The New England Patriots will face the Arizona Cardinals in Week 15. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Patriots and Cardinals skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 15 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Drake Maye, QB | NE
There’s a lot to like here, that much we know. Drake Maye’s athleticism creates highlights, but don’t overlook the fact that he has completed at least 80% of his non-pressured passes in three of his past four games. The Patriots seem to have found “their guy” for years to come, but let’s not put the cart before the horse.
For the season, Maye has one finish better than QB12 this season (Week 7). He’s averaging 5.6 fantasy points per game with his legs over his past six games, and that includes a game he left early — there certainly is some cheatcode potential in this profile.
Part of what makes an athletic QB dangerous is not what he does with his legs, but how he is defended due to the fear of his legs. Look at Anthony Richardson. Why has he been able to hit some home run pass plays this season?
Spoiler alert, it’s not because of his precision as a thrower. Whether you want to blame it on Maye directly or supporting cast limitations, I don’t really care — he’s not feared down the field right now. Through eight starts (nine appearances), he’s completed just nine-of-38 deep passes (23.7%) with three interceptions.
The Cardinals are a top-12 defense in most long pass metrics this season. Until Maye starts to pick up production in that regard, I’m going to have a hard time trusting him with my fantasy season on the line.
You could do worse, but I prefer the floor that Brock Purdy and Jared Goff types offer, even if the theoretical ceiling isn’t quite the same.
Kyler Murray, QB | ARI
During this three-game losing streak, Kyler Murray has completed just 9 of 30 pressured passes with zero touchdowns and five interceptions. With his rushing numbers trending down, those passing numbers are alarming, even more so when you consider this matchup.
The Patriots, on the whole, are not overly aggressive, but we’ve seen them ramp things up in specific spots, and this could be such a situation.
Four games with at least a 40% blitz rate
Five games with a pressure rate of at least 33.3%
It’s been a coin toss this season if Murray will finish as a QB1 (five such finishes). This week, I have him on the wrong side of that equation, opting to rank his opposing number in this game above him.
James Conner, RB | ARI
James Conner has seen at least three targets in nine straight games and has 17+ carries in five of his past seven, making him the owner of one of the most consistent roles in the sport.
Might the Cardinals finally be operating in a positive game script? If that’s the case, I like Conner’s chances of giving you top-15 production against a below-average defense in all metrics.
Conner has cleared 100 total yards in each of Arizona’s past two wins — I think he makes it three straight on Sunday.
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB | NE
Rhamondre Stevenson finished three of his first five games this season as an RB1, but he’s been better than the RB18 in just two games since. Those extended struggles include his last four contests, a run of games that has seen him produce 33.7% fewer fantasy points than expected.
The hole in this profile is one that I thought we could look past coming into the season. During this recent four-game dip in value, Stevenson has just 42 receiving yards, a lack of versatility that is concerning when you consider that Drake Maye is going to soak up some of the rushing and scoring equity.
The fact that I don’t trust the Cardinals to pull ahead in a significant way and that they rank as the fourth-worst run defense per success rate has me ranking Stevenson as a viable Flex option.
Is that more of a situational ranking than a talent play? It is, and there’s nothing wrong with that — you need to beg, borrow, and steal to get your fantasy points this time of year.
Trey Benson, RB | ARI
Trey Benson was a logical pick-and-stash option all season long, but James Conner has stayed as healthy as ever, and that has left the rookie on the bench.
Benson isn’t close to stand-alone value (under five carries in each game during Arizona’s three-game skid) and doesn’t need to be held if you need value out of every player. That said, if you have a loaded team and/or a bye this week, I’m very interested in adding a handcuff like this as a luxury piece at the end of your roster.
DeMario Douglas, WR | NE
DeMario Douglas hasn’t reached 65 receiving yards since Week 6, as he fills a weird void of a traditionally consistent role in a non-traditional offense that lacks consistency.
That’s simply not ideal. Douglas’ 77.4% catch rate since the beginning of November is a step in the right direction for PPR managers, and a matchup against a Cardinals defense that ranks below league average when defending the slot in yards per attempt, yards per completion, and touchdown rate is far from intimidating.
