If you were among the few holding out hope for a competitive New England Patriots season in 2024, it might be time to move on.
I, too, believed there was a path to at least seven wins for the Patriots. But cracks in my argument formed after Christian Barmore was diagnosed with blood clots, and the foundation is now in ruin after Matthew Judon was traded to the Atlanta Falcons.
But that doesn’t mean the Patriots made the wrong decision. They probably made the right one, but the move carries significant near- and long-term risk.
Does Matthew Judon Trade Signal Patriots Are Tanking?
Judon’s contract drama was the second-biggest story of Patriots training camp, trailing only Drake Maye’s underwhelming practice performance. The star edge rusher began camp by going public with his desire for a new deal, and the ensuing two-plus weeks saw Judon throw a temper tantrum at practice and deliver another bizarre news conference.
Along the way, he called out the Patriots on social media and stopped interacting with fans on the practice field — a staple of his Augusts in Foxboro. To Judon’s credit, he appeared engaged and effective in most practices.
But his Patriots story reportedly ended with a Wednesday night trade to the pass-rush-needy Falcons, who sent a 2025 third-round pick to New England. It’s a move that boosted Atlanta’s chances of competing in 2024 while potentially cementing the rebuilding Patriots’ status as AFC bottom-dwellers.
Matthew Judon reacts to being traded to the Falcons: pic.twitter.com/mSnBcVK8m1
— Dakota Randall (@DakRandall) August 14, 2024
My theory for New England exceeding expectations was simple.
The defense, with Judon and Christian Gonzalez both back from injuries, would give the Patriots the floor of last year’s team, which won four games but was generally competitive despite catastrophic quarterback play. Insert Jacoby Brissett, a professional, responsible veteran, onto that team and it probably wins a few more games.
The receiving corps, led by potential breakout star DeMario Douglas and intriguing rookies Ja’Lynn Polk and K.J. Osborn, would improve upon last year’s group. The offensive line would be a work in progress, but the Patriots would figure out their left tackle issues while receiving above-average play from the other four spots.
As for coaching, Jerod Mayo undoubtedly would be a downgrade from Bill Belichick, but his experienced offensive assistants would be an upgrade over what we saw the last two seasons. It couldn’t get any worse than Matt Patricia, right?
Then account for yearly NFL weirdness — such as major injuries, surprising upsets, and game-changing penalties — and the Patriots suddenly would have a record that wouldn’t reflect how bad they actually were. That stuff happens every year in the NFL (see: last season’s 10-win Pittsburgh Steelers).
Well, the glass is no longer half full. It might be empty.
New England’s defense must border on elite for the Patriots to have any chance in 2024. Can that still happen with its best player, Barmore, potentially out for the season and its top pass rusher, Judon, in Atlanta? Probably not.
The O-line is in an even worse state. The interior is rock-solid, but the rotating cast of swing tackles has been terrible in training camp. I’m not being hyperbolic when I say Tuesday’s joint session with the Philadelphia Eagles produced the worst O-line practice performance I’ve ever seen.
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The receivers have shown promise, but K.J. Osborn has been a disappointment and Kendrick Bourne (ACL rehab) still can’t get on the field. The Patriots will be asking a lot of Douglas, Polk, and Javon Baker, who’ll need to get open in a hurry as pass rushers blow by New England’s turnstile tackles.
The Patriots aren’t stupid. They’ve seen what we’ve seen during training camp. And what we’ve all seen is a house of cards that might be nearing collapse. New England needs multiple key variables to break their way, but so far, they’re all going in the wrong direction.
Fans should brace for another 4-13 asteroid, and there isn’t a Bruce Willis-led group of oil drillers coming to save them. The Judon trade likely sealed that grim fate — and the Patriots know it.
But is de facto general manager Eliot Wolf waving a white flag (I’m not going to use the word “tanking”) — as some already have suggested — or doing what’s best for a rebuilding franchise? The answer probably lies somewhere in the middle.
Trading Judon Was the Right Call – But There’s Risk
Judon is a very good player. He posted 28 combined sacks in 2021 and 2022 and was on a sack-per-game pace in 2024 before suffering a season-ending bicep tear. Judon also was an energetic tone-setter for the defense and one of the Patriots’ only players with real star power.
But Judon is also 32 years old and coming off a major injury. Moreover, a player who’s never graded well against the run also posted a below-average 13% pass rush win rate last season, down from 18% from 2017 through 2021, per ESPN.
Given their current outlook, the Patriots shouldn’t be in the business of rewarding past performance by overpaying a declining asset. A Judon trade always made sense, especially before Barmore’s diagnosis.
Still, the Patriots got lucky.
The Falcons, desperate to compete after throwing way too much money at Kirk Cousins, needed edge help after neglecting the position during the offseason. They passed on drafting a pass rusher in Round 1, didn’t trade for Haason Reddick, and were hitching their wagons to third-round rookie Bralen Trice, who just suffered a season-ending knee injury.
