The New England Patriots will face the Arizona Cardinals in Week 15. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Patriots skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 15 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Drake Maye, QB
There’s a lot to like here, that much we know. Drake Maye’s athleticism creates highlights, but don’t overlook the fact that he has completed at least 80% of his non-pressured passes in three of his past four games. The Patriots seem to have found “their guy” for years to come, but let’s not put the cart before the horse.
For the season, Maye has one finish better than QB12 this season (Week 7). He’s averaging 5.6 fantasy points per game with his legs over his past six games, and that includes a game he left early — there certainly is some cheatcode potential in this profile.
Part of what makes an athletic QB dangerous is not what he does with his legs, but how he is defended due to the fear of his legs. Look at Anthony Richardson. Why has he been able to hit some home run pass plays this season?
Spoiler alert, it’s not because of his precision as a thrower. Whether you want to blame it on Maye directly or supporting cast limitations, I don’t really care — he’s not feared down the field right now. Through eight starts (nine appearances), he’s completed just nine-of-38 deep passes (23.7%) with three interceptions.
The Cardinals are a top-12 defense in most long pass metrics this season. Until Maye starts to pick up production in that regard, I’m going to have a hard time trusting him with my fantasy season on the line.
You could do worse, but I prefer the floor that Brock Purdy and Jared Goff types offer, even if the theoretical ceiling isn’t quite the same.
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB
Rhamondre Stevenson finished three of his first five games this season as an RB1, but he’s been better than the RB18 in just two games since. Those extended struggles include his last four contests, a run of games that has seen him produce 33.7% fewer fantasy points than expected.
The hole in this profile is one that I thought we could look past coming into the season. During this recent four-game dip in value, Stevenson has just 42 receiving yards, a lack of versatility that is concerning when you consider that Drake Maye is going to soak up some of the rushing and scoring equity.
The fact that I don’t trust the Cardinals to pull ahead in a significant way and that they rank as the fourth-worst run defense per success rate has me ranking Stevenson as a viable Flex option.
Is that more of a situational ranking than a talent play? It is, and there’s nothing wrong with that — you need to beg, borrow, and steal to get your fantasy points this time of year.
DeMario Douglas, WR
DeMario Douglas hasn’t reached 65 receiving yards since Week 6, as he fills a weird void of a traditionally consistent role in a non-traditional offense that lacks consistency.
That’s simply not ideal. Douglas’ 77.4% catch rate since the beginning of November is a step in the right direction for PPR managers, and a matchup against a Cardinals defense that ranks below league average when defending the slot in yards per attempt, yards per completion, and touchdown rate is far from intimidating.
You’re grasping for straws to a degree (one game with 12 expected PPR points over his past seven, and only one of his 341 routes has netted an end-zone target). But desperate PPR managers have a path to a handful of catches in an offense that has a higher implied total this week than normal, given the opponent and favorable forecast.
Kendrick Bourne, WR
Kendrick Bourne saw his snap share increase in consecutive games before the Week 14 bye, and his recent efficiency has been noteworthy (11 catches on 13 targets). The early returns in his connection with Drake Maye are encouraging, and I think we could be looking at a sneaky late-round pick this summer (assuming he remains with the team) as a veteran option on a developing offense — but for this winter, you should be looking elsewhere.
Bourne has never been a volume target earner, something that makes his single-digit aDOT and 8% red-zone target rate damning metrics when it comes to his path to returning any sort of value for the remainder of this season.
Hunter Henry, TE
Hunter Henry celebrated his 30th birthday on Saturday and enters this week having earned at least eight targets in each of his past three games (Trey McBride is the only other TE who can claim such an active streak).
The quality of those targets is, naturally, a concern. Henry hasn’t had a chunk play (20+ yards) since the team returned from its London date with the Jaguars and his 63.3% catch rate over the past month isn’t exactly a floor elevator. In a PPR setting, you can stream this direction, as it is very possible that he was cut during the bye week.
The Cardinals allow opponents to complete 69.4% of passes (fourth highest), a defensive flaw that should bring double-digit fantasy points into the conversation.
I have Henry ranked outside of my top 12 (one touchdown this season), but he’s easily ahead of Kyle Pitts, Cade Otton, and Cole Kmet this week.