NFL free agency is not far away, and some intriguing names look set to be available on the open market in 2025. However, with limited star power and sometimes even starting-caliber options available at some positions, we could see a lot of competition from needy teams. That could then drive up the prices that those teams are willing to pay for the top-tier free agents this offseason.
With that in mind, we examine which NFL players could be in line for the biggest free agent contracts this offseason.
Sam Darnold | Quarterback
- Potential Contract Value: $35-40 million per year
- Potential Contract Length: 3-4 years
Predicting Sam Darnold’s potential contract in free agency is tough because the landing spots are somewhat limited. There will always be teams willing to take a chance on a quarterback, so he should get a solid contract in terms of signing for three of four years. However, the overall value and the guarantees are much harder to project.
Based on performance, Spotrac has Darnold projected for a $40 million-a-year contract, and our QB+ metrics indicate he is worth that. In 2024, Darnold finished as the QB12 in the regular season. A deal with an average annual value (AAV) of $40 million would only put Darnold tied for 16th with Aaron Rodgers.
The problem for Darnold is that we are talking about a one-year sample size of success against multiple years of struggles. That is somewhat similar to the situation we saw with Baker Mayfield, who signed a deal worth $33.3 million per year with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after a successful 2023 season.
Mayfield’s contract with the Buccaneers could set the framework for what we might see for Darnold. Mayfield’s deal was a three-year contract worth $100 million in total, with $40 million guaranteed at signing. Essentially, Mayfield’s contract was a one-year deal worth $40 million in cash, with the Buccaneers having the option to eat $23 million in dead money to move on after that season.
With the salary cap jump entering 2025, Darnold’s numbers should see around a 10-20% jump in value. That would put the overall value at around $35-37.5 million a year, with $45 million guaranteed. Any team signing Darnold will likely put similar protections in after the first year in case Darnold regresses when away from Kevin O’Connell and Minnesota’s system.
Russell Wilson | Quarterback
- Potential Contract: $30-35 million per year
- Potential Contract Length: 2-3 years
Given that Geno Smith essentially replaced Russell Wilson in Seattle, it seems fitting that Wilson’s next contract should be similar to Smith’s. Based on the salary cap growth since Smith signed that deal, there will likely be a slight inflation in value, but for all intents and purposes, it should be a very similar deal.
Wilson finished as the 17th-ranked QB in our metrics two spots below Smith, who finished 15th. Of course, Wilson also finished ranked above players getting paid significantly more than Smith (Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, and Kirk Cousins) and one spot below Kyler Murray ($46.1 million per year).
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Spotrac projects Wilson’s deal to be in the $38.5 million per year region across two seasons, using Smith, Rodgers, Stafford, and Cousins as comparables. This is where things get tricky because Wilson is more of a proven asset than Smith but is a lesser player when signing this deal than Cousins, Rodgers, and Stafford were.
Smith’s deal had a base of $25 million a year and a chance to earn escalators. Wilson’s deal should start at between $30 and $35 million per year, with incentives and escalators similar to Smith’s. Any team looking to sign Wilson should give him the opportunity to earn $40-45 million a year with those incentives and escalators.
The guarantees in Wilson’s contract will be interesting after a mixed few seasons in Denver and Pittsburgh. He is not coming off a peak season like Mayfield and Darnold were but has a better pedigree than those players. Therefore, something along the lines of $40-50 million in guarantees makes sense on a two- or three-year deal.
Tee Higgins | Wide Receiver
- Potential Contract: $25-30 million per year
- Potential Contract Length: 3-5 years
Tee Higgins’ contract value may arguably be the toughest to figure out of any player this offseason. Chances are we may have to wait another year for the answer as the Cincinnati Bengals look set to franchise tag him, which will give him a value of just over $26 million for the year.
There is no doubt that Higgins is a talented wide receiver. He is coming off a 10-touchdown season in which he averaged 75.9 yards per game and a career-high 6.1 receptions per game. Higgins has two 1,000-yard seasons, is averaging almost seven touchdowns per season, and has three years with over 70 receptions.
There are two main problems for Higgins regarding his contract value. Firstly, he has missed 10 games due to injury in the last two seasons combined. Missing more than 25% of the games in the last two years is less than ideal when looking for more than $25 million a year. The second issue is that Higgins’ value as a WR1 is somewhat of a projection, having played second fiddle to Ja’Marr Chase for the last four years.
The injury element is the bigger issue, as we saw talented secondary wide receivers Jaylen Waddle ($28.25 million) and DeVonta Smith ($25 million) get paid well last offseason. However, both of those played more games than Higgins in their previous two seasons when they signed those deals and were coming off 1,000-yard seasons.
