One of the most common questions I get every summer is, “What slot do I want to pick from in my fantasy football draft?”
Statistically, the earlier you draft, the higher the hit rate of your first pick, and that typically correlates with success.
That said, the way draft boards are shaking out early in the process, I love how my drafts from the turn look.
Fantasy Football Draft: 12th Overall
Annually, I like picking at either end of snake drafts because I get to dictate runs. Whether it is starting or ending them, I feel that I have the most control from these spots, and we are all, at some levels, seeking control — hence the push for auction leagues in recent years.
No matter where you draft, it’s difficult to get two Tier 1 RB/WR options with your first two picks. Typically, the top tier of each position is five fewer players, thus making drafting two of them in a 12-team league a tall task.
Based on ADPs and the overall approach of most, getting two running backs that I have ranked as borderline Tier 1 players is very possible.
Rounds 1-2: Saquon Barkley and Jonathan Taylor
The Philadelphia Eagles have been a top-seven scoring offense in consecutive seasons, and the Indianapolis Colts, without their star quarterback for 13 games, finished 11th in points per game a season ago, ahead of the Packers, Texans, and Chiefs, to name a few.
Offensive environment isn’t everything, but it’s a good place to start. And I don’t think there’s any denying that both of these former All-Pros are in advantageous spots.
READ MORE: Saquon Barkley’s Fantasy Value: Impact of the Philadelphia Eagles Acquiring Seventh-Year RB
Can the Eagles which their lofty projected win total? Only time will tell on that front. But regardless of the number in the win column, I expect Barkley to have a good time leading this offense.
And yes, I said “leading.” D’Andre Swift carried the rock 78 more times in 2023 than he did in any of his four seasons with the Lions, yet he was able to sustain his career efficiency (4.6 yards per carry) thanks to the numerous ways the Eagles’ offense threatens defenses.
With Jalen Hurts’ unique skill set, Philadelphia spreads out defenses via shotgun snaps, a tendency that should work well given how good we’ve seen Barkley be in space.
Since 2021, offenses with 70% of first down snaps in shotgun
- 2021 Eagles: 73%
- 2022 Eagles: 72%
- 2023 Eagles: 70%
That’s the entire list. Barkley’s Giants didn’t clear 50% in any of his three seasons since his ACL tear in 2020, but they did trend up over that stretch, and it helped him total 1,242 yards and 10 scores in 14 games while playing for the third-worst scoring offense in the league.
As for Taylor, there’s no reason to get cute. He navigated injuries last season, and that has suppressed some of the excitement around him for 2024. But I’m full speed ahead. Around those bumps and bruises, JT averaged 21.4 carries for 97.4 rushing yards and ran for a touchdown in his final five games last season. In his first five games, he averaged 6.8 PPR PPG as a pass catcher.
I’m not saying Taylor will combine those two stretches, but that sort of production is in the range of outcomes for a 25-year-old back with elite seasons already on his résumé.
If you extend that rushing yardage number and his reception numbers from that first stretch for a full season, we are talking about over 1,600 rushing yards in addition to 50+ catches. If you were wondering, that stat line has been accomplished one single time since DeMarco Murray did it back in 2014 (Josh Jacobs in 2022).
The combination of floor and ceiling for both of these backs makes them solid picks at this point in the proceedings. My thought as to why managers will lean away from this strategy is the roster construction portion of it, so let’s walk through what that looks like.
Rounds 3-4: Mike Evans and Cooper Kupp
In opening my draft RB-RB, I want stability at the receiver position. I understand that drafting a pair of playmakers entering their age-31 seasons isn’t ideal, but I’m much more willing to overlook the age curve at WR than any other skill player, especially with these two.
What more needs to be said about Evans? He’s done it every year of his career despite a ton of change under center.
Evans owns the NFL record for consecutive 1,000-yard seasons to open a career and has reached a baker’s dozen in terms of touchdowns in three of the past four seasons. Baker Mayfield proved plenty capable of getting Evans the ball often (79 catches, his most since 2018) and down the field (15.9 yards per catch, his most since 2019) — why would we expect that to change?
As for Kupp, we need to take a deep breath. The future Hall of Famer had a poor five-game stretch. That’s it. We are ready to tank his projections because of five games, after coming back from an injury in an offense that was adjusting on the fly based on Puka Nacua’s surprise Day 1 impact?
If using a five-game sample is reason enough to panic, shouldn’t the surrounding seven games be just as impactful? Maybe more?
If you extend Kupp’s seven games from last season that weren’t a part of that slump over a 17-game pace:
- 114 catches
- 1,481 yards
- 12 touchdowns
That’s on par with what Davante Adams and Stefon Diggs did a season ago, yet Kupp’s ADP resides in the tier of DeVonta Smith and Tank Dell. You could argue that those two have a clearer path to a ceiling season due to youth, but I’m happy to take the floor that I still give Kupp credit for, understanding that there is still potential for a WR1 season.
Rounds 5-6: Terry McLaurin and Kyle Pitts
The Washington Commanders were featured in my “A Best Bet To Lock in Now Ahead of the NFL Schedule Release” article, and I stand by that trajectory.
It has nothing to do with what they can accomplish in our fantasy game. In fact, I’m actually willing to be ahead of the market on this offense as a whole as we approach the Jayden Daniels era.