You’re grasping for straws to a degree (one game with 12 expected PPR points over his past seven, and only one of his 341 routes has netted an end-zone target). But desperate PPR managers have a path to a handful of catches in an offense that has a higher implied total this week than normal, given the opponent and favorable forecast.
Kendrick Bourne, WR | NE
Kendrick Bourne saw his snap share increase in consecutive games before the Week 14 bye, and his recent efficiency has been noteworthy (11 catches on 13 targets). The early returns in his connection with Drake Maye are encouraging, and I think we could be looking at a sneaky late-round pick this summer (assuming he remains with the team) as a veteran option on a developing offense — but for this winter, you should be looking elsewhere.
Bourne has never been a volume target earner, something that makes his single-digit aDOT and 8% red-zone target rate damning metrics when it comes to his path to returning any sort of value for the remainder of this season.
Marvin Harrison Jr., WR | ARI
Rashod Bateman and Diontae Johnson.
Those are two receivers that I’m guessing you’ve spent very little brain power on this season. They both have three finishes inside the top 20 PPR receivers this season, the same number as Marvin Harrison Jr.
The high-pedigree rookie has been disappointing by any measure, and I wish I could tell you that things will trend in a positive direction, but I can’t.
Harrison’s slot rate has declined in three straight games as the layup targets continue to go to Trey McBride, while the first-year receiver is assuming a role that is nearly exclusively made up of highly difficult targets.
On the bright side, Harrison has seen multiple end-zone targets in consecutive games and 12 this season. With 45 catches on 86 targets this season, the hopes of efficiency are gone. So as long as you acknowledge that the upside you’re chasing here hinges on touchdowns, I’m okay with you continuing to bet on Harrison, even if the risk is far greater than we want.
I’m hopeful that New England being ranked 29th in pressure rate (29.8% of opponent dropbacks) allows us to see flashes of a downfield connection between Kyler Murray and Harrison — he’s my WR30 for Week 15.
Michael Wilson, WR | ARI
Michael Wilson scored from 41 yards out on Arizona’s first drive last week. He now has a deep reception in three straight games, a run coming on the heels of a four-game stretch that saw him earn a total of one downfield look.
The big play was nice to see and will fuel some of my continued support of Wilson as a long-term asset. Still, I can’t rank him as a Flex-worthy play as we come down the stretch.
The second-year receiver has cleared 6.5 expected PPR points in just one of his past five games, and until we see him earn targets at an average rate, going in this direction comes with more risk than reward.
If we get word that Christian Gonzalez is going to be a full-time Marvin Harrison shadow, the upside case increases here, though I think we’re still looking at more of a DFS play than anything for the final month of this season.
Hunter Henry, TE | NE
Hunter Henry celebrated his 30th birthday on Saturday and enters this week having earned at least eight targets in each of his past three games (Trey McBride is the only other TE who can claim such an active streak).
The quality of those targets is, naturally, a concern. Henry hasn’t had a chunk play (20+ yards) since the team returned from its London date with the Jaguars and his 63.3% catch rate over the past month isn’t exactly a floor elevator. In a PPR setting, you can stream this direction, as it is very possible that he was cut during the bye week.
The Cardinals allow opponents to complete 69.4% of passes (fourth highest), a defensive flaw that should bring double-digit fantasy points into the conversation.
I have Henry ranked outside of my top 12 (one touchdown this season), but he’s easily ahead of Kyle Pitts, Cade Otton, and Cole Kmet this week.
Trey McBride, TE | ARI
I continue to rank Trey McBride over Brock Bowers and I don’t feel bad about it in season-long leagues or in dynasty. Is the profile really that different?
McBride has posted three straight top-five finishes at the position, but the production isn’t what I’m tracking. He has at least a dozen targets in each of those games (all Cardinal losses), joining Travis Kelce and Tony Gonzalez as the only tight ends with a run like that since 2000.
He’s getting all of the volume that Bowers does, but with more offensive upside, right? I’m not suggesting that this Kyler Murray-led offense comes without risk, but if you’re giving me plus-level involvement, I’m taking the Cardinals’ offensive trajectory in a meaningful game over that of the Raiders in a spot where losses hold value.