Just four teams can be eliminated officially from the playoff race in NFL Week 14: The Jets, Browns, Titans, and Panthers.
But a number of other .500-or-below clubs absolutely cannot afford a loss, including the Los Angeles Rams, Miami Dolphins, and San Francisco 49ers.
Who keeps the dream alive? And who starts making plans for Cancun? Find out in PFN’s NFL Week 14 picks and predictions.
NFL Week 14 Predictions
All playoff and No. 1 pick percentages are courtesy of PFN’s Playoff Predictor.
Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions (-3, 51.5)
All that on-air passive-aggressive detachment by Al Michaels during some truly awful Thursday night games seems to have paid off because Amazon Prime’s schedule quality this year is through the roof.
This could be the best one yet. The Packers and Lions are two of the NFL’s top four teams, per PFN’s Power Rankings+ metric.
Barring catastrophe, both the Packers (96.4% to get into the playoffs) and the Lions (99.8%) will be playing in January. But Detroit — who punches its ticket with just a win or tie this week — has loftier goals: The No. 1 seed and the first-round bye that comes with it.
Thanks to their 10-game winning streak (including a 24-14 Week 9 victory over the Packers), the Lions are basically even money to land that 1 seed.
“We’re in playoff football right now,” Lions coach Dan Campbell said this week. “That’s where we’re at. We’re in December, and our schedule says that. We play tough opponent after tough opponent, we’ve got another one, we’ve got plenty of them coming up. This is the type of stuff that you live for. And it’s also the stuff that gets you ready for the tournament.”
- David Bearman: Packers
- Adam Beasley: Lions
- Dakota Randall: Packers
- Dallas Robinson: Lions
- Kyle Soppe: Packers
- Dan Tomaro: Lions
- Mike Wobschall: Lions
- Anthony DiBona: Packers
The Lions win in 57.6% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins (-6, 45)
The two most disappointing teams in the NFL face off at 1 p.m. Sunday in a game that is so underwhelming, it’ll air in the New York and Miami media markets — and basically nowhere else.
Just four months ago, the Jets (3-9 after eight losses in nine games) and Dolphins (5-7, and just 22% to make the playoffs) both had win totals of 9.5. After a disastrous turn of events this season, they might finish with 10 wins — combined.
If recent history is any guide, this game will be a snoozer. The Dolphins have won the last eight meetings at Hard Rock, with an average margin of victory of 11 points.
They certainly have an edge at quarterback. Tua Tagovailoa ranks second among all NFL quarterbacks this season (and 10th overall since 2019) in QB+ (95/100 rating). Rodgers, meanwhile, is 26th in 2024 QB+ (69.6).
- David Bearman: Dolphins
- Adam Beasley: Dolphins
- Dakota Randall: Dolphins
- Dallas Robinson: Dolphins
- Kyle Soppe: Dolphins
- Dan Tomaro: Dolphins
- Mike Wobschall: Dolphins
- Anthony DiBona: Dolphins
The Dolphins win in 61.8% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Minnesota Vikings (-5.5, 45.5)
The Vikings are just fine living on the edge. Sunday’s escape act against the Cardinals was their seventh one-score win of the season.
Is it sustainable? The same question was asked in 2022 when they won 11 one-score games and then lost to the Giants in the first round of the playoffs by — one score.
The big difference? The Vikings were 27th in DEF+ that year (71.6). In 2024, they’re third (89.2).
The Falcons, meanwhile, could have a quarterback issue. Kirk Cousins’ four interceptions in Week 13 were not only tied for the most of his career but the second-most of any quarterback in the playoff race in 2024. Cousins’ QB+ (73.1) is his lowest since 2019.
- David Bearman: Vikings
- Adam Beasley: Vikings
- Dakota Randall: Vikings
- Dallas Robinson: Vikings
- Kyle Soppe: Falcons
- Dan Tomaro: Vikings
- Mike Wobschall: Vikings
- Anthony DiBona: Vikings
The Vikings win in 72.9% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
New Orleans Saints (-4.5, 41) vs. New York Giants
The Giants are last in PR+, have lost seven straight, and are in full-fledged tank mode. They’re again starting Drew Lock — he of the 59.7% career completion percentage and 78.6 passer rating — at quarterback.
They have a whopping 30% chance of securing the No. 1 overall pick. They’re early underdogs in each of their final games, including by 13 points next week against the Ravens.
As for the Saints, they’re still playing hard for interim coach Darren Rizzi despite just a 3.5% chance of reaching the postseason.
Through nine weeks of the 2024 season, the Saints’ point differential was -21. In the three games since Dennis Allen’s dismissal, it’s been +17.
- David Bearman: Saints
- Adam Beasley: Saints
- Dakota Randall: Saints
- Dallas Robinson: Saints
- Kyle Soppe: Saints
- Dan Tomaro: Giants
- Mike Wobschall: Giants
- Anthony DiBona: Saints
The Saints win in 56.2% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Carolina Panthers vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-12, 46)
Are the Eagles the best team in football? A case certainly can be made based on how they’ve played since their Week 5 bye. Over their eight-game winning streak, they’re fourth in offensive EPA (.149 per play) and second in defensive EPA (-.161),
The race for the No. 1 seed will likely come down to the Eagles, Lions, and Vikings, and of those three, the Eagles have by far the easiest schedule (.433).
