As we move deeper into the second half of the 2024 NFL season, the playoff picture becomes clearer. The Pittsburgh Steelers are never bad under Mike Tomlin, but very few expected them to seriously challenge for the AFC North crown.
Let’s examine the Steelers’ playoff odds and various scenarios after their loss to the Browns on Thursday Night Football in Week 12.
Can the Steelers Make the Playoffs?
Heading into Week 13, the Pittsburgh Steelers are 8-3 and now have a 91.8% chance to make the playoffs.
They have a 2.3% chance for the 1 seed, a 15.9% chance for the second seed, a 22.3% chance for the third seed, a 1.2% chance for the fourth seed, a 24.7% chance for the fifth seed, a 15.9% chance for the sixth seed, and a 9.5% chance for the seventh seed.
Can the Steelers Win the AFC North?
Here’s what the AFC North race looks like after all the action in Week 12:
- The Baltimore Ravens have a 58.0% chance to win the AFC North.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have a 41.7% chance to win the AFC North.
- The Cincinnati Bengals have a 0.3% chance to win the AFC North.
- The Cleveland Browns have a <0.1% chance to win the AFC North.
Current AFC North Standings
- Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3)
- Baltimore Ravens (8-4)
- Cincinnati Bengals (4-7)
- Cleveland Browns (3-8)
AFC Playoff Race | Week 18
1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1)
2. Buffalo Bills (13-3)
3. Baltimore Ravens (12-5)
4. Houston Texans (9-7)
5. Los Angeles Chargers (10-6)
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)
7. Denver Broncos (9-7)
In The Hunt
9. Cincinnati Bengals (9-8)
8. Miami Dolphins (8-8)
Eliminated From Playoffs
10. Indianapolis Colts (7-9)
11. New York Jets (4-12)
12. Las Vegas Raiders (4-12)
13. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12)
14. Tennessee Titans (3-13)
15. New England Patriots (3-13)
16. Cleveland Browns (3-14)
Steelers’ Super Bowl Chances in Week 12
Can the Steelers win the Super Bowl? The PFN Playoff Predictor projects that Pittsburgh has a 4.6% chance to win it all.
Steelers Remaining Schedule
- Week 13: at Cincinnati Bengals
- Week 14: vs. Cleveland Browns
- Week 15: at Philadelphia Eagles
- Week 16: at Baltimore Ravens
- Week 17: vs. Kansas City Chiefs
- Week 18: vs. Cincinnati Bengals
What PFN Predicted for the Steelers-Browns Matchup
Every year, there are always surprise playoff teams in the NFL. Somehow, despite never being downright poor under Tomlin, the Steelers are a surprise. Pittsburgh is 8-2 and alone atop the AFC North. The Steelers have won five straight and their strong defense just shut down Lamar Jackson and the explosive Baltimore Ravens offense.
This is going to be an interesting matchup. The Steelers want to run the ball. Their 52% neutral-game-script run rate is the second highest in the league. Well, the Browns’ 58.8% rush defense success rate is sixth best in the league.
If the Steelers opt to take to the air, that’s quite interesting as well. Teams have been testing the Browns deep. They’ve faced the fifth-highest rate of downfield passes this season. However, they’re only surrendering completions on those passes at a 37% rate, the eighth lowest in the league.
The real problem for the Browns is going to be on offense. Jameis Winston has unlocked something very fun for this offense. Since he took over, the Browns are averaging 17.6 points per game. That may not seem like much, but they didn’t score over 18 points a single time while Deshaun Watson was under center. With that said, he’s still Jameis Winston. That means both big and dangerous plays.
a little 🎱 magic!!#CLEvsNO on Fox and NFL+ pic.twitter.com/jYDRNnTbZr
— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) November 17, 2024
The Steelers are sixth in pass defense EPA per dropback. They’re seventh in the league in interceptions per attempt. It could be a long night on a short week for Winston and this Browns offense.
Pittsburgh is currently a four-point favorite with the total sitting at a paltry 36.
PFN Prediction: Steelers 23, Browns 10