The NFL regular season reaches its midway point around 11:30 p.m. Monday. So welcome everyone to November, friends. There’s never been more data to help make informed decisions regarding this week’s NFL picks.
The data at this point helps separate the contenders from the pretenders. Here are Pro Football Network’s experts’ Week 9 NFL picks, along with the top play of each game, courtesy of our PFN betting guru Kyle Soppe.
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Pro Football Network’s Week 9 Moneyline Picks
Houston Texans at New York Jets (-1.5, 42) TNF
- David Bearman: Texans
- Adam Beasley: Jets
- Dallas Robinson: Texans
- Kyle Soppe: Jets
With apologies to the Dolphins, Jaguars, and Browns, the New York Jets are the undisputed most disappointing team of the first half. They’re 0-5 against the spread in their last five, 0-4 ATS against teams with winning records, and 0-4 ATS following losses. Plus, Aaron Rodgers (hamstring, knee) is gimpy.
But the Jets are now facing a Houston Texans offense expected to be without receivers Stefon Diggs (knee) and Nico Collins (hamstring). On short rest, the Texans are 3-0 ATS the last three years.
Soppe’s Pick: Jets -1.5
Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5, 52)
- Bearman: Falcons
- Beasley: Cowboys
- Robinson: Falcons
- Soppe: Falcons
Mike McCarthy’s seat is scorching after back-to-back losses to NFC rivals San Francisco and Detroit. The Dallas Cowboys haven’t been a great bounce-back team as of late, going 1-5 ATS in their last six, including 0-3 following a loss.
However, they should get running back Rico Dowdle, who spiked a fever before the 49ers game, back in the lineup against an Atlanta Falcons defense that has allowed 132.6 yards per game on the ground.
The Falcons have historically rotted like a week-old carved Jack-o-Lantern after Halloween. They’re 9-18-1 ATS in November, December, and January since 2021.
Soppe’s Pick: Under 52
Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (-9, 45.5)
- Bearman: Ravens
- Beasley: Ravens
- Robinson: Ravens
- Soppe: Ravens
The Denver Broncos defense has been on another level this year. According to PFN’s DEF+ metric, they’re the best the NFL has seen since the 2019 Patriots.
But Denver has yet to be tested like it will be Sunday against a Baltimore Ravens team smarting from a Week 8 shock loss to the Browns. The Ravens are first league-wide in total yards (452.1 per game), rushing yards (200), yards per play (7.1), yards per carry (6.2), and yards per pass (8.5). They’ve hit the over in seven of their eight games this season.
Yet, the Broncos have been road warriors, covering in each of their last three road games.
Soppe’s Pick: Over 45.5
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-6, 49.5)
- Bearman: Bills
- Beasley: Dolphins
- Robinson: Bills
- Soppe: Bills
The Miami Dolphins have been in freefall since Week 2, but there were signs of life on offense with Tua Tagovailoa’s return in Week 8. Miami will need much more of that in a stadium where it has lost its last five games by an average of 13 points.
Mike McDaniel’s team is 1-6 against the spread this year and has hit the under in all three road games.
The Buffalo Bills, meanwhile, look like real Super Bowl contenders. They lead the NFL with a +11 turnover margin and are 4-0 ATS vs. teams with losing records in 2024.
Soppe’s Pick: Bills -6
The New Orleans Saints were one of the hottest teams in the NFL through the first two weeks of the season, but they've lost six in a row since.
So, is HC Dennis Allen worried about his job security?
“We have conversations every day, you know what I mean? So I don’t feel any… pic.twitter.com/34hC5zFtGE
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 28, 2024
New Orleans Saints (-7, 43.5) at Carolina Panthers
- Bearman: Saints
- Beasley: Saints
- Robinson: Saints
- Soppe: Saints
Must-see TV, this is not. The New Orleans Saints have lost six straight. The Carolina Panthers have lost five straight and seven of eight. Woof.
But even the biggest stinker of a game presents opportunities to earn.
While the Saints aren’t great ATS this year (3-5), they’re way better than the Panthers (1-7). Carolina has hit the over in all three games they’ve played against teams with losing records, and New Orleans has done the same against three division opponents in 2024.
