In a matchup that very well could decide the No. 1 overall pick, the New England Patriots, fresh off their Week 8 win over the New York Jets, will take on the one-win Tennessee Titans.
Here are our betting picks and predictions from Fantasy Analysts Kyle Soppe and Jason Katz and Chief Content Officer David Bearman on the Patriots vs. Titans matchup.
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of Oct. 31, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated.
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New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans (-3.5, 38)
Bearman: This was the first game I targeted when I saw the matchup this week. You have two of the worst offenses in football doing battle, which automatically means an under for me.
- Yards per game: Tennessee 30th, Patriots 32nd
- Passing: Tennessee 31st, Patriots 32nd
- Scoring: Titans 28th, Patriots 30th
- PFN’s Offensive+: Titans 28th, Patriots 31st
Any way you slice it, these teams aren’t any good. The Patriots got over the total last week vs. the Jets with a late TD against a fading defense.
Am I concerned that the Titans have given up 86 points in the last two games? That was vs. Josh Allen and Jared Goff — I am not concerned. These teams could play six quarters and not sure they’d get to this number.
Pick: Under 38
Soppe: I thought there was a chance this game would be a pick’em if for no other reason than favoring either of these teams doesn’t feel comfortable, so I’ll take the points and check back in on this game in the fourth quarter.
The 1-6 Titans find themselves in a very unique spot as a favorite given their lack of success, and that lines them up as a fade.
0-8; That’s the recent ATS record of teams favored despite having at least five more losses than wins in their eighth game or later of the season. Is that oddly specific? Of course it is, but this is a weird game, and I’m happy to clear a key number in a game with a sub-40 total.
I suspect that neither of these teams hesitates to blitz this week, given the quarterback limitations, a strategy that fits the Patriots (15th in pressure rate when bringing the heat) more than the Titans (30th).
I think I’m getting points in a low-scoring game in which I have the better (or less bad) QB situation, and that’s good enough for me!
Pick: Patriots +3.5
Stats and Insights: Fantasy, Betting, and Other Notes
New England Patriots
Team: The Patriots beat the Jets on Sunday with 247 yards of offense. Surprisingly, that was the eighth time in eight weeks a team has won with under 250 yards of offense (the Denver Broncos also did it to the Jets in Week 4).
QB: Jacoby Brissett has yet to clear 5.5 yards per attempt in a game this season and has two touchdown passes on 159 attempts (Will Levis thinks that’s a low rate; he has five on 125 attempts this season).
Offense: The Patriots have converted six of seven red-zone trips into touchdowns over the past three weeks (Weeks 1-5: 4 of 13).
Defense: New England’s defensive game plan adjusts as much week over week as any. They blitzed 17.2% of the time last Sunday; they’ve been at 25%, the lowest in four games, but also at 40% or the highest in three games, including Weeks 6-7.
Fantasy: Rhamondre Stevenson scored a pair of touchdowns on Sunday, but his 27 carries over the past two weeks have gained just 66 yards, and if Drake Maye misses time, even more running lanes are likely to close.
Betting: The Patriots are 1-3 ATS on the road this season. They’ve had plenty of issues since Tom Brady left town, but they’ve yet to have a losing ATS road record since his departure.
Tennessee Titans
Team: The Titans have been blown out in back-to-back weeks by Super Bowl contenders, but they own a +9 point differential this season in three games that are sub-.500 this season.
QB: Mason Rudolph averaged 15.6 yards per pass in the first quarter against Detroit and 3.9 the rest of the way.
Offense: The Titans converted 46.2% of their third downs in 2020. That number dipped to 43.6% in 2021, 36.5% in 2022, and 33.5% in 2023. Through eight weeks this season? The trend continues: 30.6%.
Defense: Tennessee has failed to force a turnover in five of seven games this season.
Fantasy: Calvin Ridley had 118 first-quarter receiving yards, the 10th most in a first quarter since the start of 2015. He entered the game with 56 receiving yards in his four games prior.
Betting: The Titans have failed to cover in all three home games this season and are just 1-5-1 ATS over their past seven in front of their fans.