Jerod Mayo went 4-13 in his first (and final) season as the New England Patriots’ head coach, and his final win over the Buffalo Bills was costly, dropping New England from the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft to the No. 4 selection.
In recent weeks, many fans and analysts called for a coaching change. Well, Robert Kraft and Co. listened, parting ways with Mayo shortly after the team’s final game. Let’s examine the pros and cons of Mayo’s tenure, and why the Patriots decided to make this move.
What Went Wrong For Jerod Mayo?
Offensive Line
The Patriots allowed pressure at the second-highest (30.5%) rate this season. New England was slightly above average in this respect in 2023 prior to Mayo, a ranking that needed to be sustained with rookie Drake Maye under center rather than tanking.
Of course, some of that blame falls on Maye, but the head coach is responsible for developing a plan, and the plan to keep the rookie quarterback comfortable failed.
Key Offensive Spots
A rookie quarterback can skew some of the offensive numbers, but scheming is magnified in tight windows, and the Patriots failed that test at every turn in 2024. This season, New England ranked 29th in third down conversion rate (34.9%) and 30th in red zone efficiency (46.8%).
The elite offenses are going to produce, but the ranking of the middle tier will be separated on the margins. Even in the scope of the teams working in a franchise QB, the Patriots’ inability to finish off drives was alarming:
Red Zone TD% (Ranks)
- Washington Commanders: 63.4% (6th)
- Denver Broncos: 62.3% (7th)
- Chicago Bears: 62.2% (8th)
- New England Patriots: 46.8% (30th)
What Went Right For Mayo?
QB Development
The Patriots drafted Maye less than four months after hiring Mayo, tying the two at the hip, as it was presumably his first impact decision for this franchise.
While there were some ups and downs during his first season, Mayo put Maye in a position to develop, and we saw enough of that potential flash to believe that this team has its signal-caller of the future.
Maye was empowered to use his athleticism as a weapon, which opened up spots to show off his arm talent. Twice, he posted top-five QB+ grades for the week (Week 13 against the Colts and Week 16 in Buffalo), which puts him on a path to be a difference-maker as this franchise builds up its supporting cast.
Maye did enough to be viewed as the Patriots’ quarterback of the future, but Mayo didn’t show enough to keep his job alongside him.
Timed Execution on Offense
Mayo had a rookie quarterback for most of the season and an underachieving defense, and yet, his team ranked seventh in point differential over the final two minutes of halves (+20).
For a first-year coach, the ability to have his team show some composure in those spots is critical and will be a valued trait should a more talented team come calling – the margins are so thin in this sport, and winning those moments can be the difference in a few games per season.
What Did Mayo Say Prior To Getting Fired?
Mayo seemed to know this move was coming, as he was quite combative with the media after the Patriots’ Week 18 win over Buffalo.
“For me, it’s all about just this game, to go back to the start. It’s all about this game, and we’ll talk about that tomorrow,” Mayo said when asked if he expected to be back as head coach next year.
“… At some point in time here, I’ll have my normal meeting with the Krafts and we’ll see where it goes from there.”
Did ownership or the front office speak to Mayo before the game about how they wanted to approach Week 18 (with the No. 1 pick on the line)?
“Not at all,” Mayo said. “Just goes back to anytime we step foot on the field, we want to win. I’m the head coach of the football team, and anytime we step foot on the field, we want to win.”
When asked how he would summarize this year and whether he learned that the team is a bit further away from competing than he was anticipating, Mayo shot it down.
“I’m not going to get into that,” he said. “Like I said, tomorrow we’ll have a lot of time to talk about those things, but tonight, it’s all about these guys going out there and winning a football game.”
It turns out, Mayo didn’t have tomorrow to talk about those things, as he was fired shortly after the press conference.
Who Could the Patriots Hire to Replace Mayo?
There are several directions that New England could go to replace Mayo, but two candidates stand out: former Tennessee Titans head coach Mike Vrabel and Minnesota Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores.
Mike Vrabel
On Sunday morning, NFL insider Adam Schefter identified Vrabel as “the most desirable coaching candidate” and said he’s a lock to get a head coaching job. Vrabel makes a ton of sense for New England given his ties to Kraft and the organization.