Soppe’s Pick: Over 43.5
Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals (-7, 46.5)
- Bearman: Bengals
- Beasley: Bengals
- Robinson: Bengals
- Soppe: Bengals
It’s been two steps forward, three steps back for the Cincinnati Bengals this year. After wins in three out of four to climb back within a game of .500, Joe Burrow and the fellas got smashed by the Eagles in Week 8. So their season is effectively on the line against a Las Vegas Raiders team that has lost its last four by a combined 47 points.
The Bengals have been insanely disappointing at home, going both 0-4 straight up and against the spread. The Raiders, meanwhile, are 4-1 ATS following a loss in 2024 and went 7-1-1 after October a year ago.
Soppe’s Pick: Raiders +7
Based on win probability, here are the luckiest teams in Week 8 and the teams that should have won but ran into bad luck during their game ⬇ pic.twitter.com/BTk694IrrD
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 29, 2024
Los Angeles Chargers (-2, 42.5) at Cleveland Browns
- Bearman: Browns
- Beasley: Chargers
- Robinson: Chargers
- Soppe: Chargers
Jameis Winston might not be the Cleveland Browns’ savior, but he’s certainly leaps and bounds better than what they had gotten out of Deshaun Watson prior to his Achilles tear.
Cleveland in Week 8 snapped a five-game losing streak in its shock win over the Ravens thanks largely to Winston’s three touchdown passes. Was it a fluke or a real sign of things to come?
The Browns will find out against a Los Angeles Chargers team that’s 3-0 ATS vs. Cleveland since 2018. Los Angeles has been an under team in six of its seven games this year and six of its last 20 after Halloween.
Soppe’s Pick: Over 42.5
Washington Commanders (-3.5, 43.5) at New York Giants
- Bearman: Commanders
- Beasley: Commanders
- Robinson: Commanders
- Soppe: Commanders
There’s some magic brewing in the nation’s capital.
The Washington Commanders’ Hail Mary win over the Bears lifted them to 6-1-1 against the spread this season. That includes a perfect 4-0 against sub-.500 opponents.
The New York Giants, meanwhile, are the polar opposite. They’re winless ATS in four games against teams with winning records. But historically, the short week hasn’t been a hindrance. New York is 11-3 ATS on less than full rest since 2020.
Soppe’s pick: Under 43.5
New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans (-3.5, 38)
- Bearman: Titans
- Beasley: Titans
- Robinson: Titans
- Soppe: Titans
Drake Maye’s Week 8 concussion likely means a return to Jacoby Brissett, and that’s not a good thing for the New England Patriots. Maye has a higher completion percentage (63.1-59.1), a higher TD/INT ratio (2.5/1-2/1), a higher success rate (43%-36.2%), and a far higher adjusted yards per attempt average (6.8-5.2).
But for every gnarly betting stat you can find for New England (including 0-3 ATS on the road this year), you can find one just as ugly for the Tennessee Titans.
The Titans — who got absolutely nuked by the Lions in Week 8 — are 1-6 ATS this year and 1-4 in their last five in November.
Soppe’s Pick: Patriots +3.5
Chicago Bears at Arizona Cardinals (-1, 44.5)
- Bearman: Cardinals
- Beasley: Cardinals
- Robinson: Cardinals
- Soppe: Bears
What is the Chicago Bears’ hangover situation after losing in Week 8 on a walk-off Hail Mary? The Bears will find out against an opportunistic Arizona Cardinals team that has won three of four despite getting outscored by 27 points during that stretch.
On the year, the Bears are in last place of their division despite outscoring opponents by 44. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are tied for first in theirs despite being outscored by 27.
The betting trends are just as confounding. Arizona went 4-14 straight up after Halloween the last two years, while Chicago has lost nine of its last 12 November games.
Soppe’s Pick: Bears +1
Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5, 45.5)
- Bearman: Eagles
- Beasley: Eagles
- Robinson: Eagles
- Soppe: Eagles
Things keep getting worse in Duval County. The Jacksonville Jaguars are 2-6 and could be without their top three wide receivers Sunday: Gabe Davis (shoulder), Christian Kirk (broken collarbone), and Brian Thomas Jr. (chest/rib) Sunday.