For a team like the Falcons, Judon’s value suddenly spiked. And the Patriots capitalized by landing a third-round pick, a far better return than many expected.
“I talked to a couple executives,” NBC Sports Boston’s Phil Perry said in a Wednesday night segment. ” … One of them used the word ‘shocked’ to describe the return that the Patriots got. Figured that it would be a later-round pick. I think even the Patriots, if you gave them some truth serum, were surprised that they ended up getting a third-round pick.”
"I talked to a couple of executives tonight, one of them used the words 'shocked' to describe the return the Patriots got."@PhilAPerry on Matthew Judon trade 🗣️ pic.twitter.com/ljzOdYbFho
— NBC Sports Boston (@NBCSBoston) August 15, 2024
So, in a vacuum, the Judon trade makes sense. The Patriots should be thrilled with the return.
Furthermore, paying Judon could’ve sent a confusing message to the locker room as Mayo looks to build a new culture. With a youth movement underway, the Patriots don’t want young players believing that publicly airing contract grievances results in paydays. A line needs to be drawn somewhere.
Plus, New England spent its offseason re-signing most of its internal free agents and reworking deals for logical extension candidates.
The post-Belichick message is clear: With few exceptions, you’ll get paid if you play well and do things the right way.
There’s another way this could go, however.
Judon was beloved in the locker room, especially among younger defenders like Joshua Uche. The 25-year-old is among multiple Patriots who used social media to honor Judon after the trade.
Several Patriots players reacted to Matthew Judon being traded tonight, including Josh Uche, DeMario Douglas, Daniel Ekuale and Marcus Jones. pic.twitter.com/kC13V1u72V
— Greg Dudek (@gdudek10) August 15, 2024
How will those players react to the Patriots trading arguably the best player on the roster? Will they stick to the program or take cues from the front office and resign themselves to a lost season?
Of course, such a depressing nosedive wouldn’t guarantee failure in 2025. Yearly ineptitude didn’t prevent the Houston Texans from winning 10 games in 2023 after going 3-13-1 the previous season.
Things can change in a hurry in the NFL, especially when there’s hope at quarterback. TBD for the Patriots in that department.
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Still, New England needs to be careful. Losing can work like a virus, and the glory of the Tom Brady era isn’t a vaccine. The Patriots want to mirror the post-Brett Favre Green Bay Packers; right now, they’re looking more like the post-Dan Marino Miami Dolphins.
The snowball of suck grows bigger with every losing season. Before you know it, you’re caught in an avalanche with no way out, wishing you’d spent a few extra bucks that one year to keep your head above the downward flow.
The Patriots aren’t in such a precarious position, at least not yet. But the Judon trade could get them closer.
How Will the Patriots Replace Judon?
Believe it or not, the Patriots are relatively well-positioned to absorb the loss of Judon on the field. Losing Judon and Barmore is too much, but New England has strong in-house options on the edge.
Perhaps Uche (three sacks in 2023) will recapture his 2022 form when he posted 11.5 sacks. Second-year edge defender Keion White appears ready for a breakout and can play both standing up and with his hand in the dirt. Anfernee Jennings isn’t a great pass rusher but sets the best edge on the team. Veteran Deatrich Wise Jr. is 30 years old but remains rock-solid at defensive end.
And then there’s former New York Giant Oshane Ximines, one of the pleasant surprises of training camp. The sixth-year pro struggles against the run, but he’s flashed pass-rush upside all summer and was a top performer in the preseason opener.
That’s not to say Ximines will be Rob Ninkovich 2.0. But don’t be surprised to see him come out of nowhere to give the Patriots solid production this season.
Oshane Ximines popped as both a pass rusher and run defender vs the Panthers, continuing what's been an impressive summer
Given all the uncertainty surrounding the #Patriots OLBs, he could prove to be a valuable rotational piece along the DL pic.twitter.com/47zSXbRSSu
— Taylor Kyles (@tkyles39) August 9, 2024
The Patriots don’t have anyone with the immediate upside of Judon, who still might have a 15-sack season in him. Even the most optimistic Keion White projections don’t have the 2023 second-rounder playing at that level.
But New England has sneaky-good depth on the edge, and the group’s ceiling remains relatively high even without Judon. It just lacks someone who can strike fear into the hearts of opposing quarterbacks.
Updated List of Patriots’ 2025 NFL Draft Picks
Let’s wrap up with an updated look at the Patriots’ list of picks in the 2025 NFL Draft. New England isn’t projected to receive any compensatory picks, so the following list is set until the Patriots add or subtract picks via trades.
- Round 1 pick (own)
- Round 2 pick (own)
- Round 3 pick (own)
- Round 3 pick (via Falcons)
- Round 4 pick (own)
- Round 5 pick (own)
- Round 7 pick (own)
- Round 7 pick (via Los Angeles Chargers)
- Round 7 pick (via Tennessee Titans)