Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes may have had a down fantasy season by his GOAT-level standards, but the organization’s commitment to retool the receiver room this offseason could help the passing game return to the ranks of the elite in 2024.
Considering the additions of Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy to this offense, should fantasy football managers be expecting a bounce-back year for Mahomes in 2024?
Patrick Mahomes’ 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Total Fantasy Points: 393.6
- Passing Yards: 5,099.7
- Passing TDs: 37.4
- Interceptions: 14.0
- Rushing Yards: 404.3
- Rushing TDs: 2.1
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 15. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Mahomes This Year?
The greatness we’ve seen from Mahomes through his six years as the starting quarterback of the Chiefs simply cannot be understated. Four Super Bowl appearances, three Super Bowl rings, two league MVPs, and advancing to the AFC Championship in every season as the starter is objectively the greatest start to any NFL career we’ve ever seen.
So, what do you get when you pair two of the fastest receivers in the league with a quarterback who is already entering the GOAT conversation at the age of 28? To me, that is the recipe for a big bounce-back fantasy campaign this upcoming season.
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Operating under the filter of impossibly high expectations, Mahomes had a down year in 2023 with a makeshift collection of pass catchers throughout the regular season. He still managed to produce another Super Bowl title.
Adding speedsters like Brown and Worthy into the mix alongside Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice, you have not only the potential for him to have another MVP season but also give the greatest player in the game a realistic route to a potential QB1 overall finish in 2024.
To give an idea of how great Mahomes has been during his time as the starter of the Chiefs, his 4,183 passing yards and 27 passing TDs marked the lowest per-game averages of his career and he still finished fifth in passing yards and eighth in passing touchdowns across the league in 2023.
When you take a closer look at his advanced metrics, a pessimist could dissect his 2023 campaign and make a case he wasn’t an elite fantasy option.
Patrick Mahomes 2023 Advanced Stats
- Air Yards Per Attempt: 6.5 (30th amongst QBs with 200+ passing attempts)
- Fantasy Points Per Passing Attempt: 0.41 (18th amongst QBs with 200+ passing attempts)
- TD to INT Ratio: 1.6 (18th amongst QBs with 200+ passing attempts)
- Fantasy Points Per Game: 18.4 (T-11th)
Do these numbers exist? Yes. Do I believe Mahomes’ play has regressed in any meaningful way? No. The Chiefs’ receiving corps was credited with 34 drops last year, certainly playing a role in his drop in overall production.
Ultimately, the offseason additions of two capable vertical threats, the emergence of Rice, and the sustained excellence we’ve seen from Kelce all help make Mahomes an elite fantasy option in 2024.
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Mahomes’ ADP at No. 36 overall in the third round as the QB3 off the board. Translation, if you want to go QB early in your fantasy draft, selecting the best quarterback in the league at the tail end of the third round is a very reasonable price point.
Due to the losses of the Buffalo Bills receiving corps this offseason and the head-scratching struggles we saw from the Philadelphia Eagles passing offense at the end of the year, Mahomes has a legitimate case to be the first quarterback taken in fantasy drafts in 2024.
Kyle Soppe’s Fantasy Analysis on Patrick Mahomes
While the lack of consistent pass-catching help didn’t stop the Chiefs from repeating as NFL champions, it certainly frustrated managers who invested draft capital in Mahomes. His 27 touchdown passes were 10 fewer than any of the three seasons prior, and his 7.0 yards per attempt were a career low.
Mahomes’ raw skills didn’t decline, and he set a career-high in completion percentage (67.2%), but the light usage of Rashee Rice in his rookie season and the managing of Travis Kelce kept his upside in check.
How much did it cap Mahomes’ potential? Those were the only two Chiefs to clear 460 receiving yards or 53 targets.
Mahomes also only had two games with 3+ touchdown passes (including the playoffs), a 10% rate that underwhelmed compared to his 44.8% over the three seasons prior.
Kansas City managed to win a title despite the lack of support for their future Hall of Famer, but their offseason actions suggest that the Chiefs are aware of the weight it put on Mahomes’ shoulders.
They made Xavier Worthy (75-1,014-5 at Texas last season) the 28th pick of the NFL Draft and inked Hollywood Brown (91-1,008-6 in 2021 with the Baltimore Ravens). At the very least, Kansas City intends to create the balance that this team had behind two-star pass catchers in 2021 when Mecole Hardman and Byron Pringle combined for 101 catches and 1,261 yards.
Of course, the Rice situation looms, and without him, you could argue that Mahomes has less support than he did a year ago. Thankfully, we should have clarity on his legal issues far before draft day, as that result holds Mahomes’ Tier 1 status in its hands.
