In a must-win matchup for both sides, let’s examine this Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Minnesota Vikings matchup and make a prediction for how it may shape up. Let’s take a look at who has the edge when it comes to individual matchups before examining the NFL odds for Steelers at Vikings.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Minnesota Vikings Prediction | Steelers offense vs. Vikings defense
The Steelers’ Week 12 performance is somewhat hard to unpack. Through the first three quarters, they had just 3 points before scoring 17 in the fourth quarter. However, a large part of that was due to the Ravens’ defense crumbling with injuries. Additionally, the Steelers have now scored 20 points or in less in four of their last six games, highlighting the struggles of an offense ranked in the bottom half in a number of categories.
What they will find in the Vikings is a defense that also ranks in the bottom half in a number of categories. Minnesota’s defense has allowed 31.3 points per game in the last three weeks, including 29 points to the Detroit Lions in Week 13. Let’s examine how the individual matchups could play out.
Ben Roethlisberger vs. Vikings defense
It has been a mixed season for Ben Roethlisberger in 2021. When you watch him on film, he is clearly compromised in his abilities and combines that with some absolutely head-scratching mistakes. Yet, when you look at his game-by-game numbers, there has been a big improvement since a slow start in the first four weeks. In his seven games since, Big Ben has had a passer rating over 90 in six.
For all of his struggles, Roethlisberger still grades as just a slightly below-average QB in the league, per PFN’s Offensive Value Metric (OVM). His play has certainly declined in the last five years, but compared to some of the performances we have seen in the league, Roethlisberger has certainly not been detrimental to his offense in the same way as others have.
[bet-bonus id=”164810″ ]
Minnesota’s defense will provide an interesting test for the Steelers. On the one hand, they allow a seventh-best 62.4% completion rate, but teams have been able to make big plays against them. Only four teams allow more yards per attempt (7.8), and they sit eighth-worst in touchdown percentage (8.0).
The rest of their defense has very much been league average outside of their third-down defense (seventh-best; 36.1%). That will be key in this matchup. Roethlisberger has 127 third-down pass attempts, completing 60.3% for 896 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 54 first downs. If the Vikings can stifle the Steelers on third down, they can wear down T.J. Watt and Pittsburgh’s defense.
Advantage: Push
Steelers skill-position weapons vs. Vikings secondary and linebackers
The Steelers’ offense has leaned heavily on Diontae Johnson this year, with 120 targets (26.3%) heading his way. Often questioned for his drops, Johnson has just 1 this year while catching 63.3% of his targets. Behind him is Chase Claypool, with 72 targets. Claypool is only catching 54.2% of his targets, but he provides a deep threat with 16.9 yards per reception.
The offense has then utilized Najee Harris (72 targets) and Pat Freiermuth (57 targets) heavily. Harris has been a solid option out of the backfield, but Freiermuth has really impressed. The rookie tight end has caught 75.4% of his targets and scored 6 touchdowns. The Steelers’ two-receiver, one-tight end, one-running back passing attack feels like it has a nice balance.
The return of Patrick Peterson makes it interesting to see how the Vikings use their corners. Cameron Dantzler has been superb this year, allowing just a 52.3% completion rate on 44 targets, at 5.1 yards per target. The return of Peterson could allow Dantzler to start in place of Bashaud Breeland, who has allowed 6 touchdowns and 8.7 yards per target this season.
The coverage skills of Nick Vigil and the returning Anthony Barr could be crucial against the threat of Freiermuth and Harris. Vigil is allowing an 86.1% completion rate but has kept receivers to just 7.3 yards per target. Meanwhile, Barr is allowing just 6.4 yards per target in coverage. They have both been significantly better in coverage than the likes of Eric Kendricks, Harrison Smith, and Xavier Woods.
Advantage: Steelers (marginally)
Steelers offensive line vs. Vikings defensive front
This element of the game is where one team can win or lose this matchup. The Steelers have been one of the worst teams running the ball this season, despite having a star rookie RB in Harris. Their offensive line has struggled to move opposing defensive fronts, and the run game is averaging 3.7 yards per attempt.
The Vikings have really struggled against the run game this season, allowing a second-worst 4.7 yards per attempt. Things have been better in recent weeks, with four games of 100 or fewer yards allowed. However, they also have two games allowing over 200 rushing yards. If the Steelers can find traction on the ground, they can control this game, but it will certainly not be easy.
Pittsburgh’s offensive line has been better in pass protection. Their 5.1% sack rate allowed is the 10th-best figure in the league. Some of that is due to how tricky Roethlisberger can be to bring down, but his lack of mobility makes it harder for them at times.
They will not have it easy against the Vikings, who have been good rushing the passer. They rank in the top five in pressure rate (27.6%), hurry rate (14.1%), and sack rate (7.9%). If they can disrupt the Steelers’ passing attack, they can stifle an offense that has struggled at times this season.
Advantage: Vikings (marginally)
Steelers at Vikings Predictions | Vikings offense vs. Steelers defense
The Vikings’ offense has actually been rolling along nicely since their Week 7 bye. In that stretch, they have gone over 25 points in five of their six games. In their last five contests, they have averaged 29 points per game, but due to their defensive struggles, they have only gone 2-3.
