams defense is even worse than Seattle’s, but I have an easier time trusting Stafford at home than Geno Smith, who has been quite erratic this season on the road.
Pick: Rams +1 (-110 at FanDuel)
Soppe: Higbee caught a career-best 72 passes last season, and not a single one of those grabs is going to count against you in Week 11. Betting props means constantly updating what you “know,” and we have over a month of proof that the Rams aren’t interested in getting their tight end involved since Kupp returned. Higbee has played five games since the All-Pro came back …
- Week 8 at DAL: 5 catches for 45 yards
- Other four games, total: 5 catches for 45 yards
The Cowboys boast an elite defense and were able to greatly limit the productivity of Kupp and Puka Nacua. In fact, that duo turned 17 targets into just 64 yards in Dallas. Stafford and his star receivers couldn’t get on track, and thus, his hand was forced to feed Higbee.
That’s the exception, not the rule. Remove that Cowboys game, and Higbee has caught just 58.3% of his targets this season. The limited efficiency along with a lack of stable volume (that Dallas game is the only one since Kupp returned in which Higbee earned more than three targets), makes Higbee a fad of the highest order.
Pick: Tyler Higbee Under 28.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)
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