And they can secure their spot in the postseason 10 different ways this weekend, with the most straightforward being a win and losses by the Falcons, Cardinals, and Rams.
They should take care of business Sunday. Not only is their game the most lopsided point spread of the week, it’s also the biggest disparity in PR+ (the Eagles are second, the Panthers are 28th).
The Panthers’ tiny playoff hopes would end officially this week with a loss and a Falcons win.
- David Bearman: Eagles
- Adam Beasley: Eagles
- Dakota Randall: Eagles
- Dallas Robinson: Eagles
- Kyle Soppe: Eagles
- Dan Tomaro: Eagles
- Mike Wobschall: Eagles
- Anthony DiBona: Eagles
The Eagles win in 93% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5, 44)
These aren’t your older brother’s Pittsburgh Steelers. Sure, the defense still is the driving force, but Mike Tomlin’s team proved it can win a shootout in last week’s 44-38 win over the Cincinnati Bengals.
Russell Wilson’s performance in that game — 29 of 38, 414 yards, three touchdowns, and a QB+ of 84.4 — was arguably the best by a Steelers quarterback since Ben Roethlisberger retired.
The Steelers can’t technically clinch a place in the postseason this week, but a win over Jameis Winston and the pesky Browns would put them on the precipice (they are 95.8% to get in entering Week 14).
The Browns, meanwhile, are live underdogs basically any time Winston is under center. Winston has gone over 300 passing yards in three of his last five games. A loss or tie would formally eliminate them from the playoff race.
- David Bearman: Steelers
- Adam Beasley: Steelers
- Dakota Randall: Steelers
- Dallas Robinson: Steelers
- Kyle Soppe: Steelers
- Dan Tomaro: Browns
- Mike Wobschall: Steelers
- Anthony DiBona: Steelers
The Steelers win in 75.7% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5, 46.5)
Give the Raiders this: They showed fight in their last-second loss to the Chiefs on Black Friday. But it’s tough to imagine they’ll have the same kind of fire for a non-conference, non-rivalry game on the road with a 1 p.m. ET start.
The Raiders have lost eight straight, including their last five on the road.
They are bottom six league-wide in both OFF+ and DEF+, and they enter Week 14 with a 12.1% chance to land the No. 1 pick.
The Buccaneers, meanwhile, have righted the ship with consecutive wins after a four-game losing streak. Offense is rarely the issue (they’re third in OFF+). But they can’t win when they can’t get stops. In their six victories, they have allowed 109 points. In their six losses? 187.
- David Bearman: Buccaneers
- Adam Beasley: Buccaneers
- Dakota Randall: Buccaneers
- Dallas Robinson: Buccaneers
- Kyle Soppe: Buccaneers
- Dan Tomaro: Buccaneers
- Mike Wobschall: Buccaneers
- Anthony DiBona: Buccaneers
The Buccaneers win in 70.1% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans (-3.5, 39.5)
The Jaguars’ season has been cooked for weeks, but Sunday’s terrifying hit to QB Trevor Lawrence’s head was easily their worst moment of the year.
Lawrence’s season is over; he will get a head start on the offseason by undergoing needed surgery to repair the AC joint in his non-throwing shoulder.
That means the rest of the Jaguars’ season is in Mac Jones’ hands. If nothing else, that should help Jacksonville’s chances at the No. 1 pick (which currently stand at 10.6%). Lawrence was a below-average quarterback in 2024 (26th in EPA+CPOE, .060); Jones has been a downright dreadful one (40th, .008).
The Titans, meanwhile, probably need a new plan at quarterback in 2025. While Will Levis has been better as of late — he’s thrown seven touchdowns to two interceptions and averaged 8.3 yards per attempt in his last four games — QB+ in Year 2 (64.3) is actually lower than Year 1 (68.7).
- David Bearman: Titans
- Adam Beasley: Titans
- Dakota Randall: Jaguars
- Dallas Robinson: Jaguars
- Kyle Soppe: Titans
- Dan Tomaro: Titans
- Mike Wobschall: Titans
- Anthony DiBona: Titans
The Titans win in 59% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals (-3, 44.5)
If you feel like you just saw this game, you’re right. The Seahawks and Cardinals are meeting for the second time in 15 days. Seattle won the Week 12 meeting 16-6 by holding Arizona to just 3 of 12 on third downs and 0 of 2 in the red zone.
The Seahawks (7-5 and 32% to win the division) can put some real daylight between themselves and the field in an NFC West that remains insanely competitive, even with the wheels falling off for the 49ers.
A win would put them up two games plus the tiebreaker over the Cardinals (6-6) with four weeks to go. While Seattle would still have the Rams to deal with, the Seahawks could have the division wrapped up ahead of their Week 18 showdown with L.A.
