The Pittsburgh Steelers didn’t look like anyone’s idea of a playoff team after they dropped three straight games — including losses to the Arizona Cardinals and New England Patriots — from Weeks 13 through 15. However, a rebound win against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 16 kept the Steelers in the AFC Wild Card conversation, if only on the fringes.
What needs to happen for Pittsburgh’s postseason chances to increase in Week 17? Let’s find out what the Steelers’ playoff scenarios could look like after Sunday’s action.
Pittsburgh Steelers Playoff Chances | Week 17 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Dec. 31 before Sunday’s game began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the weekend.
After the late Sunday afternoon slate in Week 17, the Steelers are the No. 9 seed in the AFC. Pittsburgh needs to win in Week 18 and receive help to grab a playoff slot.
Thursday Night Football Update
Browns (11-5) defeated Jets (6-10)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET Update
Ravens (13-3) defeated Dolphins (11-5)
Bills (10-6) defeated Patriots (4-12)
Texans (9-7) defeated Titans (5-11)
Jaguars (9-7) defeated Panthers (2-14)
Colts (9-7) defeated Raiders (7-9)
Sunday 4 p.m. ET Update
Steelers (9-7) defeated Seahawks (8-8)
Chiefs (10-6) defeated Bengals (8-8)
Broncos (8-8) defeated Chargers (5-11)
Be sure to check out our NFL Playoff Predictor to predict the rest of Week 17 and see how the playoff field shakes out.
Pittsburgh Steelers’ Playoff Chances Entering Week 17
While the Steelers have a path to the postseason, their odds are dwindling. Pro Football Network’s simulations give Pittsburgh just a 15% chance of making the playoffs ahead of its Week 17 tilt against the Seattle Seahawks.
At 8-7, the Steelers are the AFC’s No. 9 seed heading into Sunday’s games. The Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts have the same record as Pittsburgh, but both clubs hold head-to-head playoff tiebreakers over the Steelers.
Similarly, Pittsburgh is ahead of Cincinnati in the AFC standings thanks to its season sweep.
The Steelers cannot catch the Cleveland Browns, who have already clinched the No. 5 seed (at worst). While Mike Tomlin and Co. could technically overtake the 9-6 Buffalo Bills for the sixth seed, Pittsburgh’s playoff probability is primarily wrapped up in the No. 7 slot.
Steelers’ Week 17 Playoff Scenarios
Although QB Kenny Pickett (ankle) might be healthy enough to return in Week 17, the Steelers are rolling with Mason Rudolph as their starting signal-caller against the Seahawks on Sunday.
Regardless of who’s under center, Pittsburgh likely needs to win out to have any chance at a Wild Card berth.
While there are scenarios in which the Steelers could make the playoffs with only nine wins, the sheer volume of clubs competing for the seventh AFC Wild Card spot will likely make 10 victories a requirement.
Pittsburgh is undoubtedly staring at an uphill climb into the tournament, but consider a few data points that could help the Steelers’ cause.
First, the fact that the Texans and Colts will face each other in the regular-season finale will benefit the Steelers. One team has to lose that game, meaning one of Houston or Indianapolis will not finish with 10 wins. (A Texans-Colts tie would also help Pittsburgh, assuming it gets to double-digit wins itself.)
Second, while a Week 18 contest against the Baltimore Ravens looks challenging on paper, Baltimore may not have anything to play for. If the Ravens beat the Miami Dolphins in Week 17, they will clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC, giving them a first-round playoff bye and home-field advantage throughout the postseason.
MORE: PFN’s Week 17 Power Rankings
With nothing on the line, Baltimore could sit starters like QB Lamar Jackson, WR Zay Flowers, LB Roquan Smith, and other impact contributors, allowing the Steelers to face an artificially depleted Ravens squad.
Pittsburgh’s cleanest playoff scenario starts with the Jacksonville Jaguars winning the AFC South, removing one contender from the AFC Wild Card race. Trevor Lawrence and Co. hold a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Steelers thanks to the Jags’ 20-10 win in Week 8.
Then, Pittsburgh needs the winner of Week 18’s Texans-Colts game to lose in Week 17. (Clearly, the Steelers won’t know the identity of that Week 18 winner in advance, so consider this retroactive rooting). In that scenario, Pittsburgh would enter the postseason as the No. 7 seed.
Conversely, the Steelers can be eliminated from the playoffs as early as Sunday. Pittsburgh’s season is over if any of the following scenarios play out:
- PIT loss + BUF win/tie + IND win/tie + HOU win+ DEN loss/tie
- PIT loss + BUF win/tie + IND win+ HOU win+ JAX loss + KC win/tie
- PIT loss + BUF win/tie + IND win/tie + DEN loss/tie + JAX win
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!