Terry McLaurin pic.twitter.com/NXwVSA6Csi
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) May 7, 2024
What is McLaurin more than a complicated version of Garrett Wilson? That is an ultra-talented receiver who has been able to produce — four straight seasons with over 75 catches and 1,000 yards — that is the clear alpha pass catcher in an offense with more upside under center this year than at any point in his career prior.
If Daniels is ready to produce at a high level, rostering McLaurin is like holding pre-pandemic Apple Stock. If not, we just get a clone of the past four seasons, and the losses are minimal.
McLaurin is exactly the type of receiver I want in this build. Keep reading and see why I like this pick more than just the trajectory.
During each of his seasons in Minnesota, Kirk Cousins fed three players five or more touchdown passes. If that trend continues through 2024, Pitts is going to at least double his career touchdown count in games played on American soil.
He’s flirting with six targets per game for his career alongside an elite aDOT (average depth of target) for the position, so if we can finally add touchdown equity to his profile, Pitts is set to return value on his ADP.
There’s naturally scar tissue that comes with going back to Pitts, but with the offensive personnel changing, I’m trying to look at this high-pedigree 23-year-old tight end objectively. The path is there for him to experience a breakout in the way Trey McBride did down the stretch of last season but for an entire year.
Rounds 7-8: Chiefs WR and your RB3
We’ve got the basis for a starting lineup rostered now, making this turn a spot to build out some depth.
All three Kansas City Chief receivers are going in this range, something that figures to change as we gain clarity on the Rashee Rice legal situation.
If not, I’m 100% in on Rice at this price (TD or nine-plus targets in five straight games down the stretch). If he’s not available, it’s a “choose your own adventure” situation for KC’s WR2. Do you prefer Marquise Brown and his 72 career games of NFL experience, or the record-breaking speed of rookie Xavier Worthy, the 28th overall pick?
That answer depends on your risk tolerance. Brown is the “safer” option, while Worthy holds the “breakout in a big way like Rice did last season” profile. I perceive the trio of receivers already on our roster as safe, so I’m happy to roll the dice on the kid Worthy. But I understand that we all draft differently, and I have no issue going in the other direction here.
Part of my willingness to take on some risk is the high-floor nature of the running backs we are looking at. Jaylen Warren and Zack Moss could well turn into featured backs while Tony Pollard and Raheem Mostert come with a level of security in that they will be involved in some capacity.
Moss is my favorite of the bunch due to his proximity to a role that would be worthy of a spot in my weekly lineup, but this tier of back is one I am comfortable with in the middle rounds that can at least compete for my flex spot.
Rounds 9-10: Jayden Daniels and Mike Williams
Call me crazy, but drafting an elite athlete with an unquestioned role is something I like to do.
There will be peaks and valleys, but Daniels’s profile is one I want to invest in early, and the schedule plays out perfectly if you pair him with a specific quarterback a few rounds later.
READ MORE: Fantasy Football Sleepers: The QB Tandem to Draft Late
First Pitts and now Williams.
This draft might have Charlie Brown kicking a football written all over it, but that negative perception is factored into the price. Over Aaron Rodgers’ past two healthy seasons, he’s funneled over five targets per game to a WR2 standing at least 6’2″ (Romeo Doubs in 2022 and Marquez Valdes-Scantling in 2021).
There is risk involved (health or otherwise) with any player you pick at this point, making this as good a time as any to take someone like Williams. Over his past 12 games with over five targets earned, Williams has produced 1.885 PPR fantasy points per target.
- 2023 DK Metcalf: 1.895 points per target
- 2023 AJ Brown: 1.858 points per target
Obviously, Williams isn’t those guys. But the idea that he can be that level efficient is encouraging outside of the first 100 picks. What if we used a receiver over 6’ tall operating as the clear-cut WR2 in a new offense as a data point?
- 2023 Jakobi Meyers: 1.884 points per target
If we get Meyers’ numbers (71-807-8 in 16 games) from Williams at this spot, we’re profiting and that’s without adjusting for the potential that Aaron Rodgers returns to even 80% of his pre-injury form.
Rounds 11-12: _____________ and Brandin Cooks
In these later rounds, I like leaving a spot open to allow for the board to fall to me. Including the playoffs, Cooks saw at least five targets or scored in eight straight games to end last season and his role really isn’t in question.
The Cowboys were fourth in PROE (Pass Rate Over Expectation) last season and Cooks had twice as many red zone looks in 2023 as any Cowboy not named Lamb. It was clear that the veteran had the trust of Dak Prescott (72.7% catch rate on third downs), making me think that he’s a fine option when you’re evaluating flex options week over week.
Rounds 13-14: Baker Mayfield and ___________
Check out the article listed under the profile of Daniels.
TL;DR: His schedule lines up nicely with that of Daniels, and if you’re a believer in the value of matchups, that tandem combine could return QB1 value.
Roster
- QB: Jayden Daniels (Baker Mayfield)
- RB: Jonathan Taylor
- RB: Saquon Barkley
- WR: Mike Evans
- WR: Cooper Kupp
- WR: Terry McLaurin
- TE: Kyle Pitts
- Flex: RB3/Chiefs WR
- Flex: Mike Williams/Brandin Cooks
- Bench: 11th Round Pick
- Bench: 14th Round Pick