There is some salary-cap inflation to consider for Higgins, but you could argue that his base value should be slightly below Waddle and Smith to begin with. The franchise tag value of $26.1 million is probably a fairly fair valuation for Higgins for a multi-year deal.
As a free agent, teams would struggle to know how much to commit to Higgins in terms of years and guaranteed money. Both Smith and Waddle got around $35 million in guarantees on a three-year deal. That is about what teams should look to offer Higgins if he were a free agent in 2025.
A three-year deal would also allow Higgins to be a No. 1 somewhere for a couple of years and prove he deserves to be paid more than $30 million a year with his next contract.
Chris Godwin | Wide Receiver
- Potential Contract: $20-25 million per year
- Potential Contract Length: 2-4 years
This offseason is tough for Chris Godwin, who is about to hit free agency after a season-ending injury in 2024.
He will be 29 years old when the 2025 season starts and entered last year on the back of three straight 1,000-yard seasons. All the signs were there for Godwin to press for a $25+ million-per-year contract, but the injury knocks at least 10% off that in our projections.
Much like with Higgins, there is an element of projection with Godwin. Playing alongside Mike Evans has meant that Godwin only averages 4.875 touchdowns per season. He has three seasons with more than five touchdowns, although he was on pace to set a career-high in 2024 with five touchdowns through the first seven games.
Godwin is an extremely reliable receiver who can operate out of the slot. While he does not have the gaudy single-year numbers of Copper Kupp in 2021, Godwin is the more consistent of the two. Entering 2024, he had only missed five games in the previous three seasons. There is a case to be made that Godwin should be matching Kupp’s $26.7 million-per-year AAV.
Godwin has an intriguing choice to make. Does he try playing on a short-term deal in the hope of proving he is 100% healthy in 2025 and then having the chance to earn more next year, or does he take the security of a three- or four-year deal, even if the value is slightly below what we might expect if he had played a full season in 2024?
A smart contract for both sides would be a three- or four-year contract worth a base of $20 million per year, with around $25 million fully guaranteed at signing. Incentives or escalators based on playing time and performance could then push the AAV closer to $25 million a year across the life of the deal.
Ronnie Stanley | Offensive Tackle
- Potential Contract: $17.5-20 million per year
- Potential Contract Length: 1-2 years
After a tough few years in terms of his health, Ronnie Stanley played a 17-game season in 2024 and proved just why he remains one of the best left tackles in the NFL. Having missed 36 games in the previous four seasons, Stanley played on a reduced deal in 2024 worth just $7.5 million.
However, his talent deserves far more than being paid as the 34th-best tackle in the league. The injury history is a concern, and that will limit either the length of the deal or the structure in terms of guarantees, but we have seen tackles play at a high level into their mid-30s.
A contract of around $20 million a year would put Stanley among the top 15 highest-paid players at the position and would be a bargain for his talent if not for the health concerns. A contract that may make sense for both Stanley and the team is one with a base in the $17.5 million a year range with playing time incentives to get him close to or over the $20 million a year mark.
With the Baltimore Ravens not having an abundance of cap space, we may see Stanley tak3 a slight discount to help the team he has played for his entire career. That is somewhat the explanation for his contract last offseason but also combined with the health concerns.
Trey Smith | Guard
- Potential Contract: $17.5-20 million per year
- Potential Contract Length: 4-5 years
Trey Smith has the potential this offseason to set a new standard when it comes to AAV at the guard position. However, the more likely outcome is that Smith will end up coming in just below Landon Dickerson and Chris Lindstrom, who are the only two guards to have topped $20 million per year.
Smith is an intriguing player to evaluate because he gets grouped with the excellent pairing of Creed Humphrey and Joe Thuney on the interior of the Kansas City Chiefs’ offensive line. However, Smith is a step behind that duo as a pass blocker, ranking below them in most metrics. He does rank higher than both when it comes to run blocking, though.
The guard position is extremely hard to judge in isolation because of its positioning in the line. Smith has been credited with 1.41 QB hurries allowed per game over the past two seasons but only 0.06 sacks allowed per game. His hurries are slightly above the other players at the top of the guard pay scale, while his sacks allowed are at the lower end.
Ultimately, Smith is likely to get a contract in the four- or five-year range for just under $20 million a year. However, as the premier free agent at the position, there is a chance he could see that value rise if two teams get into a bidding war for his services. It would not be a major surprise if Smith ended up getting a deal over $20 million a year and potentially breaking through Dickerson’s $21 million AAV.
Khalil Mack | EDGE
- Potential Contract: $20-25 million per year
- Potential Contract Length: 1-2 years
Judging what to pay Khalil Mack as a general manager this offseason will be tough. In 2023, Mack had an incredible year. He finished with 17 sacks and 74 tackles, with an incredible rate of converting pressures (36) to sacks (47.2%). However, in 2024, those numbers dropped to six sacks, 39 tackles, and a pressure-to-sack conversion rate of 27.3%.
