As we navigate the month of October, the weekly NFL picks become a different exercise. Early on, there’s a bunch of guesswork and attempts to project the unknown. Now, we are approaching the information evaluation portion of the season as we look to make the most of the data points provided to us and beat the books.
You up for it?
Within each game, you get our staff picks and my official Week 7 play for the game. Make it through the entire article, and you’ll get my best ATS/total pick for each game!
Pro Football Network’s Week 7 Predictions
All stats are from TruMedia unless otherwise stated.
Moneyline Picks
Denver Broncos at New Orleans Saints (TNF)
- David Bearman: Broncos
- Adam Beasley: Broncos
- Dallas Robinson: Broncos
- Kyle Soppe: Broncos
Who doesn’t love a coaching revenge game to open the week? Sean Payton is 19-8-1 against the spread (70.4%) in his last 28 instances as a road favorite, a role his Broncos take into this game against Spencer Rattler and the Saints.
The Bo Nix experience is unique and comes with ups and downs, but Denver has lost only three of its past 13 quarters and seems to be trending in the right direction under its rookie signal-caller.
Pick: Broncos -2.5
New England Patriots vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (London)
- Bearman: Jaguars
- Beasley: Jaguars
- Robinson: Patriots
- Soppe: Jaguars
The Jaguars struggle to score anywhere on the planet, but especially in London, where under tickets have cashed in six of their past seven games. Both of these defenses carry some upside, and that might be all it takes to get us to the finish line. Both offenses rank bottom 10 in points per drive as well as three-and-out rate.
Pick: Under 42.5
Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills
- Bearman: Bills
- Beasley: Bills
- Robinson: Bills
- Soppe: Bills
The Bills are 1-6 ATS in their past seven games with Josh Allen under center in which they were favored by more than seven points. They are 5-2 outright in those games; they’ve just struggled to win by margin.
The Titans are just 1-4 this season, but three of those losses have come by a single possession, and they are forcing their opposition to punt a league-high 50% of the time (NFL average: 34.8%).
Pick: Titans +9
Houston Texans at Green Bay Packers
- Bearman: Packers
- Beasley: Packers
- Robinson: Packers
- Soppe: Packers
Overs are 7-2-1 in Jordan Love’s past 10 starts against teams that entered the game with a winning record, a box 5-1 Houston certainly checks.
The Packers are the fourth-best yards-per-play offense this season despite one-third of their games being started by a backup QB. Meanwhile, the Texans have cashed in a league-high (tied with the Ravens) 75% of red-zone drives into six points.
Pick: Over 47.5
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants
- Bearman: Eagles
- Beasley: Eagles
- Robinson: Eagles
- Soppe: Eagles
Unders are 17-6-1 (73.9%) in Giants games with Daniel Jones, in which they are a home underdog. Both offenses have shown the ability to move the ball at times, but they’ve failed to score a touchdown on 10 of 18 trips to the red zone (55.6%, tied for the sixth-highest failure rate in such spots this season).
Pick: Under 43
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings
- Bearman: Lions
- Beasley: Lions
- Robinson: Lions
- Soppe: Lions
The Lions have covered 13 of their past 16 divisional games (81.3%), including a 6-0 mark over the Vikings during that stretch. Minnesota has been one of the more aggressive defenses for a few years now, a trend that has spilled over into 2024 with a 40.1% blitz rate, the second-highest in the league.
Jared Goff has now posted a near-perfect passer rating in back-to-back weeks. 🔥
Goff vs. DAL today:
🎯 315 passing yards, 3 TDs
🎯 72% completion percentage
🎯 153.8 passer ratingThe Lions dominated the Cowboys 47-9, improving to 4-1 this season. 💥 pic.twitter.com/DskOSM20dW
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 13, 2024
In specific matchups, that can prove advantageous, but it projects as a weakness against Detroit. Jared Goff owns a 137.5 passer rating when the defense brings the heat, completing 30 of 41 passes for 570 yards in the process (13.9 yards per attempt).
Pick: Lions +2.5
Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons
- Bearman: Falcons
- Beasley: Falcons
- Robinson: Seahawks
- Soppe: Falcons
Kirk Cousins’ team is just 4-10 ATS (28.6%) in games with a total of at least 50 points. He’s been productive after a difficult debut for the team, but the Falcons rank 26th in run defense EPA (expected points added). With a healthy Kenneth Walker III on the other sideline, this could be another tough time-of-possession game for an Atlanta team that ranks 31st in TOP as it is.
If this is a low-possession count, getting points with a team coming off the mini-bye (Seattle hosted San Francisco last Thursday night) becomes even more appealing.
Pick: Seahawks +3
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns
- Bearman: Bengals
- Beasley: Bengals
- Robinson: Bengals
- Soppe: Bengals
Unders are 10-3-1 in Cleveland’s past 14 home games. This is a weird spot to be with one of the worst defenses facing one of the worst defenses, but with Amari Cooper now in Buffalo, we could be looking at a historically ineffective Browns team.
Not all of Cincinnati’s defensive flaws have been ironed out, but the Bengals gave up just 4.2 yards per play in New York on Sunday night. If anything close to that version of their defense shows up this week, the Browns are going to struggle mightily to get to the 16 points for which they are implied.
