The Kansas City Chiefs will face the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Conference Championship Game. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding QB Patrick Mahomes.
Is Patrick Mahomes Playing vs. the Bills?
Mahomes was listed on the injury report this week for an ankle injury but was a full participant in practice throughout the week. He has no injury designation on the final injury report.
We’ll continue to monitor the Chiefs’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Should You Start or Sit Patrick Mahomes in the AFC Conference Championship Game?
Patrick Mahomes was fine and the Chiefs won.
I could have copied and pasted that sentence from maybe any one of a dozen Cheat Sheets from this season and it would have been just as true as it was last weekend. The Chiefs didn’t need their all-time QB to do much (177 yards on 25 attempts, 72.3 QB+ grade) and they had no issue in advancing past the Texans.
Can they pull that off this week?
I tend to think otherwise, but that may come down to the Bills’ defense and its plan of attack. They were a low-pressure team all regular season long, but they’ve opted for aggression thus far in the playoffs. It has resulted in their two highest pressure rates of the entire season (45.2% of Lamar Jackson’s dropbacks last week and 46.4% of Bo Nix’s in the Wild Card win).
If they can continue to get home, they might force Mahomes into a few mistakes, grind out long drives, and advance to the Super Bowl.
If they can’t, it’s going to be easy to look back at the pricing board this week and wonder why we didn’t load up on Mahomes exposure as the cheapest QB of the slate.
Since Week 9, when not pressured, Mahomes has completed 73.1% of his passes with 13 scores and no interceptions. This extended run of dominance was highlighted by a 19-of-22 performance in such spots against these Bills for 177 yards and two touchdowns. They were unable to make him uncomfortable in that game and that was a flaw this time last season, as they pressured him on just 32% of dropbacks in the 27-24 loss.
I don’t doubt that they will try to heat him up. But will they succeed?
Your answer to that question should drive a handful of lineup decisions in front of you. I think they will be able to, and thus I hope to get exposure to this Kansas City backfield. I believe that will be Andy Reid’s counter to Buffalo’s aggression. If you differ from me on that front, I’d suggest you go with a three-man Chiefs stack (Mahomes with whichever two pass catchers make you happy) and build out from there.
Mahomes has a 10+ yard run in six straight games. Maybe the Bills do speed him up and that results in more rushing yards. That could make a “naked” Mahomes build one of interest for those trying to be contrarian.
With only four teams to consider this week, there are only so many options. I think ironing out your stance on the Kansas City offense is among the first steps you want to take. This is a talented group of very reasonably priced options.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Conference Championship Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Patrick Mahomes’ Fantasy Points Projection in the AFC Conference Championship Game
As of Sunday morning, Mahomes is projected to score 15.7 fantasy points in the Conference Championship Game. This includes 208.1 passing yards, 1.5 passing touchdowns, and 0.7 interceptions. It also includes 3.2 rushing attempts for 16.4 yards and 0.1 touchdowns.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on the Bills' Defense
After finishing as a top-seven defense in each of the last three seasons, the Bills finished 18th during the regular season. That's not the biggest surprise given that this was largely billed as a rebuilding season for this unit.
Buffalo was a boom-or-bust defense in the Divisional Round vs. Baltimore, and there were just enough highs to escape with the win. In addition to the three takeaways, the Bills also generated their second-highest non-blitz pressure rate (42.9%) this season. The only higher rate was in the Wild Card win over the Broncos (50%).
This wasn't a particularly efficient defensive performance, as reflected in the final Defense+ grade of 69.9 (D+). Despite some run stuffs, the Bills had their worst rushing defense success rate all season (44%) and were fortunate the game script didn't allow the Ravens to lean more heavily on their run game.
Still, the Bills' offense is operating at such a high level that the bar to clear for the defense is lower than it would be on nearly any other team. Buffalo met that threshold with a few big plays against the Ravens. Those could be tougher to generate against a Chiefs offense that has gone eight straight games without a turnover, but it may be all the Bills need to finally conquer Kansas City.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.
Patrick Mahomes’ Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 11:45 PM ET on Saturday, January 25.
Conference Championship QB PPR Rankings
1) Josh Allen | BUF (at KC)
2) Jalen Hurts | PHI (vs. WAS)
3) Jayden Daniels | WAS (at PHI)
4) Patrick Mahomes | KC (vs. BUF)
Bills at Chiefs Trends and Insights
Buffalo Bills
Team: The Bills lost four road games during the regular season — only four Super Bowl champions in the 2000s have done that (2018 Patriots, 2012 Ravens, 2010 Packers, and 2006 Colts).
QB: Five times has a QB had four games in a season (playoffs included) with multiple rush touchdowns and 20 pass attempts.
- 2021 Jalen Hurts
- 2022 Jalen Hurts
- 2023 Jalen Hurts
- 2023 Josh Allen
- 2024 Josh Allen
No player has had five such games in a season.
Offense: The Bills have scored on at least 55% of their possessions six times this season, four of which have come against playoff teams.
Defense: Buffalo allowed Baltimore to pick up 70% of their third downs. That’s the fourth-highest rate the Bills have allowed in the 2000s and is their highest in a winning effort.
Fantasy: Allen has completed over 72% of his passes in both playoff wins – he had three such games during the regular season.
Betting: Overs are 5-2 in Buffalo’s past seven games, cashing last week by half a point with Baltimore's final touchdown.
Kansas City Chiefs
Team: Christmas Day 2023 was the date of Kansas City’s last home loss – each of their past six Arrowhead games have been decided by a single possession.
QB: Patrick Mahomes has thrown a total of three touchdown passes in his last two Championship games (3.7% of his attempts) after throwing three in each of his first four appearances (8.4%).
Offense: Saturday was the 10th time this season in which the Chiefs scored on at least half of their possessions (five-of-nine against Houston).
Defense: Opponents have picked up at least half of their third downs in four straight games against the Chiefs (Texans: 10-of-17).
Fantasy: In the last two games in which their starters have been extended, the Chiefs have managed to turn 42 carries into just 119 yards (2.83 yards per carry).
Betting: By taking an intentional safety at the end of their win over the Texans, the Chiefs snapped their six-game playoff cover streak.
