The Pittsburgh Steelers head into Week 18 needing help in some form to find their way into the postseason as they sit at the back of the pack of teams still with a shot. The Steelers have done their part over the last few weeks with a pair of key wins, including a narrow 30-23 triumph over the Seattle Seahawks. More work remains, however, for the franchise to earn its third playoff berth in the last four seasons.
Pittsburgh Steelers Playoff Chances | Week 18 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Jan. 6 and 8 a.m. before Saturday’s games began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day.
The Steelers have clinched a playoff spot and will be the No. 7 seed in the AFC. They will travel to Buffalo to take on the Bills on Wild Card Weekend.
Saturday Games Update
Steelers (10-7) defeated Ravens (13-4)
Texans (10-7) defeated Colts (9-8)
1 p.m. ET Games Update
Titans (6-11) defeated Jaguars (9-8)
Sunday Night Football Update
Bills (11-6) defeated Dolphins (11-6)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the Steelers entering Week 18. And head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture.
What Are the Pittsburgh Steelers’ Playoff Chances and Scenarios in Week 18?
Pittsburgh heads into its regular-season finale with several scenarios by which it can qualify for the playoffs, but all of them involve depending on another team’s results in one form or another.
The Steelers’ odds of qualifying for the postseason are thus fairly long, the longest in the AFC, to be precise, at roughly 19% based on data gathered from simulations of PFN’s Playoff Predictor.
MORE: Pittsburgh Steelers Depth Chart
Still, several realistic scenarios do exist for Pittsburgh to punch its ticket to the postseason, and they have become more probable after news broke that the Baltimore Ravens will not start quarterback Lamar Jackson this week as they already have the AFC’s No. 1 seed secured.
That reality makes the Steelers’ likeliest paths to qualification a bit easier. A Steelers win over Baltimore combined with either a loss by the Buffalo Bills, a loss or tie by the Jacksonville Jaguars, or the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts tying would punch Pittsburgh’s ticket to the playoffs.
Buffalo could certainly lose to the Miami Dolphins, though the Bills are currently favored to win. Jacksonville losing to the Tennessee Titans is also possible, if unlikely, while a tie between Houston and Indianapolis is highly improbable.
Still, other scenarios exist for the Steelers to make the postseason. Pittsburgh could also get in with a tie against the Ravens alongside a loss by the Jaguars and the Texans-Colts game not ending in a tie. The Steelers would also qualify, regardless of their result, with a loss by Jacksonville, the Denver Broncos winning, and Houston-Indianapolis not ending in a tie.
All of that makes Pittsburgh’s most likely playoff spot the AFC’s No. 7 seed, though it certainly still has a chance to finish sixth as well.
A seventh-seed finish would likely have the Steelers facing either the Bills or Dolphins in Round 1, as the winner of that Miami-Buffalo game will finish as the conference’s No. 2 seed. Meanwhile, finishing as the sixth seed would pit Pittsburgh against the third-seeded Kansas City Chiefs in the Wild Card round of the playoffs.
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