Pittsburgh’s defense has been a strange unit to judge this year. On the one hand, you get performances like they have had against the Ravens and Browns, keeping them to a combined 29 points. Then you have performances as we saw against the Chargers and Bengals, where they gave up 41 points in each game. They have talented individuals, but the overall unit is struggling for consistency.
Kirk Cousins vs. Steelers defense
Cousins, who was named PFN’s QB of the month for November, has quietly put together a very good season. He is completing 68.4% of his passes for 7.5 yards per attempt with 25 touchdowns. Additionally, he has also been avoiding mistakes for a large part, with a league-leading interception rate of 0.7%. Fumbles have been a concern — he’s fumbled 7 times, but fortunately has only lost 2.
PFN’s OVM reinforces how much value Cousins adds to this offense. His current grade has him in the top 10 at QB in value added within his environment for the fifth time in six seasons. He’s inside the top 12 for a sixth straight year. Cousins receives a lot of criticism at times, but his performances continue to add value to the Vikings’ offense.
The Steelers pass defense has not been a disaster, but it has generally been a below-average unit. They rank in the bottom 10 in the league in interception rate (1.5%) and yards per attempt (7.6). Yet, they have generally done a good job keeping opposing passing games out of the end zone, with a touchdown percentage of just 4.3.
Their red-zone defense, which ranks fourth with a 50% touchdown rate, is keeping them in games. The battle in the red zone will be interesting, as Cousins has 18 touchdowns this season on 57 red-zone passing attempts. He should be able to move the ball between the 20s, but finishing those drives could very well be the difference between a comfortable victory and a tight back-and-forth battle.
Advantage: Vikings (marginally)
Vikings skill-position weapons vs. Steelers secondary and linebackers
The loss of Adam Thielen is a blow for the Vikings. Having Thielen on the field makes it hard for the Steelers to continually double-team Justin Jefferson. Instead, they will be relying on the likes of K.J. Osborn, Dede Westbrook, and Tyler Conklin to make plays against the Steelers’ weaker secondary options.
Utilizing Alexander Mattison and Kene Nwangwu in the passing attack will also be important. Mattison has caught 24 of his 28 targets for 183 yards and a touchdown. Nwangwu has only been targeted 3 times for 4 yards, but his elusiveness makes him a potential game-changer if the Vikings can engineer him some space.
The Steelers have generally struggled in coverage. Only Joe Haden and Terrell Edmunds have allowed a passer rating less than 90, with Edmunds giving up just 4.6 yards per target on 38 targets. Haden is only forfeiting a 57.6% completion rate at 7.0 yards per target.
Tre Norwood and Devin Bush have particularly struggled in coverage. Both are allowing a passer rating over 114 with a combined 4 touchdowns conceded. Cameron Sutton and Joe Schobert have also been vulnerable in coverage. It will be interesting to watch how the Vikings try to create matchups with Jefferson and Mattison on weaker coverage options.
Advantage: Vikings (marginally without Thielen)
Vikings offensive line vs. Steelers defensive front.
The performance of the Vikings offensive line has been very mixed this season, especially in the run game. They do benefit from having two very good backs in Dalvin Cook, who will be out for this game, and Mattison. Both backs are more than capable of taking advantage of what they are given. However, the lack of consistency of the run game this season is indicative of the offensive line’s struggles.
One area this line has been maligned is in pass protection, but generally, they have been solid this year. They have allowed a sack percentage of just 3.8, which is the second-best in the league. Having two very good receivers in Thielen and Jefferson has helped Cousins get rid of the ball efficiently. That has helped hide any deficiencies. Nevertheless, this line has improved in pass blocking this year.
The Steelers’ defense has not been its usual talented self, and it begins upfront. They have allowed 4.8 rush yards per attempt, which ranks last in the NFL. The Vikings should be able to make yards on the ground against a team that has allowed over 100 yards rushing in eight of their last nine outings, including their last five.
Yet, Pittsburgh’s pass rush has been intriguing. They rank in the middle of the pack in pressure rate (25.9%) and 10th in hurry rate (11.5%). However, they have been the second-most effective team in the league in sack rate at 8.5%. They have managed to make splash plays (thanks in large part to the talent of Watt), but the consistency of their pass rush is not all that impressive.
Advantage: Vikings
Steelers vs. Vikings betting line and game prediction
- Spread: Vikings -3 (odds courtesy of DraftKings sportsbook)
- Moneyline: Steelers +145, Vikings -165
- Total: 43
Both of these teams have been extremely tough to judge this season. The Vikings had impressive back-to-back victories over the Chargers and Packers but have since struggled against the 49ers and Lions. Meanwhile, the Steelers stopped a slump last week when they defeated the Ravens.
This game will likely come down to which team can control the game on the ground, especially if the Vikings can put the pressure on Roethlisberger. Moreover, the red zone will be key, with the Steelers’ 14th-ranked red-zone offense against the Vikings’ 25th-ranked red-zone defense. Meanwhile, Minnesota’s seventh-ranked red-zone offense will go up against Pittsburgh’s fourth-ranked red-zone defense.
The Vikings should have the talent to win this game. Unless Pittsburgh’s defense can keep Minnesota to around 21-24 points, it is hard to imagine the Steelers being able to score enough to emerge victorious in this Week 14 Thursday Night Football matchup.
Steelers vs. Vikings prediction: Vikings 30, Steelers 20