The Philadelphia Eagles are still the NFL‘s only two-loss team, but their odds of securing — or at least, easily securing — the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs took a hit when they lost to the San Francisco 49ers in Week 13.
Jalen Hurts and Co. are destined for the postseason, but exactly where they’ll be positioned in the NFC hierarchy remains to be determined. What playoff scenarios will the Eagles face in Week 14 when they’ll play a pivotal road game against the Dallas Cowboys?
Week 14 Update
Cowboys (10-3) defeated Eagles (10-3)
Dallas now leads the NFC East after Week 14
Philadelphia is the NFC’s No. 5 seed
49ers (10-3) defeated Seahawks (6-7)
Bears (5-8) defeated Lions (9-4)
Vikings (7-6) defeated Raiders (5-8)
What Can the Philadelphia Eagles Clinch in Week 14?
Let’s start with what the Eagles cannot clinch when they face the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football.
MORE: Philadelphia Eagles Depth Chart
Philadelphia cannot win the NFC East with a win over Dallas. If the Eagles emerge with a victory, they will still only hold a two-game lead over the Cowboys with four games remaining, technically leaving the door open for a Dallas comeback.
But Nick Sirianni’s club will nearly be able to slam the door shut on the Cowboys by winning in Week 14.
The Eagles currently have an 81.5% chance of winning the NFC East, per ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI). If they defeat Dallas on SNF, Philadelphia’s odds of claiming its second consecutive division crown will increase to over 99%.
If the Eagles fall to the Cowboys, they will move out of the top seed in the NFC playoff picture and into the fifth slot. Philadelphia and Dallas would have identical records and split their season series. Conference record is the next tiebreaker, and the Cowboys have a better mark there.
However, the Eagles would still control their own destiny. Were they to win out after losing to Dallas, Philadelphia would win the NFC East. As such, the Birds will still have a 72% to finish with as the division leader — even if they can’t beat the Cowboys.
Although the Eagles can’t end the NFC East race on Sunday, they can clinch a playoff berth this week. Philadelphia will need some help, but it all starts with an Eagles win on Sunday night.
Philly will secure a playoff entry via any of the following scenarios:
- PHI win + LAR loss/tie
- PHI win + SEA loss/tie
- PHI win + GB/loss tie + DET loss
- PHI win + GB loss/tie + MIN loss/tie
The Eagles could also clinch a postseason berth by tying the Cowboys, but that scenario involves several other permutations.
Can the Eagles Still Land the NFC’s No. 1 Seed?
Even after getting dominated by the 49ers in Week 13, the Eagles still have the best chance of any NFC team to grab the No. 1 seed and a first-round playoff bye.
Barring a complete surprise, the battle for the top seed will come down to Philadelphia and San Francisco. Entering Week 14, the Eagles have a 47% chance of landing the No. 1 seed, while the 49ers are at 42%. The Detroit Lions (6%) and Cowboys (5%) are the only other NFC clubs with a greater than 1% chance of earning the first-round bye.
MORE: Why Did Philly Sign Shaq Leonard?
San Francisco now holds the head-to-head tiebreaker, but 10-2 Philadelphia has a one-game lead over Philadelphia in the NFC standings.
Here’s the Eagles’ remaining schedule, the fifth-easiest slate in the NFL over the final five weeks:
- Week 14: at DAL
- Week 15: at SEA
- Week 16: vs. NYG
- Week 17: vs. ARZ
- Week 18: at NYG
Clearly, Philadelphia will be rooting for the Seahawks when they face the 49ers on Sunday. But San Francisco just beat Seattle by 18 points two weeks ago and is a 10.5-point favorite at home.
Here’s what the Eagles’ chances of earning the NFC’s No. 1 seed will look like based on Sunday’s outcomes:
- PHI win + SF loss: 89%
- PHI win + SF win: 68%
- PHI loss + SF loss: 51%
- PHI loss + SF win: 31%
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!