Vrabel has expressed interest in the Patriots’ job in recent weeks, according to Jeff Howe of The Athletic. Vrabel is a hot commodity that is highly sought after by several teams. He’s already interviewed with the Patriots’ division rivals, the New York Jets (although there are some rumblings that he took the interview to force New England’s hand).
Kraft would probably love to bring home the prodigal son as Vrabel played on three Super Bowl-winning teams with the Patriots during his career.
When Arthur Smith was the Titans’ offensive coordinator from 2019-20 under Vrabel, Tennessee ranked fifth in points per game and second in yards per play behind only the Kansas City Chiefs. Tennessee ranked in the top 10 in scoring offenses for both seasons, the first time since a seven-season stretch from 1987 to 1993 (when they were the Houston Oilers) that the franchise fielded consecutive top-10 PPG offenses.
In PFN’s Offense+ metric, the Titans were the No. 6 offense in 2019, then improved to No. 2 in 2020. Ryan Tannehill was graded out as one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the league, finishing fifth in PFN’s QB+ metric in both seasons.
One way to measure whether a team is overachieving is to look at betting data. If a team is covering more often than other teams, that indicates it’s outperforming its public perception. From 2021-22, the Titans covered 56% of their games, the seventh-best mark in the NFL over that span. Tennessee also covered 56% of its games during the 2019 season, when it became the sixth No. 6 seed ever to make the Conference Championship round.
So, in three of Vrabel’s six seasons, the Titans significantly exceeded expectations, measured by their performance against the spread. The Titans won on the margins, particularly when it came to penalties and turnovers. During Vrabel’s tenure, Tennessee had the third-best penalty margin, committing 88 fewer penalties than their opponents from 2018-23.
Brian Flores
Flores is a schematic problem solver. Tasked with revamping a Vikings defense that was light on talent in 2023, the former Miami Dolphins head coach made it work.
He sent blitzes (49.3%) and dropped eight into coverage (20.8%) at league-high rates, per TruMedia, while guiding a defense that somehow finished 11th in DVOA.
He got his start in New England under Belichick, so it’s sort of home (although that didn’t work out too well for Mayo…).
Flores has maintained his diabolical sense of scheming this season, playing a large part in Minnesota’s standout season. Sam Darnold gets a lot of attention, and he deserves it, but this defense has played a huge role in the sustained success throughout 2024:
- Points Per Drive Allowed: 1st
- Interception Rate: 1st
- Opponent Passer Rating: 1st
- Opponent Three-and-Out Rate: 6th
In all three stops as the defensive play-caller or head coach, Flores improved the defense:
- Flores took over as the Patriots’ defensive play-caller in 2018 following the departure of Matt Patricia and saw New England jump from 27th in EPA per play to seventh.
- Flores’ Dolphins defense ranked 30th in EPA per play in his first season in 2019, but it jumped to fourth in 2020 and finished sixth in 2021.
- Flores’ Vikings defense ranked 20th in EPA per play in his first season as defensive coordinator in 2023 but ranked second in 2024.
From a Defense+ perspective, the Dolphins improved every year, going from 32nd in 2019 to eighth in 2020 and sixth in 2021. Similarly, the Vikings have gone from 23rd in Defense+ in 2023 to third in 2024.
Unlike many members of Bill Belichick’s coaching staff, Flores has shown the ability to adapt his scheme to his current surroundings. For example, the Patriots traditionally played high levels of man coverage, which Flores brought to the Dolphins. Miami played the highest level of man coverage in the NFL (50%) during Flores’ head-coaching tenure from 2019-21.
However, the Vikings have played man coverage at the fourth-lowest rate (18%) during Flores’ two seasons in Minnesota. He’s managed to turn man coverage into an effective change-up pitch without relying on it, as the Vikings average the second-highest EPA per play in man coverage since 2023.
Also, during Flores’ tenure, the Dolphins committed the seventh-fewest penalties, leading to the third-best penalty yardage differential (651 fewer penalty yards than their opponents). In addition, Miami had a roughly neutral turnover differential under Flores, but much of that was due to the putrid 2019 team. From 2020-21, the Dolphins had the ninth-best turnover differential and forced the fourth-most turnovers in the league on defense.