Week 8 of the NFL season brings with it some very interesting betting lines and totals. We have the trends you need to know before locking in your wagers
With seven weeks of data, could Week 8 be our most profitable yet? Sportsbooks have installed plenty of road favorites and big spreads. This is a unique betting board, and I’m here to walk you through the NFL picks for every game.
All stats are from TruMedia unless otherwise stated.
Minnesota Vikings (-2.5, 48) at Los Angeles Rams (TNF)
- David Bearman: Vikings
- Mike Gambardella: Vikings
- Adam Beasley: Vikings
- Kyle Soppe: Vikings
Can the Vikings rebound from their first loss of the season as a road favorite against a Rams team that is set to welcome Cooper Kupp back?
The offenses will get most of the attention, but Minnesota’s defense could be the difference-maker. Matthew Stafford has struggled when blitzed over the past 3+ seasons, and an aggressive approach from the Vikings is one of the few things we can take for granted in a league that features several changes week over week.
Stafford’s yards per blitzed pass attempt
-
- 2021: 9.1 yards (137.6 passer rating)
- 2022: 7.5 yards (107.4 passer rating)
- 2023: 7.0 yards (82.4 passer rating)
- 2024: 6.7 yards (78.2 passer rating)
Since 2020, road favorites on Thursdays are 18-10 against the spread (64.3%), with the last four covers by those teams seeing the game go over the total.
If you wanted to create a same game parlay, be my guest. But because I’m forecasting more struggles from Stafford than fireworks on the other end, I’m sticking with the visiting team to cover as a solo bet.
Pick: Vikings -2.5
David Bearman: The Vikings might have lost last week in a tough matchup with the Lions, but they have showed they belong among the league’s top teams with wins over San Fran and Green Bay and the last second loss to Detroit. They have held a double-digit lead in all six games this season and might be getting TE T.J. Hockenson back.
The Rams should be getting some players back from injury, but are still a struggling team that is just scaping by. They have two wins, but by one score and have scored over 20 points once this season.
Laying here on the road doesn’t bother me too much as it is less than a FG and the Vikings are 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 on the road, including 2-0 this season. I have the Vikings about 5.5 points better than the Rams, so I will take the nice line here.
Pick: Vikings -2.5
Philadelphia Eagles at Cincinnati Bengals (-2, 48)
- Bearman: Bengals
- Gambardella: Bengals
- Beasley: Bengals
- Soppe: Eagles
When you look at this line, it might surprise you to see the 3-4 Bengals favored over the 4-2 Eagles after Philadelphia imposed its will over the Giants and have allowed just 19 points in the two weeks since coming out of their Week 5 bye.
That said, those were two of the worst expected points added (EPA) offenses in the NFL. Philadelphia now travels to face the sixth-best offense in the sport, led by Joe Burrow and his 8.3 yards per pass attempt over the past five games.
Jalen Hurts is a surprising 2-11-1 ATS (15.4%) in his past 14 games against teams that enter the game with a losing record, a box these Bengals check despite a 3-2 mark when both of their star receivers are healthy.
Pick: Bengals -3
Baltimore Ravens (-9, 44.5) at Cleveland Browns
- Bearman: Ravens
- Gambardella: Ravens
- Beasley: Ravens
- Soppe: Ravens
The Ravens look like an unstoppable force at this point, but this is a lot of points to lay in a divisional road game on short rest. Jameis Winston is going to get the start for the Browns, and his reckless nature is prohibitive in several ways. But I’m not sure that’s the case against the third-worst EPA pass defense in the NFL.
Cleveland’s run defense has improved recently, and, for me, that opens the back door. Even if Baltimore were to dominate this game and look to ice the game late, a late 16-point lead could turn into an eight-point win with a late punt and Winston starring in garbage time.
Lamar Jackson is 1-8 ATS (11.1%) in regular-season games as a favorite of more than seven points since 2021. And while I don’t think the Ravens are in danger of losing this game outright, there are many ways to cash this ticket. Baltimore is playing in its fourth city in four weeks, a stretch that started with bonus football in Cincinnati.
Pick: Browns +9
Tennessee Titans at Detroit Lions (-11, 45)
- Bearman: Lions
- Gambardella: Lions
- Beasley: Lions
- Soppe: Lions
Per our Week 8 Insights Stat Packet, “The Lions didn’t average more than 2.36 points per drive in any of their first three games this season. Since, however, they’ve been at 2.82 or better, averaging a difficult-to-comprehend 3.53 points per drive over that stretch.”
Kalif Raymond scores to extend the Lions lead!
📺: #DETvsMIN on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/VlmyxbeUOa— NFL (@NFL) October 20, 2024
Over its past 21 home games, Detroit is 15-6 ATS (71.4%), with overs coming through 14 times (66.7%), including three out of four games when the Lions are giving more than seven points.
The Titans have an above-average defense, but this was the fourth-worst EPA offense prior to the trading of DeAndre Hopkins. That could mean that the Lions only need 25 points to cover this number … they’re averaging 30.3.
