Championship fantasy football spots are on the line, and every decision is critical. Making the right start or sit call on your fantasy flex spots is massive, and one player managers will be deciding on in Week 15 is Denver Broncos RB Phillip Lindsay. While this hasn’t been the season we hoped for, all can be forgotten if he has a solid performance against the Buffalo Bills today.
Update December 19th, 2020: Phillip Lindsay is active for the Denver Broncos Week 15 matchup with the Buffalo Bills.
Phillip Lindsay has had a disappointing season in 2020
We knew the addition of Melvin Gordon was not going to help Lindsay and his fantasy value. However, like many others, I thought this would be more of a rotation than a true RB1 and RB2. We had seen back-to-back seasons of production from Lindsay even through injuries and coaching/scheme changes.
Unfortunately, injuries and inefficiency have derailed his season. A combination of a toe injury, concussion, and knee injury cost Lindsay four and a half games in 2020.
Lindsay by the numbers
In his 10 games, he has 107 carries for 464 yards and one touchdown. However, he has just four receptions on 11 targets for 21 yards.
For a player who had 35 receptions in each of his first two seasons, this is a massive drop that has decimated his fantasy floor. Add in the one touchdown compared to his 17 combined in 2018 and 2019, and you can see why he ranks as the RB62.
In the last six games, he has gained more than 26 yards just once (82 in the win over Miami), failed to score a touchdown, and has a long run of 20 yards. Melvin Gordon, meanwhile, has three games of at least 68 yards during that stretch, including 15 carries for 131 yards at Kansas City.
In the nine games with Lindsay and Gordon available, Lindsay received more snaps just once — at Carolina (29 snaps to 28). The Broncos trust Gordon more, as evidenced by Gordon’s 41 snaps per game average compared to Lindsay’s 24.
Phillip Lindsay was limited at practice on Wednesday
Head coach Vic Fangio said Wednesday that Lindsay (hip) will be limited in practice. However, he should be available for Saturday’s game against the Bills. Yes, you read that right. We have Saturday football now.
It’s important to note that Melvin Gordon is also dealing with a slight shoulder issue, but he won’t miss any time. The team is just being proactive with his workload this week to get him ready for the Week 15 game.
Lindsay does not get the respect he deserves for his career’s start
Coming in as an undrafted free agent from Colorado, the odds were stacked against Phillip Lindsay. Few players ever become relevant in the NFL and fantasy as a UDFA. Not only was he relevant, but he was about as good as anyone…ever.
Let me help put into context what Lindsay did.
In his first two years, Lindsay went over 1,000 yards both seasons. He also added 458 receiving yards on 70 receptions. Just as a rusher, amongst every UDFA in the history of the NFL, Phillip Lindsay has the fifth and seventh-best rushing seasons ever in a player’s first two seasons.
Let me put it this way, Lindsay has two of the top seven seasons out of the 2,397 who qualified in NFL history.
If you combine his first two seasons, his 2,048 rushing yards are second-most all-time for UDFA’s. Ryan Grant in 2007-2008 is first with 2,159. In yards from scrimmage, his total of 2,485 is second only to the historic start of Arian Foster in 2009-2010.
Phillip Lindsay hadn’t just been good; he had been good at a historical level.
Recent performances make it hard to recommend Phillip Lindsay as a safe fantasy start or sit in Week 15
As much as I believe in his talent, it is hard to trust Phillip Lindsay right now. He’s been out-gained 233 to 57 by Melvin Gordon the past two weeks on just five fewer touches. Lindsay may see even less volume on Saturday if the Broncos fall behind.
In 2020, Phillip Lindsay has seen 16 or more opportunities just once. That was in Week 6 when Gordon missed the New England game with an illness and was arrested for DUI.
Taking stock of the matchup
Right now, the Broncos are +6.5 on William Hill to the 10-3 Buffalo Bills. If things get out of hand early on, Lindsay could have a hard time seeing touches. While he has seen 10 carries in three of the last four weeks, he has yet to go over 30 yards. Without a score or a breakaway, it’s hard to recommend starting Phillip Lindsay in Week 15.
What touches he does see won’t be easy. The Bills are 16th in fantasy points allowed per game to RBs at 22.85. They allow just 97.2 yards on the ground to the position and face only 22 carries per game. For a team with a split backfield, this is problematic.
Through the air, they aren’t any easier. The Bills have allowed only one receiving TD to RBs and give up 35.9 yards receiving.
It’s hard to imagine fantasy managers who have gotten this far don’t have at least one safer option than Phillip Lindsay. If you are making a start or sit decision in Week 15 that involves Phillip Lindsay, I would think long and hard as the floor could be enough to kick you out of the fantasy playoffs.
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Tommy Garrett is a writer for PFN covering Fantasy Football. You can read more of his work here and follow him at @TommygarrettPFN on Twitter.