There is no way of sugarcoating the New England Patriots’ disastrous season, which was highlighted by their dreadful performances in their loss to the Los Angeles Chargers on Saturday of Week 17. However, that loss has left them in a strong position to potentially pick No. 1 overall in the 2025 NFL Draft.
Using the PFN NFL Playoff Predictor, let’s examine the Patriots’ path to the No. 1 overall pick in Green Bay, Wisc., next April.
What Are the New England Patriots’ Scenarios for Picking No. 1 Overall in the 2025 NFL Draft?
With their loss on Saturday, the Patriots put themselves in the frame for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. They are assured of heading to Week 18 with only three wins and sitting at the top of the projected NFL draft order.
The Giants held the first pick entering Week 17, being the only team in the league with just two wins. but they won in Week 17 to move to three wins. If two or more teams are tied in terms of their winning percentage, then the first NFL Draft tiebreaker is strength of schedule (SOS), with the team having the lowest SOS getting the higher pick in the first round.
After the 4 p.m. slate on Sunday of Week 17, the Giants had a SOS of 0.550, while the Patriots are at 0.469. Among the teams with three wins, the Patriots have the lowest SOS right now, with the Tennessee Titans (0.511) and Cleveland Browns (0.539) both having a higher SOS.
The Patriots are now effectively in a position where they control their own destiny. Their maximum SOS after Week 18 is 0.481, and no other team with three wins can finish lower than that. Therefore, if the Patriots lose in Week 18, they will pick first in the 2025 NFL Draft. However, they are set to face a Buffalo Bills team that could be resting its starters, which increases the Patriots’ chances of winning in Week 18.
If the Patriots were to win in Week 18, they would go to four wins. At that point, they would need the Titans, Giants, and Browns to all get to four wins to have any chance of having the No. 1 pick. If that were to happen, it would be between the Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12) and the Patriots for the No. 1 overall pick.
The Jaguars currently have a 0.472 SOS and can finish anywhere between 0.464 and 0.484. That is a similar range to the Patriots (0.460-0.481), meaning that the No. 1 overall pick could be extremely close between those two if the Patriots, Titans, Giants, and Browns were all to get to four wins.
If the two teams were to be tied in terms of winning percentage and SOS, the Patriots would pick first, as they lost to the Jaguars in London earlier this season. After SOS, the head-to-head record is the next tiebreaker.