That contrast between the two seasons is going to be a tough thing to work through. If you average it out, then it comes out as 12 sacks, 56.5 tackles, and a 41.4% pressure-to-sack ratio.
Let’s do a couple of comparisons over the last two years. Myles Garrett (AAV $25 million) has averaged 14 sacks, 44.5 tackles, and a 34.6% pressure-to-sack conversion rate. T.J. Watt (AAV $28 million) has averaged 15.25 sacks, 64.5 tackles, and a 38.9% pressure-to-sack ratio.
Based on those numbers, Mack is still a very effective pass rusher. He does not impact the quarterback as much as those other elite names in terms of raw pressure or sack numbers, but over the last two years, he has been as impactful in terms of tackles and better at getting to the quarterback when he gets pressure.
That ability to disrupt the game in multiple ways is why Mack should still get upward of $20 million a year as a free agent. However, he only got $19.2 million to remain with the Los Angeles Chargers last year after coming off that elite season in 2023. The salary cap increase will help, as will the relative weakness of the 3-4 EDGE options available in free agency this year.
Josh Sweat | EDGE
- Potential Contract: $17.5-20 million per year
- Potential Contract Length: 3-4 years
Josh Sweat could not have finished his 2024 season in a better way than with his Super Bowl 59 performance. In a game where he could have been the Super Bowl MVP, Sweat had 2.5 sacks and six tackles. The problem is that the inconsistent regular season stats do not reflect those numbers from the Super Bowl (possibly because he took advantage of rushing against a guard playing left tackle in the Super Bowl).
Across the 2024 regular season, Sweat had just eight sacks and 16 pressures in 16 games. While a pressure-to-sack rate of 50% is incredible, both numbers are too low to create real excitement. That conversion rate is intriguing because, in 2023, it sat at 17.6% after Sweat had a career-high 37 pressures.
Those inconsistencies over the last two seasons will cause headaches for people evaluating what to pay Sweat. One year, he had a high pressure rate with a low conversion rate, and in the following season, he had a low pressure rate with a high conversion rate.
Optimistic evaluators will say that you have a potentially destructive force for opposing passing games if he combines the two. Pessimistic evaluators will say you have the makings of a player who could be a non-factor if you get the worst of both worlds. Therefore, Sweat’s value this offseason will be in the eye of the beholder.
Ultimately, at least one team will be willing to bet on the potential, which means Sweat should have a solid floor of around $17.5 million a year. That Super Bowl performance may push him up closer to $20 million, and if you get two or three optimistic teams, then an AAV of $22.5 million per year is not out of the question.
Chase Young | EDGE
- Potential Contract: $12.5-15 million per year
- Potential Contract Length: 2-4 years
It has been a strange path to this point for Chase Young. After winning the Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2020, he played just 19 more games for Washington before being traded to San Francisco in the final year of his rookie deal. Those three seasons saw him finish with a combined nine sacks heading into last offseason.
After those struggles on his rookie deal, Young spent the 2024 season in New Orleans on a one-year deal. He finished the season with 5.5 sacks from 34 pressures, a forced fumble, three passes defended, 21 QB hits, and 31 tackles. Outside of the QB hits, those numbers do not blow you away, but they are solid numbers and make him the best all-around 4-3 EDGE rusher in this year’s free-agency group.
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The pass rush position is intriguing when it comes to contracts because their impact on opposing offenses can be devastating, as we saw in Super Bowl 59. There will be some upside baked into any contract for Young, having been the second-overall pick in 2020 and having an impressive rookie season.
It would not be a major surprise to see Young get a similarly valued contract to last year. The quarterback hits and the lack of other elite 4-3 pass rushers in this free-agency group will potentially push that value up to around $15 million a year. Having played 33 games over the last two years, any major concerns over his playing time should be reduced, so any incentives or escalators will likely be performance-based.
Osa Odighizuwa | Defensive Tackle
- Potential Contract: $18-20 million per year
- Potential Contract Length: 2-4 years
Osa Odighizuwa is part of an intriguing defensive tackle group this offseason. Having played 78% of the snaps last season and 67 games over the last four years, he has a tremendous motor. However, the per-snap numbers are lacking against some of the role players available this offseason.
That will be the tough element for teams to balance. Do you want a player who can play 75% of the snaps but will have a relatively diluted impact in terms of per-snap impact, or do you want to invest in a couple of role players who can potentially combine to be more effective overall?
