After picking up their first win of the season last week, the New England Patriots will try and get to .500 this weekend with a visit to a Dallas Cowboys team that is trying to avoid falling to .500. Let’s look at the odds for this matchup.
Our Betting Lines page has the freshest lines and promos to get BANG for your buck. PFN’s FREE Parlay Calculator and Betting Odds Calculator are also available for your betting process! New to sports betting? Check out our guide on How to Bet on the NFL. Visit our Sports Betting Legal Tracker on how to bet legally in the U.S.
Patriots vs. Cowboys Betting Lines, Start Time, and More
All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Spread: Cowboys -7
- Moneyline: Patriots (+230); Cowboys (-285)
- Over/Under: 43.5
- Game time: 4:25 p.m. ET
- Location: AT&T Stadium
- Channel: FOX
Patriots vs. Cowboys Prediction
While there are some interesting storylines surrounding this matchup, including the return of running back Ezekiel Elliott to Dallas, the reality is that the Patriots-Cowboys matchup looks like one between two of the best defensive teams in the league.
After three weeks, the Cowboys have the fourth-best defense in the NFL, allowing only 262.0 yards per game. Right behind them, however, are the Patriots, who are fifth in yards per game allowed (270.3), despite already having a game against the high-octane Dolphins on their schedule résumé.
Offensively, the two teams are also near each other in the rankings, with the Cowboys just outside the top 10 in total offense (354.3 YPG, 11th) and the Patriots not far behind (347.2 YPG, 13th).
The difference is Dallas was supposed to possess a top-five or top-10 offense, and for much of this season, it hasn’t looked that type of unit. Fans got caught up in the 70-10 combined score of the Cowboys’ first two games and did not look deeper into those contests.
MORE: NFL Week 4 Odds and Betting Trends Against the Spread for Every Game
In the season opener, Dallas scored 40 points but did not come close to 300 yards of offense (265). In Week 2, they may have put 30 points on the Jets’ defense, but half of those were the result of five field goals. And the story behind that game was the Dallas defense forcing four turnovers.
The Cowboys’ best offensive showing came last week (416 yards), and that was in a game in which they were blown out as double-digit favorites by the then-winless Cardinals.
In the end, this is not how you want your offense to be playing when you have to face a Bill Belichick defense, one that appears to be clicking this season. Last week’s defensive domination of the Jets wasn’t a huge surprise, given New York’s quarterback situation.
But the Patriots have still held the Eagles to under 300 yards of offense (251), and it turns out that holding the Dolphins to 24 points might be their best defensive performance of the three games.
For me, what this comes down to is, can the Patriots score enough to keep this close or pull this game out?
New England has not scored more than 20 points in any of its first three games and has just 32 points combined over its last two. Quarterback Mac Jones (87.7 passer rating, five TD passes, two interceptions) has been good but not great.
But a good effort by Jones might be enough to outduel Dak Prescott and the Cowboys.
Behold, my upset special of the week. Take the Pats straight up.
Best Bet: Patriots on the Moneyline (+230 at DraftKings SportsBook)