Jerod Mayo went 4-13 in his first (and final) season as the New England Patriots head coach, and Robert Kraft ultimately decided to make a coaching change.
Now, the Patriots have reportedly hired Mike Vrabel, the former Tennessee Titans head coach and Patriots linebacker who won three Super Bowl rings in New England.
Patriots Hire Mike Vrabel as Next Head Coach
NFL insider Adam Schefter reported on Sunday morning that Vrabel, who was described as “the most desirable coaching candidate,” officially inked a multi-year deal with the Patriots.
The Patriots entered contract negotiations with Vrabel on Saturday night and it seemed a deal was close, so this news wasn’t a surprise.
Homecoming: Mike Vrabel and the Patriots reached a multi-year agreement to make him New England’s next head coach, per sources.
Vrabel now is the seventh individual to become the head coach for a franchise he once helped win a Super Bowl as a player, joining Jerod Mayo, Bart… pic.twitter.com/LR3cpdHNQf
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) January 12, 2025
Vrabel had also interviewed with the New York Jets and Chicago Bears, but now he will return to New England, where he played for eight seasons.
Throughout the course of Vrabel’s coaching career, he has a 54-45 record in the regular season and a 2-3 record in the postseason.
Why Vrabel Is the Right Hire For New England
Let’s examine Vrabel’s coaching career and why he’s the right hire for the Patriots.
Won’t Clash With Ownership
Vrabel makes a ton of sense for New England, given his ties to Kraft and the organization.
Vrabel had various conflicts with Tennessee Titans owner Amy Adams Strunk that played a factor in his downfall. Specifically, reporting from The Athletic highlighted a divide that arose after Vrabel reportedly “wanted full control over the roster,” becoming a de facto general manager.
However, Vrabel and Kraft have a well-publicized strong personal relationship. It’s unclear whether Vrabel will have personnel control in New England or how that would impact current Executive VP of Player Personnel Eliot Wolf, but both parties are likely to be on the same page about Vrabel’s expectations and preferred staff.
That doesn’t necessarily guarantee that Vrabel would choose an effective personnel evaluator or develop into a capable GM himself, but it does remove the likelihood of a significant miscommunication between ownership and the head coach.
Given the disconnect that Vrabel experienced with the Titans (and the one that emerged between Mayo and the Krafts), this is an important obstacle to remove.
Raises the Defensive Ceiling
In Tennessee, Vrabel’s teams weren’t always effective, but they did finish eighth in PFN’s Defense+ metric in 2021 and 12th in 2022. The Patriots fell from ninth in Defense+ in 2023 to 30th in 2024.
Now, the Patriots can expect to field a better run defense in 2025. From 2018-23, Tennessee ranked fourth in defensive EPA per rush (0.11) and seventh in rushing defense success rate (63%).
The 2024 Patriots had a below-average run defense, ranking 23rd in EPA per rush and 20th in run defense success rate.
Vrabel’s Teams Have Overachieved
When Arthur Smith was the Titans’ offensive coordinator from 2019-20 under Vrabel, Tennessee ranked fifth in points per game and second in yards per play behind only the Kansas City Chiefs. Tennessee ranked in the top 10 in scoring offenses for both seasons, the first time since a seven-season stretch from 1987 to 1993 (when they were the Houston Oilers) that the franchise fielded consecutive top-10 PPG offenses.
In PFN’s Offense+ metric, the Titans were the No. 6 offense in 2019, then improved to No. 2 in 2020. Ryan Tannehill was graded out as one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the league, finishing fifth in PFN’s QB+ metric in both seasons.
One way to measure whether a team is overachieving is to look at betting data. If a team is covering more often than other teams, that indicates it’s outperforming its public perception. From 2021-22, the Titans covered 56% of their games, the seventh-best mark in the NFL over that span. Tennessee also covered 56% of its games during the 2019 season, when it became the sixth No. 6 seed ever to make the Conference Championship.
So, in three of Vrabel’s six seasons, the Titans significantly exceeded expectations, measured by their performance against the spread. The Titans won on the margins, particularly when it came to penalties and turnovers. During Vrabel’s tenure, Tennessee had the third-best penalty margin, committing 88 fewer penalties than their opponents from 2018-23.
Disciplined Team
The Titans won on the margins, particularly when it came to penalties and turnovers. During Vrabel’s tenure, the Titans had the third-best penalty margin, committing 88 fewer penalties than their opponents from 2018-23. In addition, Tennessee committed the fourth-fewest turnovers overall in that span.
On a per-drive basis, only the Green Bay Packers (led by Aaron Rodgers), New Orleans Saints (led by Drew Brees for three seasons), and Seattle Seahawks (led by Russell Wilson) committed fewer turnovers than the Titans from 2018-23.
Why Vrabel May Struggle With the Patriots
Now, let’s examine some potential red flags that could spell trouble for Vrabel’s tenure with the Patriots.
Will He Pick the Right Offensive Coordinator?
As previously mentioned, the Titans’ offense was excellent from 2019-20. However, in all other seasons, Vrabel’s Titans never finished higher than 15th in PPG and ranked 27th or lower in the other three seasons.
After his back-to-back top-five seasons in QB+, Tannehill fell to 21st in 2021, improved to 14th in 2022, then cratered to 30th in 2023. Smith’s contract as the Pittsburgh Steelers offensive coordinator extends through 2027, so he’s unlikely to be an option for the Patriots to reunite with Vrabel.
There’s a case to be made for keeping Alex Van Pelt: rookie Drake Maye finished 19th in QB+ (74.7, C), one spot behind Denver Broncos rookie Bo Nix for second-best among rookie quarterbacks behind Jayden Daniels (ninth). However, the Patriots were still a well-below-average offense overall with Maye, which could result in Vrabel changing offensive coordinators.
In 10 games where Maye played the majority of the offensive snaps, the Patriots averaged 17.9 points per game and -0.07 EPA per play. That would have ranked 30th in PPG and 25th in EPA per play.
Will Leaning on the Run Work Without Derrick Henry?
During Vrabel’s tenure, the Titans had the second-highest designed run rate (48%) behind only the Baltimore Ravens. This was a run-first unit that leaned heavily on prime Derrick Henry to serve as the engine of the offense.
Of course, the Patriots don’t have anything close to Henry or the rest of the Titans’ rushing offense operations. On running back carries this past season, New England ranked 27th in yards per rush (4.0), 29th in EPA per rush (-0.16) and 29th in success rate (33%).