The New England Patriots enter Week 18 with the dubious honor of the No. 1 overall pick of the 2025 NFL Draft under their control. The Patriots moved into the top spot last week following the New York Giants victory over the Indianapolis Colts, and now New England is in the weird situation of the dreaded “tank” word.
The Patriots entered Week 18 tied with the Cleveland Browns, Tennessee Titans, and Giants at 4-12. However, due to its lower strength of schedule (SOS), New England currently has an all-important tiebreaker regarding the No. 1 overall selection.
Let’s examine the scenarios for New England to clinch the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, including what it means if they beat the Buffalo Bills in Week 18.
Update: The Tennessee Titans have clinched the No. 1 overall pick. The Browns have the second pick, the Giants at No. 3, and the Patriots at No. 4.
What Are the New England Patriots’ Scenarios for Picking No. 1 Overall in the 2025 NFL Draft?
The Patriots’ SOS is 0.467, significantly below that of the Titans (0.515), Browns (0.544), and Giants (0.551). None of those three teams can finish Week 18 with a lower SOS than New England, meaning that if the Patriots lose to the Bills this week, they will clinch the No. 1 pick.
The highest SOS that New England can finish with is 0.478, which requires the following results to occur:
- The Cincinnati Bengals defeat the Pittsburgh Steelers
- The Chicago Bears defeat the Green Bay Packers
- The Los Angeles Chargers defeat the Las Vegas Raiders
If that scenario plays out, the lowest SOS that the Titans, Browns, or Giants can finish with is 0.516. Therefore, if the Patriots win, no one can jump them for the No. 1 pick.
However, if New England manages to defeat Buffalo on Sunday, it will lose the No. 1 pick after the Browns’ loss on Saturday in Baltimore. If the Patriots win, they needed the Titans, Browns, and Giants to also win to secure the No. 1 pick. Similarly, if the Patriots and Bills tie, New England needed the Browns, Titans, and Giants to all tie or win their games as well.
If the Patriots win or tie, the best they can do in terms of their draft pick is the No. 2 overall pick. Even then, they would need both the Titans and Giants to match or better their result.
The good news for New England is that they don’t have to worry about any of the teams who currently have four wins. The only four-win team that is even close to the Patriots in terms of SOS is the Jacksonville Jaguars, who cannot finish with a lower SOS than New England.
Our projections give the Patriots a 50-50 win probability over the Bills this week, which gives New England a 50% chance of finishing the season with the No. 1 pick in 2024.