Sunday Night Football in Week 16 might not be the most exciting option for many with the New England Patriots facing the Denver Broncos. However, we could get a winter wonderland feel up in Denver with snow forecast throughout the day. In a potential battle between two strong defenses, what should we expect to see this week?
Our NFL betting experts have cast their eyes over the odds to give their Patriots vs. Broncos predictions and picks for this week.
New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos Betting Lines
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- Spread
Broncos -7.5 - Moneyline
Patriots +280, Broncos -350 - Total
35.5
Patriots vs. Broncos Predictions and Expert Picks
Ben Rolfe: The NFL appears to have given football fans the perfect present: a game you can follow from your phone so you can spend some time with your family on Christmas Eve.
This game is not likely to get many pulses racing — unless you are a Denver Broncos fan with a nervous disposition.
The Broncos have not been great at covering this season, so laying a touchdown feels like a lot. The weather could also be a factor in this game, so the easiest play for me here is to tease the Broncos down to -1.5 and take the total up to 41.5.
Pick: Broncos -1.5 and Under 41.5
David Bearman: Denver’s defense had been doing great until it ran into the Detroit Lions’ buzzsaw on Saturday night. The Patriots are not the Lions. Not even close. I expect a slow-played, low-scoring game between these two. The Patriots have struggled all season on offense, no matter who is the QB.
We talk about how bad the New York Jets’ offense is, and the Patriots are even worse, averaging a league-low 13.3 points per game. The lone bright spot for the Pats this season has been their defense, which is a further push toward the under here. The opening total was 37, which I jumped all over. It’s now 34, which is dicey, but I lean under still.
Pick: Under 37 but pass at 34
Ryan Gosling: The Broncos are in desperation mode after a tough loss to the Lions last week. If they want to remain relevant in the playoff picture, they will need to bounce back against New England on Sunday Night Football. The Broncos are finally returning home after playing three straight road games, and their recent winning ways should ignite Mile High and their fans.
MORE: NFL Week 16 Against the Spread Standings
As confident as I am in the Broncos getting the win, they are still going up against a top-five defense in yards per play. If they are going to find success in this one, they will need to target their running backs to take advantage of New England’s biggest weakness. The Patriots have allowed an 84.5% catch rate to running backs with 7.4 yards per catch, so they’re susceptible to giving up numbers to that position.
New England is also decimated on the offensive line, and that is something this Denver pass rush should be able to capitalize on. Low-scoring prime-time under, with the Broncos laying less than a field goal? Give me that all day.
With the Broncos on extra rest and needing a win for their playoff hopes, I will bet on the home team.
Pick: Denver -1.5 and Under 41.5 (6-Point Teaser)
Kyle Soppe: The Broncos allow a league-high 5.2 yards per carry this season, and the Patriots are a top-10 offense in terms of rush rate over expectation, so it’s reasonable to expect a high usage day for Ezekiel Elliott.
He has accounted for 50 of 55 non-Rhamondre Stevenson RB carries over New England’s past three games, and with a defense that figures to keep them close, I have no problem in projecting Elliott for north of 15 carries in this game with at least a couple of targets.
This is a steep price for a player who hasn’t scored on the ground since October.
But the combination of role and matchup makes him the only option if you’re looking at the Patriots for an anytime-touchdown wager.
Pick: Ezekiel Elliott anytime touchdown (+155 at FanDuel)
Soppe: Ryland has been a disaster this season, but his big leg was a calling card during his collegiate days. Projecting the Pats for much offensive success isn’t a leap I’m willing to make, though banking on a shutdown effort from the Broncos also isn’t something I’m willing to type.
Points of any kind are going to be gold in this game, and this limited offense is unlikely to pass up a chance at a FG in favor of trying to extend a drive. The Broncos allow a league-high 2.7 FGA per game at home this season, and if that continues in this spot, we could cash a nice unique prop ticket heading into Christmas Day!
Pick: Chad Ryland over 1.5 FGM (+110 at DraftKings) or over 4.5 points (-125 at DraftKings)
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