After a torrid stretch midway through the season, Kyler Murray appears to have come back to earth. He’s thrown three interceptions in the last two games after throwing three in his first 10. Still, the Cardinals are sixth in OFF+ on the season and are better than a coin flip to make the playoffs.
- David Bearman: Cardinals
- Adam Beasley: Seahawks
- Dakota Randall: Cardinals
- Dallas Robinson: Cardinals
- Kyle Soppe: Cardinals
- Dan Tomaro: Seahawks
- Mike Wobschall: Seahawks
- Anthony DiBona: Cardinals
The Cardinals win in 60.4% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Buffalo Bills (-4, 49.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams
It’s blowout season in Buffalo. During their active seven-game winning streak, the Bills’ average margin of victory has been 13.6 points.
The Bills have already secured at least one home playoff game. But they have a real chance (30.3%) at home-field advantage throughout.
Still a game back of the Chiefs and with the Lions looming in Week 15, they absolutely cannot afford a letdown against a Rams team that has won 5 of 7.
Despite their .500 record, the Rams know that they’d capture the division — and the home playoff game that comes with it — by winning out. Of course, that path begins by beating a Bills team that’s top-five in PR+ and OFF+.
- David Bearman: Bills
- Adam Beasley: Bills
- Dakota Randall: Bills
- Dallas Robinson: Bills
- Kyle Soppe: Bills
- Dan Tomaro: Bills
- Mike Wobschall: Bills
- Anthony DiBona: Bills
The Bills win in 63.2% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Chicago Bears vs. San Francisco 49ers (-4, 44)
Both of these teams are a mess. Since we last saw the Bears on Thanksgiving night, they took the extraordinary step (for them) of firing their coach (Matt Eberflus) in-season.
Will interim coach Thomas Brown benefit from the sugar high that often comes with such a change? Probably not.
The Bears were 0-5 on the road in 2024 under Eberflus, but four of those losses were by a combined 17 points, including the failed comeback in Detroit last Thursday.
The Niners, meanwhile, are in a tailspin. Their best player (Christian McCaffrey) is out for the season, and they’ve been outscored by 53 by contenders Green Bay and Buffalo in the last two weeks. Kyle Shanahan is looking to avoid his first four-game losing streak since 2021.
- David Bearman: Bears
- Adam Beasley: 49ers
- Dakota Randall: 49ers
- Dallas Robinson: 49ers
- Kyle Soppe: 49ers
- Dan Tomaro: Bears
- Mike Wobschall: 49ers
- Anthony DiBona: Bears
The 49ers win in 60.4% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-4, 42.5)
It’s a hat and t-shirt game at Arrowhead Sunday night.
With a win over the Chargers, the Chiefs will secure their record ninth-straight AFC West championship and keep them on track for the 1 seed.
Kansas City enter Week 14 with a 60.6% chance of securing home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. But Andy Reid’s bunch will have to earn it. Four of their last five games are against teams currently in the playoff field.
That list includes the Chargers, who are 6-2 since their Week 4 loss to the Chiefs (17-10). Jim Harbaugh’s team has survived uneven offensive performances thanks to the NFL’s sixth-best defensive dropback EPA per play (-.017) since their Week 5 bye.
Los Angeles’ four losses this year have been against teams that are combined 19 games over .500.
- David Bearman: Chiefs
- Adam Beasley: Chargers
- Dakota Randall: Chargers
- Dallas Robinson: Chiefs
- Kyle Soppe: Chiefs
- Dan Tomaro: Chiefs
- Mike Wobschall: Chiefs
- Anthony DiBona: Chiefs
The Chiefs win in 60.4% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5, 49.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys
The Simpsons Game is basically an elimination game. The Cowboys will officially be out of NFC East contention and three games out of the No. 7 seed with a loss.
The Bengals mathematically could survive a loss, but who are we kidding? Cincinnati entered Week 14 three games back of the No. 7 seed in the loss column with just a 4.6% chance of getting in.
The over/under suggests a shootout, and the numbers back that up. The Bengals are dreadful on defense (30th in DEF+, 28th in points allowed), and the Cowboys actually looked competent with Cooper Rush the last two weeks.
Dallas’ 61 points the last two weeks are tied for the fifth-most in the NFL, behind only the Broncos, Packers, Commanders, and Steelers.
- David Bearman: Cowboys
- Adam Beasley: Bengals
- Dakota Randall: Bengals
- Dallas Robinson: Bengals
- Kyle Soppe: Bengals
- Dan Tomaro: Cowboys
- Mike Wobschall: Bengals
- Anthony DiBona: Bengals
The Bengals win in 54.9% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Percentage of Games Correctly Picked Through Week 13
- Mike Wobschall: 70%
- Kyle Soppe: 67%
- Anthony DiBona: 66%
- Dallas Robinson: 64.4%
- Adam Beasley: 63.9%
- David Bearman: 62.3%
- Dan Tomaro: 58.8%
- Dakota Randall: 58.2%