Pick: Under 42
Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts
- Bearman: Colts
- Beasley: Colts
- Robinson: Colts
- Soppe: Colts
The Dolphins have failed to cover in five straight games when installed as the underdog, and with another Tyler Huntley start coming, it’s hard to operate with much in the way of confidence for the road team.
If we believe that the Dolphins are going to continue to struggle to put points on the board, the 10th-best offense by EPA should offer enough upside over the course of 60 minutes to cover a spread that currently lands on a key number. If this number shifts half a point in either direction, we could see lopsided action to bring the spread back to a round 3.0.
Pick: Colts -3
Carolina Panthers at Washington Commanders
- Bearman: Commanders
- Beasley: Commanders
- Robinson: Commanders
- Soppe: Commanders
Since 2007, rookie quarterbacks are 28-18-1 ATS (60.9%) when giving more than six points. It doesn’t happen often (just four times since the beginning of 2022), but when the sportsbooks give you a number like this with a young QB, it’s usually for a reason.
There is still plenty of time left in the season, but Washington is pacing for the second-best EPA offense since 2014 and could pull ahead of the 2018 Chiefs for the top spot on that leaderboard with a strong performance on Sunday.
Pick: Commanders -7.5
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Rams
- Bearman: Rams
- Beasley: Rams
- Robinson: Rams
- Soppe: Rams
Six straight Matthew Stafford starts in a game with a sub-45-point total have gone over the closing line. Cooper Kupp is slated to return to an offense that has managed to rank 13th in EPA through six weeks despite a variety of injuries.
I’m happy to buy low-ish on this Rams offense, and fading their defense isn’t a bad move either, even against a Davante Adams-less Raiders team. The average NFL defense allows a touchdown on 21.5% of drives; Los Angeles is sitting at 34%, a rate lower than only the hapless Panthers.
Pick: Over 43.5
Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers
- Bearman: 49ers
- Beasley: 49ers
- Robinson: 49ers
- Soppe: Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes is 11-1-1 ATS (91.7%), including the playoffs, as an underdog with 10 outright wins. This is more a process play than anything; both teams have the potential to look as good as any in the NFL, making the points enticing, especially coming off a bye.
This season, the Chiefs have the fourth-best second-half point differential (+31), while the 49ers rank 27th (-21). In a game we expect to be tight, one of these teams has proven much more trustworthy down the stretch than the other.
Pick: Chiefs +1.5
New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers
- Bearman: Steelers
- Beasley: Jets
- Robinson: Jets
- Soppe: Jets
Aaron Rodgers is 31-15-1 ATS (67.4%) as a prime-time favorite, with 11 covers in his most recent 14 such spots. All reports suggest that Adams will make his team debut in this game, and while a learning curve is to be expected, a few splash plays might be enough against a Steelers team that has failed to clear 20 points in four of six games.
The Aaron Rodgers-Davante Adams connection is BACK 🙌
(🎥: @NFL) pic.twitter.com/qzNt1FgKpF
— theScore (@theScore) October 15, 2024
Pittsburgh might undergo an offensive makeover as well. I’d rather an established Rodgers/Adams connection hold my money as they figure it out then back Russell Wilson, coming off his worst yards-per-attempt season, potentially making his season debut as the leader of a limited offense.
Pick: Jets -1.5
Baltimore Ravens at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (MNF)
- Bearman: Buccaneers
- Beasley: Ravens
- Robinson: Ravens
- Soppe: Ravens
Overs are 9-4 in Baker Mayfield’s career when the total closes at 48+ points. Additionally, the defensive struggles of the Bucs could put him in a position to have to be overly aggressive.
I’ll want to get confirmation that Mike Evans is active before locking in this bet, but if the story we are telling is that of Baltimore having offensive success and Tampa Bay playing catch-up against the 27th-ranked pass defense.
I’ll be invested in this being the highest scoring game of the week.
Pick: Over 48.5
Los Angeles Chargers at Arizona Cardinals (MNF)
- Bearman: Cardinals
- Beasley: Chargers
- Robinson: Chargers
- Soppe: Cardinals
Kyler Murray is 12-6 ATS (66.7%) as an underdog before the start of November, with a more neutral record in the second half of seasons. Marvin Harrison Jr. is banged up, but the Cardinals still have enough offensive firepower to have my trust against a team that ranks bottom 10 in points per drive, average drive distance, red-zone efficiency, and three-and-out rate.
If the Cardinals dictate tempo, I like them to win this game outright (+120), as this version of the Chargers simply doesn’t project well in that style.
Pick: Cardinals +2.5
Soppe’s Week 7 Betting Card
-
- Broncos -2.5
- Patriots/Jaguars under 42.5
- Titans +9
- Texans/Packers over 47.5
- Eagles/Giants under 43
- Lions +2.5
- Seahawks +3
- Bengals/Browns under 42
- Colts -3
- Commanders -7.5
- Raiders/Rams over 43.5
- Chiefs +1.5
- Jets -1.5
- Chargers/Buccaneers over 48.5
- Cardinals +2.5