Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes had a down fantasy football season in 2023 by his lofty standards, and with continued uncertainty among his supporting cast, it’s fair to have questions about his ceiling. That said, the best passer in the game has proven to have a strong floor. But is that enough to be considered a Tier 1 fantasy signal-caller?
Should You Select Patrick Mahomes at His Current ADP?
ADP: 27th Overall (QB2)
Right now, with the status of his Rashee Rice remaining a mystery, Mahomes’ ADP is a bit of a moving target and the injury to Hollywood Brown doesn’t help. Drafters are hedging their bets to some degree, but he is still being selected as a Tier 1 signal caller.
Stay fluid. The QB position is filled with box-score stuffers, and the top end has plenty of question marks. Let the board come to you and have conviction in your rankings.
Lamar Jackson is coming off his second MVP, Anthony Richardson fits the physical profile of a QB that could take the fantasy world by storm, Kyler Murray gets a pass catcher with extreme pedigree … the list goes on and on.
The quarterback position and your evaluation of it could very easily determine your fate this season. Keep an eye on our consensus rankings as we run through the summer, but at this moment in time, here’s how I tier the signal-callers for 2024.
Tier 1
- Jalen Hurts, Eagles
- Josh Allen, Bills
- Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
Tier 2
- C.J. Stroud, Texans
- Anthony Richardson, Colts
- Lamar Jackson, Ravens
Tier 3
- Joe Burrow, Bengals
- Kyler Murray, Cardinals
- Dak Prescott, Cowboys
- Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins
Mahomes’ Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
While the lack of consistent pass-catching help didn’t stop the Chiefs from repeating as NFL champions, it certainly frustrated managers who invested draft capital in Mahomes. His 27 touchdown passes were 10 fewer than any of the three seasons prior, and his 7.0 yards per attempt were a career low.
Mahomes’ raw skills didn’t decline, and he set a career-high in completion percentage (67.2%), but the light usage of Rashee Rice in his rookie season and the managing of Travis Kelce kept his upside in check.
How much did it cap Mahomes’ potential? Those were the only two Chiefs to clear 460 receiving yards or 53 targets.
Mahomes also only had two games with 3+ touchdown passes (including the playoffs), a 10% rate that underwhelmed compared to his 44.8% over the three seasons prior.
Patrick Mahomes is not from this planet I am convinced! pic.twitter.com/dy7BHVWeA9
— Brad Henson Productions (@BradHensonPro) August 20, 2023
Kansas City managed to win a title despite the lack of support for their future Hall of Famer, but their offseason actions suggest that the Chiefs are aware of the weight it put on Mahomes’ shoulders.
They made Xavier Worthy (75-1,014-5 at Texas last season) the 28th pick of the NFL Draft and inked Hollywood Brown (91-1,008-6 in 2021 with the Baltimore Ravens). At the very least, Kansas City intends to create the balance that this team had behind two-star pass catchers in 2021 when Mecole Hardman and Byron Pringle combined for 101 catches and 1,261 yards.
Of course, the Rice situation looms, and without him, you could argue that Mahomes has less support than he did a year ago. Thankfully, we should have clarity on his legal issues far before draft day, as that result holds Mahomes’ Tier 1 status in its hands.