It’s a new era for the New England Patriots.
Gone is legendary head coach Bill Belichick, and in is Jerod Mayo as the franchise’s new lead man.
There’s been plenty of shakeup in New England over the last few months, but the team’s lead back from a year ago is back in the fold. The team did, however, add an intriguing new option in the backfield via free agency.
With all that in mind, here’s a look at the fantasy football outlook for the Patriots’ running back room this upcoming season.
Rhamondre Stevenson’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR fantasy Points: 222.8 (172.0 Non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 987.7
- Rushing Touchdowns: 6.3
- Receptions: 50.8
- Receiving Yards: 331.8
- Receiving Touchdowns: 0.4
If he continues to see the majority of the rushing work while returning to the elite usage in the passing game we saw from him in 2022 — 69 receptions for 421 yards on 88 targets — then Stevenson does have top-15 fantasy upside on volume alone despite being in a bad offense.
For some context, we saw the New York Jets’ offense finish 29th or lower in every major statistical category last season, and Breece Hall still managed to finish the year as the RB2 overall.
Yet, if Stevenson splits with another back like he did with Ezekiel Elliott — which is what the signing of Antonio Gibson would suggest — then Stevenson is going to have trouble finishing as a top-24 RB on a weekly basis in a middling offense.
Speaking of the middling offense, Stevenson had a -4.64 game script rating in an offense that constantly saw itself operating from behind in lower-scoring affairs. This is evident by the Patriots generating a league-worst 36 trips to the red zone last season.
This lack of scoring opportunities certainly caps the fantasy upside of a player who had a breakaway run rate of just 1.9% because of Stevenson’s inability to consistently create explosive plays.
The drop in efficiency last year was noteworthy, too. Stevenson averaged 5.0 yards per carry during his breakout campaign in 2022 only to see that number drop 4.0 last season while splitting work with Elliott.
– Derek Tate, Fantasy Football Analyst
Antonio Gibson’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR fantasy Points: 139.9 (104.1 Non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 485.1
- Rushing Touchdowns: 2.9
- Receptions: 35.8
- Receiving Yards: 272.7
- Receiving Touchdowns: 1.8
If we’re drafting RBs on bad offenses, at the very least, we want the ones who are going to touch the ball a lot. But with Stevenson around, that’s not going to happen for Gibson.
In Stevenson’s best season, he was a Rhamonster in the passing game (you see what I did there). But the coaching staff didn’t exactly want to use him in a three-down role.
The best hope for Gibson is that he fully takes over the passing-down role. After all, he is a former collegiate wide receiver with excellent receiving skills.
As ineffective as Gibson was from a fantasy perspective last season, he still saw a solid 10.6% target share and, most notably, was actually quite good when he got the ball in his hands.
Gibson averaged 5.8 yards per touch, fourth in the league. His 5.11 yards created per touch was second, and his 23% evaded tackles per touch rate was 12th.
Now, to be fair, Gibson had the benefit of facing light boxes on 64.6% of his carries, the second-highest rate in the NFL. That often happens with backup running backs, yet he didn’t perform any better in this situation than others.
Regardless, any standalone fantasy value Gibson may have stems from his role as a receiver. His upside is based on taking over as the lead back if Stevenson gets hurt.
Taking backup RBs behind established starters on bad offenses is not exactly the best way to draft. However, Gibson is going off the board as the RB49 (No. 171 overall). There aren’t many backs around him that are overly exciting. At the very least, Gibson’s path to fantasy relevance is clear, even if his ceiling isn’t all that high.
– Jason Katz, Fantasy Football Analyst