So good luck Trevor Lawrence against a Philadelphia Eagles defense that allows the sixth-fewest yards per pass in the league (6.0).
The Jaguars haven’t beaten a team with a winning record or one on its home field this season. The Eagles are undefeated against sub-.500 teams.
Soppe’s SGP: Eagles -7.5 with team total over 26 points
Detroit Lions (-3.5, 38.5) at Green Bay Packers
- Bearman: Lions
- Beasley: Lions
- Robinson: Lions
- Soppe: Lions
Matt LaFleur has “a high level of concern about the groin injury” that knocked Jordan Love out of the Green Bay Packers’ Week 8 win over Jacksonville.
We have a high level of concern for Packers backup QB Malik Willis against a Detroit Lions defense that forced four turnovers against a Titans club that started Mason Rudolph in Week 8.
Detroit has been a dependable bet this year, going 6-1 ATS (including 3-0 ATS). Green Bay is winless in three games ATS vs. teams with winning records this year.
Soppe’s Pick: Lions -3.5
Los Angeles Rams (-2, 48.5) at Seattle Seahawks
- Bearman: Rams
- Beasley: Rams
- Robinson: Seahawks
- Soppe: Rams
The Seattle Seahawks hope to get back receiver DK Metcalf, who missed the Week 8 blowout loss to the Bills with a knee injury.
How much of a difference does Metcalf make? It was the only game this year that Seattle has been held under 20 points.
The Los Angeles Rams defense has buckled down after a choppy start to the season, allowing just 35 total points and posting the NFL’s sixth-best defensive EPA per play (-.159) since Week 7.
Soppe’s Pick: Under 48.5
The Colts are benching Anthony Richardson in favor of Joe Flacco.
Richardson completed just 36% of his passes over the past two games. He is only the fifth quarterback since 2000 to have a completion rate of 36% or worse in a two-game span, and he became the first one to do it… pic.twitter.com/SSPcjTqXve
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 29, 2024
Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings (-5, 46.5) – SNF
- Bearman: Vikings
- Beasley: Vikings
- Robinson: Vikings
- Soppe: Vikings
The Indianapolis Colts made the smart competitive move by benching a flailing and “tired” Anthony Richardson for Joe Flacco. In the six games this year that Richardson started, the Colts’ total offensive EPA was a dreadful -22.15 compared to the two games Flacco started (15.20).
Put simply, Indianapolis now has a chance to compete in a way it didn’t when Richardson was on the field. More encouraging Colts trends: Indy is 7-1 ATS in 2024, including 3-0 in its last three road games.
Soppe’s Pick: Colts +5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5, 45.5) – MNF
- Bearman: Chiefs
- Beasley: Chiefs
- Robinson: Chiefs
- Soppe: Chiefs
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense hung in there admirably in its first game without Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. Baker Mayfield still completed 74% of his passes and threw three touchdowns in a 31-26 Week 8 loss to the Falcons.
But it’s a completely different challenge Monday against a Kansas City Chiefs defense that ranks fifth in yards per play (5.1), 10th in defensive EPA per play (-.067), and 12th in dropback EPA (.001).
The Chiefs are undefeated at home in 2024; the Buccaneers are 0-3 in their last three ATS against teams with winning records.
Soppe’s SGP: Chiefs win with Buccaneers +8.5
Kyle Soppe’s Week 9 Betting Card
- Jets -1.5
- Cowboys/Falcons under 52
- Bills -6
- Raiders +7
- Chargers/Browns over 42.5
- Patriots +3.5
- Commanders/Giants under 43.5
- Saints/Panthers over 43.5
- Broncos/Ravens over 45.5
- SGP: Eagles -7.5 with Philadelphia over 26 points
- Bears +1
- Lions -3.5
- Rams/Seahawks under 48.5
- Colts +5
- SGP: Chiefs moneyline, Buccaneers +8.5
Note that all stats are from TruMedia unless otherwise stated.