There is no doubt that Odighizuwa is a talented player who deserves a big contract, but it is tough to judge where it will come from. His numbers are not at the level of peak Jonathan Allen, who is averaging $18 million a year, so it is hard to make a case that he should be earning more than that, even with salary cap inflation.
The counterpoint is that we just saw Alim McNeil get $24.25 million per year for numbers that do not come close to Odighizuwa’s. There is certainly value in having a consistent presence up the middle who can hit the quarterback as much as he does. Odighizuwa getting a contract value of $15-17.5 million a year will be no more surprising than if he gets one in excess of $20 million a year.
Zack Baun | Linebacker
- Potential Contract: $10-15 million per year
- Potential Contract Length: 2-4 years
There are a few cases this year where NFL teams will have to assess the value of a single good year in a career of mediocrity. Zack Baun is one of those, as he comes off a 151-tackle season with five forced fumbles and 3.5 sacks. In one year, Baun posted higher numbers in all those categories than in his three years in New Orleans combined.
Teams will be in an interesting spot when it comes to signing Baun. Trying to find contract comparisons for him is tough to do, but the ceiling is the $20 million per year that Roquan Smith currently earns. A more realistic area is probably the $10-15 million range where Frankie Luvu, Zaire Franklin, Patrick Queen, and Matt Milano reside.
You could argue that, for Baun to get his true long-term value, he should sign another short-term contract in a good spot and try to produce another year like his season in 2024. Taking an $8-10 million one-year deal to remain in Philadelphia and chase another Super Bowl could pay off handsomely if he has another huge season in 2025.
Of course, that is also incredibly risky when the option to earn around $12-15 million a year could be available on a three- or four-year deal away from Philadelphia. It is hard to argue that Baun should be paid more than $15 million a year based on one (very) good season unless teams put incentives and escalators in the deal that could get it above that mark.
Byron Murphy II | Cornerback
- Potential Contract: $17.5-20 million per year
- Potential Contract Length: 3-5 years
The cornerback market feels like slim pickings this offseason, and that could really help the top-of-the-market guys command high prices in the coming weeks. One such player is Byron Murphy II, who ranks sixth in the PFSN Top 100 free agents for 2025. Murphy is one of three cornerbacks in the top 15, but he is the one with the highest ceiling of that trio.
Murphy is an interesting proposition as a free agent. He is coming off a season in which he had six interceptions, making it nine in the past two years and 14 in the past four seasons. However, he also allowed four touchdowns in coverage and has allowed 10 touchdowns in the last two years.
The six interceptions mean that Murphy had his lowest passer rating allowed of his career (76.7), but he still profiles as a bit of an all-or-nothing cornerback. The benefit of that is that turnovers are far less prevalent in the NFL than touchdowns; therefore, having a cornerback with a knack for getting his hands on the ball is a tremendous asset.
The question is, how valuable is that trait? The top of the cornerback market is Jalen Ramsey at $24.1 and Pat Surtain II at $24 million. Surtain is a far more consistent corner than Murphy but lacks some of his upside in terms of turnovers. Consistency is the selling point of most of the highest-paid corners, and that is the concern with Murphy.
From a pure opportunist point of view, Murphy has every chance of getting into the $20 million-a-year range. He is a potential game-changer with his ball skills but could leave a franchise with an egg on their face at times when he is beaten for a touchdown.
Ultimately, a deal in the range of $17.5-20 million a year for Murphy makes a lot of sense. If he is viewed as the premier corner on the market, then it could creep above that bracket. Still, the presence of D.J. Reed and Carlton Davis III, who offer a little more consistency at a lower price bracket, should stop his value from getting overinflated.
Justin Reid | Safety
- Potential Contract: $15-17 million per year
- Potential Contract Length: 3-4 years
The safety position is going to be intriguing this offseason. Several options can be starters, but not many are proven top-tier players with Justin Reid’s winning mentality. While 2024 was not a career year for Reid, it was the latest in a run of three excellent seasons in Kansas City.
Reid has played 49 games during those three seasons, averaging over 80 tackles a season. He is a hard-tackling safety who is known for being in the right place at the right time. Those traits are hard to quantify other than by looking at raw tackle numbers and tackles for loss (10 in the past two seasons).
In terms of a potential contract, Reid should expect to be paid toward the upper end of the market this offseason. At the top of the charts is Antonie Winfield Jr. at $21.025 million, who got paid after an incredible 120-tackle season with six forced fumbles and three interceptions. Reid is unlikely to challenge that but should be able to land in the Jessie Bates III, Budda Baker-type tier.
That will put Reid at around $16 million AAV on a three- or four-year deal. Reid does not have the same game-changing turnover ability as those players, which could mean his deal settles at around $15 million. However, he is a statistically better player than Marcus Williams when he got $14 million a year.
