The first two weeks in the NFL have been wild, with a number of huge upsets and teams struggling that we expected to contend. Of course, we are only 11.8% of the way through the season, and plenty can change between now and January.
Accordingly, the NFL playoff picture in Week 2 is a bit of a mess with nine teams at 2-0, 14 teams at 1-1, and nine at 0-2. Therefore, rather than linger on what the current playoff picture looks like, let’s use the PFN NFL Playoff Predictor to project what it may look like in 16 weeks’ time when the regular season comes to an end.
Projecting the AFC Playoff Picture
1) Kansas City Chiefs
2) Houston Texans
3) Buffalo Bills
4) Baltimore Ravens
5) New York Jets
6) Los Angeles Chargers
7) Cincinnati Bengals
Predicting three of the four division winners after two weeks feels like a fairly comfortable exercise in the AFC. The Chiefs haven’t been convincing, but they’ve gotten to 2-0 while beating two recent AFC powerhouses, the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals. Despite those tight finishes, Kansas City still has the eighth-best net expected points added in the league through two weeks.
The Texans have also flattered to deceive in recent weeks, ranking 10th in net EPA despite facing two offenses with plenty of inconsistency issues. Ultimately, it’s hard to see them not winning a division that they already have a two-game lead on and already appear to have the most talented roster of the group.
Buffalo is an intriguing case because they were extremely unconvincing in Week 1 against the Arizona Cardinals and then breezed through a matchup in Miami, where they played against a backup quarterback for a stretch. Most data will tell you that the Bills have been the luckiest team through two weeks, and despite having the second-best EPA in the league, plenty of questions remain.
The AFC North is the hardest division to judge because the two teams we expected to win before the season started are 0-2. Additionally, both had embarrassing losses to teams we expected to struggle in those first two weeks. However, the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns have hardly been convincing. The Steelers’ EPA is ninth in the league, partly because their defense has feasted on two mediocre offenses.
It’s not hard to project the Ravens and Bengals improving as the year goes on. Yes, they are already in a two-game hole, but each has to face the Steelers and Browns twice and should still be favorites in those contests.
The three Wild Card teams are really hard to judge because the AFC has been so crazy the past two weeks. Since the switch to the 17-game schedule and seven playoff teams per conference, 2-0 teams have made the playoffs 77% of the time. Therefore, we should reasonably expect at least four or five of the Bills, Chargers, Steelers, Texans, and Chiefs to make it.
The Jets haven’t been overly convincing through two weeks, but they should get better as Aaron Rodgers gets more snaps under his belt. In the past three years, 45% of 1-1 teams make the playoffs, and of the five teams currently sitting there, the Jets stand out as the clear favorites to withstand a prolonged playoff challenge.
Just under 10% of 0-2 teams make the playoffs, and we’ve already projected the Ravens to do it. In total, there are nine teams at 0-2, so it would be tough to project more than two to do it. On the NFC side, there are no obvious candidates, plus the only team other than the Ravens that makes sense is the Bengals.
That final spot ultimately came down to the Steelers, Chargers, and Bengals. It will likely be incredibly close, but if Joe Burrow stays healthy, Cincinnati should be able to beat out their division rivals.
The Chargers are a tough projection because they haven’t really been tested yet. The Week 3 game between the Chargers and Steelers could very well be a deciding factor when Week 18 is finished.
Projecting the NFC Playoff Picture
1) New Orleans Saints
2) Arizona Cardinals
3) Philadelphia Eagles
4) Green Bay Packers
5) San Francisco 49ers
6) Detroit Lions
7) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This NFL playoff projection is 100% drinking the Kool-Aid when it comes to the Saints and Cardinals.
Both have looked much improved so far in 2024. The Saints are the two-win team that has relied on the least amount of luck, and their Klint Kubiak offense has been a breath of fresh air.
The Cardinals are in perfect position to take advantage of the injury woes in San Francisco and Los Angeles, while the Seahawks have been unconvincing in their 2-0 start. Arizona is well worth their 1-1 start and has the chance to pick up a win over the 49ers while they’re still reeling due to injuries to key personnel.
After arguably being the luckiest team in 2024, the Eagles haven’t had things go their way this year. They dominated in Week 2 but made sloppy mistakes that cost them the game. Philadelphia should learn from these and take full advantage of an NFC East that we fully expect to be a two-team race again.
In Week 2, the Packers showed that Matt LaFleur is a thinking head coach as they plotted their way past the Indianapolis Colts. Green Bay will be hard-pressed to keep winning every game with Malik Willis, but even one win is enough to ensure they should still be in the frame when Jordan Love returns. The Packers are extremely talented, and their 12th-placed ranking in terms of EPA might be underselling them.
The three Wild Card spots are tough to project because the Minnesota Vikings and Seattle Seahawks are 2-0. However, the Sam Darnold bubble seems like it will inevitably burst at some point, and Minnesota is already dealing with a number of injury concerns. Seattle has scraped past two mediocre (at best) teams and is somewhat lucky to have two wins.
It’s hard not to overreact to what is going on in San Francisco and Dallas for different reasons. The 49ers are dealing with several injury concerns but should be back close to full health by midseason. They are 11th in net EPA despite those concerns, so it’s easy to continue projecting them as a playoff team.
Detroit hasn’t been overly impressive this season so far, ranking 16th in EPA. Watching the games, you could easily make the case they could be 2-0, 1-1, or 0-2. As it turns out, they’re 1-1 and still in a nice spot to make a run if they get things together. The Lions’ defense is the biggest concern, and if they cannot turn that around, there will be growing concerns in the second half of the season.
The Buccaneers are another interesting proposition because they dominated when they were supposed to in Week 1 and then got a hard-fought win on the road in Week 2. Tampa Bay should have enough winnable games on its schedule to help it reach double-digit wins and clinch a playoff spot.
Dallas is a tougher projection because Week 2 was really embarrassing. The Cowboys have the 27th-best net EPA, mostly driven by a 25th-best offensive EPA. However, it’s widely expected they will turn their offense around.
Will it be enough if they are fighting for three spots with the 49ers, Lions, and Buccaneers? That was another tight call that could easily go either way.
Stats courtesy of TruMedia unless stated.