Pick: Lions -11
Arizona Cardinals at Miami Dolphins (-3.5, 45.5)
- Bearman: Dolphins
- Gambardella: Dolphins
- Beasley: Dolphins
- Soppe: Cardinals
If you have a good handle on this game, you’re lying to yourself. None of us know what Tua Tagovailoa is going to look like in his return to action. What we do know is that Kyler Murray teams have thrived as underdogs in games with a reasonable projected total.
For his career, Murray is 22-11-1 ATS (66.7%) when catching points in a game with a total over 45 points. I’ll back that trend with the thought being that this 3-4 Cardinals team is better than their record suggests (losses to the Bills, Lions, Commanders, and Packers), and that the Dolphins might need some time to rediscover their high-flying form.
Pick: Cardinals +3
New York Jets (-7, 41) at New England Patriots
- Bearman: Patriots
- Gambardella: Jets
- Beasley: Jets
- Soppe: Jets
Stepping in front of Aaron Rodgers isn’t comfortable, especially with Davante Adams in the building for a full work week. However, this projects as a low-scoring game, and the Patriots’ offense has shown some juice since Drake Maye took over.
The Jets haven’t scored more than 24 points in a game this season and are averaging just 15.3 during their four-game skid. Do we trust them to score enough to cover a spread like this?
Rookie quarterbacks are 36-20-2 ATS (64.3%) over their past 58 games when playing at home with a total under 45 points. I don’t have a strong feel for this game, so I’ll side with history here and take a key number in a game with a low total.
Pick: Patriots +7
Atlanta Falcons (-2.5, 46) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Bearman: Falcons
- Gambardella: Buccaneers
- Beasley: Falcons
- Soppe: Falcons
Is the projected total for this game being inflated by the 36-30 thriller that these two teams played in Week 5?
I think so. That was an indoor game, played on short rest, that went to overtime, and featured star receivers that won’t be in the mix for the Buccaneers this time around. Yes, these same teams competed just three weeks ago, but they are two very different ones now.
What has the potential to be overlooked is Tampa Bay’s commitment to a three-back system, something that positions them to assume a higher rush rate over expectation than we’ve seen up to this point.
Since the start of last season, unders are 7-2 when Kirk Cousins starts in a game with a spread that is no larger than three points. If possessions are going to be limited, I think that trend continues.
Pick: Under 46
Green Bay Packers (-3.5, 49.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
- Bearman: Packers
- Gambardella: Packers
- Beasley: Packers
- Soppe: Packers
The Jaguars have traditionally performed better when returning from London than prior. If they are competitive against the Packers, it’s not because they are going blow-for-blow with Jordan Love.
Unders are 12-3 (80%) when Trevor Lawrence is a home underdog, a spot he finds himself in this week. Even if the Packers were to roll, I’m not sure this total comes in. Green Bay owns the sixth-best EPA defense this season and plays slower on the offensive end than the league average.
Jacksonville has failed to clear 20 points in all five of its losses, and if that continues, we’re in a good spot.
Pick: Under 49.5
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-5, 46)
- Bearman: Texans
- Gambardella: Texans
- Beasley: Colts
- Soppe: Texans
These two teams played in Week 1, a 29-27 Texans win. In that game, Nico Collins (six catches for 117 yards) helped open things up for Joe Mixon to run for 159 yards and a score. In that game, Houston had the ball for 40 minutes, won the turnover battle, and cashed in all of its red-zone trips — they won by two points.
The score was impacted by a pair of Anthony Richardson bombs, but that’s part of the risk you run when fading the Colts. Road teams have covered 16 of the past 23 AFC South divisional games (69.6%), and I’m worried about this Texans offense when it comes to covering a number like this.
C.J. Stroud ranks second in EPA per dropback against man coverage (0.36) but only 24th against zone (-0.11). Indianapolis plays zone coverage at the third-highest rate of any defense (78.7%).
Pick: Colts +5.5
New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Chargers (-7, 40.5)
- Bearman: Chargers
- Gambardella: Chargers
- Beasley: Chargers
- Soppe: Chargers
Six weeks ago, this spread might have been the exact opposite. The Saints were flying high and defending well, but neither of those things are happening right now.
The Chargers aren’t exciting, and covering a number like this for a team that has yet to see a game reach 40 points is certainly a concern. Nevertheless, it’s the defense that we are betting on here.
Los Angeles allows a score on just 25% of drives this season, the lowest rate in the NFL and 13 percentage points better than the league average. That puts Justin Herbert — 7-3 ATS (70%) when giving more than six points (15-17-1 otherwise) — in a position to make a few plays and get us home.
Pick: Chargers -7
Buffalo Bills (-3, 47) at Seattle Seahawks
- Bearman: Bills
- Gambardella: Bills
- Beasley: Bills
- Soppe: Bills
The Bills hung 34 points on the Titans last week in Amari Cooper’s debut, production that should have put the league on notice. Buffalo averaged just 17.7 points per game in its three games prior, but the addition of a star receiver makes the Bills a true title threat if you didn’t view them as such already.
