Following a Week 17 destruction of the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Patriots have clinched their spot in the playoffs. Let’s take a look at their Week 18 matchup against the Miami Dolphins, the NFL odds, and make a pick and prediction.
New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins pick, prediction | Week 18
- Spread: Patriots -7 (Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Moneyline: Patriots -300, Dolphins +235
- Over/Under: 40
Patriots back in the postseason
After a rocky 1-3 start to the year, the New England Patriots found their form. They now sit at 10-6 and the No. 5 seed in the AFC. They’ve won eight of their last 10 games, and rookie quarterback Mac Jones has settled into his role effectively.
Not only that, but New England is seeing the benefits of a strong offseason. Free agent additions such as linebacker Matt Judon have helped bring the franchise back to where everybody expects them to be — playing football in January. With both the Bills and the Patriots at 10-6, the division title is still up for grabs. Also up for grabs? The AFC crown and the No. 1 seed.
[bet-promo id=”160605″ ]There is just one game between the No. 1 and No. 5 seed in the AFC, with Tennessee currently holding the top spot. However, for the Patriots to finish the No. 1 seed, they need to win, have the Texans beat the Titans, the Jets beat the Bills, the Broncos beat the Chiefs, and the Browns beat the Bengals. All of that seems…unlikely.
Unless the Bills lose to the Jets, the Patriots will remain the No. 5 seed, even if they beat the Dolphins. Either way, they will need to be ready for a tough postseason route to the Super Bowl in a conference that is totally up for grabs.
Dolphins need a strong finish for postseason momentum
The Dolphins have not been able to shake the media amidst constant controversy around the quarterback position. The belief is that they will once again pursue Deshaun Watson, should he clear his name in the offseason. But what about Tua Tagovailoa?
Tua has had a tough start to his pro career, and he’s barely had a chance to feel like he is the one and only quarterback of the Miami Dolphins. After a rough day in Week 17, all he can do is finish strong and force the Dolphins to consider what they’re doing before they give up on him.
As for the defense, they’re looking like their 2020 selves right now. They could give Jones plenty to worry about on Sunday. Miami has drafted well on the defensive side, with Jevon Holland already looking like an elite safety and pass rusher Jaelan Phillips looking better and better.
Will the defense be the difference come game time, and can they slow down New England’s dominant run game?
Patriots vs. Dolphins betting trends
These two end the season as they started it — against each other. In the Week 1 matchup, the Dolphins won the game despite being 3.5-point underdogs. The contest itself cashed the under by 10 points. The game line was marked at 43 points, with the final score being 17-16 Miami.
The Patriots have won eight of their last 10 games, both outright and against the spread (ATS). New England is 8-8 on over/unders.
On the other side, the Dolphins have also won six of their last eight games, as the defense has come together. Jaylen Waddle continues to help carry the offense. Tua struggled last week against the Titans, but he had shown some promising signs prior to that.
The Dolphins are 8-7-1 ATS this season and favor the under for the year, with a 6-10 record cashing overs.
Patriots vs. Dolphins prediction
I think the Patriots will win the game despite it being in Miami. However, I will take the Dolphins with the spread because I anticipate a low-scoring affair. Both defenses are excellent, and both QBs will have their work cut out moving the football.
The difference in the game is one team has a run game capable of wearing out a defense, while the other simply does not. Miami must address their run game in the offseason, as years of neglect continue to cost them offensively.
Patriots vs. Dolphins Score Prediction: Patriots 20, Dolphins 16