The Pittsburgh Steelers‘ fantasy preview dives into their underwhelming receiver corps, while the Indianapolis Colts‘ outlook details the recent fantasy football failures of Zack Moss.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts
- Spread: Colts -2.5
- Total: 42
- Steelers implied points: 19.8
- Colts implied points: 22.3
Quarterbacks
Gardner Minshew: I was hopeful that a stable run game and a bonafide WR1 would help Minshew produce useful numbers, but that hope is gone. His average positional finish over his past six games is QB19, and he has just one finish this season inside the top 12 at the position.
The Steelers are the eighth-best red-zone defense in the league, so even should Minshew find a way to produce between the 20s, I’m not comfortable that he’s responsible for many trips to the end zone. He’s barely a top-20 option this week, with bye weeks now in the rearview.
Running Backs
Najee Harris: He has looked like the lead back in this offense post-Matt Canada, and until we have any proof of that changing, that’s how I’m going to rank it. Even dipping back into the Canada era, Harris’ involvement in the passing game (3+ targets in six of his past eight games) is more than suitable given his short-yardage/goal-line work.
The Colts allow the seventh-most rushing yards per game (131.5), and I expect Harris to benefit most from this good matchup. Both he and Jaylen Warren are viable Flex plays for me in this spot; Harris a few spots higher due to the scoring equity.
Jaylen Warren: The Steelers rank 24th in time of possession, meaning they’re rarely in a position to run a high number of plays. That’s a big negative when it comes to a backfield committee, but it might not be prohibitive this week against a Colts team that is even worse at possessing the ball (26th in time of possession).
Warren only has two games this season with 12 carries, but the splash-play potential (5.6 ypc this season) keeps his ceiling high enough to make him a worthwhile Flex option.
Zack Moss: The process continues to be right, and the results are wrong. Not ideal, but I’m stubborn, and I would suggest you be too.
Moss saw eight targets last week, and I expect that level of usage in the passing game to be sustained against the fourth blitz-heaviest defense in the league.
Good fantasy managers kept Moss on their roster, even after Jonathan Taylor returned to action. Great ones will continue to play the odds and plug Moss in with confidence.
#TrustTheProcess
Wide Receivers
George Pickens: With all the chips in the middle of the table, I’m not sure how you bet on Pickens moving forward. The lack of production is one thing — under 60 yards in six of his past seven and scoreless since the beginning of November — but Pickens looking completely disinterested in the sport of football last week is another.
Even in a year filled with struggles, Pickens is averaging 15.7 yards per catch and has a 35+ yard grab in two of his past three games. Right now, I need to see it from him before I consider investing.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
We could see it this week against the lowest blitz rate in the NFL, a defensive game plan that could allow Pickens to find space to operate down the field. If that happens, hopefully, you advance and have the opportunity to ride him against a Bengals defense that is routinely attacked downfield next week.
You need to be comfortable in your playoff matchup with the players you’re starting, but neither Steelers receiver checks that box for me this week — both are outside of my top 30 rather easily.
Diontae Johnson: For the first time in over 700 days, per the Week 15 Cheat Sheet, Johnson has scored in consecutive games! Heading into this season, if you told me that his scoring would be trending in a positive direction heading into the fantasy playoffs, I would have told you to lock him in as a strong WR2 with a glorious ceiling/floor combination.
Well, that’s not the case. Johnson’s calling card for years has been his volume, but he hasn’t caught 5+ passes in a game since Nov. 2, and this offense as a whole is spinning its wheels.
We know the touchdowns can evaporate. If that’s the case, we are talking about WR67 (his average finish in the three games before this TD “run”). I prefer Johnson to Pickens, but not by enough to put him on my Flex radar in anything but deeper formats.
Michael Pittman Jr.: How do eight straight games of starting fantasy value return sound? That’s exactly what Pittman has offered, an amazing accomplishment given the limitations of Minshew in this passing game.
Last week in Cincinnati, the Colts had one player reach 50 receiving yards — it was Pittman with his customary 8-for-95 performance. His aDOT is up 13.4% from a season ago as this coaching staff has found the perfect mix of routes to maximize what it is that Pittman (and Minshew) do well.
He’s a matchup-proof WR1 moving forward and one of the better bargains you got at your draft this summer.
Josh Downs: Pittman’s success had me believing for a while that a secondary pass catcher in this offense could thrive next to him. That belief is long gone.
Downs is still my second favorite option in Indy’s passing game over Alec Pierce, but with him earning a 7.9% target share last week and not having a 50-yard performance since Halloween — it ain’t happening.
You can safely cut any Indianapolis pass catcher not named Pittman and build roster depth differently.
Tight Ends
Pat Freiermuth: Remember that career game against the Bengals in Week 12 where Patty Football caught nine passes for 120 yards? Turns out that was very much the exception, not the rule.
Freiermuth has seen his 12 targets net just 47 yards since that big performance and has been held under 30 receiving yards in six of eight games this season. He is the definition of a blobber at the TE position, and without any level of consistency under center, there’s no reason to take on this sort of risk with your fantasy season on the line.
Should You Start Joe Mixon or Zack Moss?
Hi. I’m the problem. It’s me.
I’m willing to triple down on Moss, assuming that Jonathan Taylor is again sidelined. The usage he has flashed over the past two weeks is Christian McCaffrey-ian, but the production has been Najee Harris-ian.
Mixon is a fine play with a stable floor, but he has been on the right side of scoring variance while Moss has run into misfortune (touchdowns called back in consecutive games). They are both players I am comfortable starting, but Moss’ alpha role has been drooling — even after two failures to produce in the same spot.
Should You Start Tee Higgins or George Pickens?
In contrast to the running back question above, I’m not comfortable in counting on either player here. Higgins’ low target share since Browning took over is a massive concern, as is Pickens’ disinterest in his offense.
If you’re in a bind, I lean toward Pickens. With six Bengals seeing 3-4 targets last week, the path to meaningful volume is more clear for Pickens, though I’m not betting on either seeing much in the way of scoring opportunities.
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