That said, unders are 11-4 in Josh Allen’s last 15 games as a road favorite. Buffalo’s run game projects very favorably in this spot, which means the clock will be ticking. Seattle is likely to be playing without DK Metcalf and will be motivated to limit the number of possessions in this game, knowing that its best defense against Allen might be its offense.
Pick: Under 47
Carolina Panthers at Denver Broncos (-9.5, 41.5)
- Bearman: Broncos
- Gambardella: Broncos
- Beasley: Broncos
- Soppe: Broncos
I didn’t have “Bo Nix as a nine-point favorite” on my 2024 bingo card, and I certainly didn’t see myself backing such a spread, but here we are.
Rookie QBs favored by more than seven points have covered 13 of their past 19 games (68.4%), a shocking trend and one the points to the public not loving these spots — thus, betting the number off of what it “should” be.
Bo Nix is a SPECIAL talent.
The Broncos have a superstar QB in the making 🔥 pic.twitter.com/j3c4BrzkoH
— NFL Rookie Watch (@NFLRookieWatxh) October 22, 2024
Denver is coming off the mini-bye after a win last Thursday night, in which the Broncos got their run game going…and that’s the key.
If Javonte Williams can be efficient on the ground, it opens up the potential for Nix to pick apart this vulnerable secondary. And with Pat Surtain II likely back, do the Panthers get to 17 points? Even 14?
Pick: Broncos -9
Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5, 41.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
- Bearman: Chiefs
- Gambardella: Chiefs
- Beasley: Chiefs
- Soppe: Chiefs
One team brings in a star receiver, while the other lets one walk. The Chiefs continue to win by the slimmest of margins, which makes laying a big number difficult. Still, we do have a nice trend when it comes to the total.
Overs are 8-3 (72.7%) in Patrick Mahomes’ past 11 road divisional starts, and we have a few avenues to cashing this ticket. If this game is tight, that means that the Raiders put some points on the board, and we know the Chiefs can score late (27% more points per drive in the final 15 minutes than the first 45 this season).
Gardner Minshew II is back under center for Las Vegas. His style of play is more favorable to betting an over given his wider range of outcomes. He’s an aggressive QB who will push the envelope, and that’s all we can ask for — whether it works or not, it helps the scoring environment.
Pick: Over 41
Chicago Bears (-3, 43.5) at Washington Commanders
- Bearman: Commanders
- Gambardella: Bears
- Beasley: Commanders
- Soppe: Bears
Patience. We as a society lack it, and we are no different in the fantasy space. Caleb Williams was a mess to open his career, and that might be a disservice to the word “mess.”
Weeks 1-3
- 59.3% completion percentage
- 5.3 yards per attempt
- 65.3 passer rating
- 13.7 pressure passer rating
- 0.5 touchdown-to-interception rate
Williams’ struggles were magnified by Jayden Daniels’ immediate success (through those three weeks, Williams had the fourth-lowest passer rating in the NFL while Daniels had the fourth-highest). That, naturally, resulted in plenty of people writing him off as an impact fantasy asset in 2024.
But what’s this? A player who can develop with time?
Weeks 4-6
- 74.1% completion percentage
- 8.5 yards per attempt
- 122.8 passer rating
- 109.6 pressure passer rating
- 7.0 touchdown-to-interception rate
Since 2021, rookie quarterbacks have a winning ATS record as a road favorite (8-7), but let’s get creative. In seven of those covers, under tickets cashed.
I don’t want Williams to ruin my ticket in a game supporting him, so I’m isolating the Commanders’ team total as a way of leveraging that trend.
SGP: Bears ML with Commanders under 21 points
Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (-4, 46.5)
- Bearman: 49ers
- Gambardella: Cowboys
- Beasley: Cowboys
- Soppe: 49ers
How does a trend on a trend sound? Dak Prescott opened his career 15-8-1 ATS (65.2%) as an underdog, but he’s covered just two of his past 10 such spots in the regular season.
Prescott’s passer rating and touchdown rate are both pacing for career lows, numbers I’m not sure are going to normalize until Dallas’ offense gets either a run game they trust or a reliable WR2.
The 49ers are dealing with plenty of offensive injuries. That’s obviously a concern, but Brock Purdy has the ability to operate San Francisco’s offense on time and execute a game plan against this banged-up Cowboys defense.
Pick: 49ers -4
New York Giants at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5, 36)
- Bearman: Steelers
- Gambardella: Steelers
- Beasley: Steelers
- Soppe: Steelers
I don’t know about you, but I was very impressed with Russell Wilson in his season debut. He gave George Pickens the chance to win downfield while operating an otherwise conservative offense (75.9% of his passes came in below his average depth of throw).
With Najee Harris running hard, I think Pittsburgh’s offense actually has more upside than the numbers have shown up to this point.
Since 2019, teams favored by at least six points when the total closes under 38 points are 11-3 ATS (78.6%). Sportsbooks don’t generally miss when assigning big numbers like this in low-scoring games, and I don’t think they have here.
Malik Nabers is a potential game-wrecker, but we saw the Steelers’ defense hold CeeDee Lamb to just 7.4 yards per target in Week 5. If they can replicate that success, I like our chances.
Pick: Steelers -6.5